I often chat with Guilin in the group, and I have slightly different views on the recent trades. First of all, events themselves are very difficult to predict, and this market, at least for now, is driven by events. Both rises and falls are the same.
For example, who could have known last Friday that Moody's downgrade would suddenly be announced at market close? Who could have known that Besent's speech on Sunday night would stir market sentiment? Who could have known that China and the United States would tear each other apart again after reaching a strategic consensus?
These are all event-driven. If you can't predict events, and the results of the events are contrary to your position, then you either surrender or hold on. Both approaches are valid. The former allows you to quickly adjust your direction, while the latter bets on the limited impact of the event.
So even when opening a position, you should find your comfort zone, such as waiting for a stable oscillation range or judging whether there will be a rebound after a sudden drop (like the situation when U.S. stocks opened on Monday, where Moody's impact was limited). Yesterday, I accidentally missed the rebound of $BTC, so I sold $Coin and chased $MSTR. At least for now, this seems to be the right move, as long as Bitcoin performs well, MSTR's issues won't be significant.
Regarding concerns about the risk of collective lawsuits against MSTR, I previously posted an analysis stating that MSTR would not be affected in the short term. Most collective lawsuits have a litigation period of over two years.
This is also a certain level of understanding of events.
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Discussing the change in perspective and mindset when switching from short-term to medium-term thinking in market analysis:
1. First of all, the tolerance for this kind of "door painting" market has become extremely high.
Previously, when doing short-term trading and encountering this kind of market, my inner thought was: "Hell-level difficulty, damn the main force."
But now I feel that at this position, in this range, it should move like this, it's very normal, and it would be wrong if it didn't;
2. The more patient you are, the more patient you become. I found that after deliberately cultivating my patience and gradually adapting to this rhythm, patience increases on its own without deliberate cultivation, which is a very good feedback.
Regarding the market:
Today, I saw the post by @TJ_Research01, and I strongly agree. Topping is a process, while bottoming is an event.
The top is often a range, accompanied by high-level horizontal consolidation until momentum exhausts and the main force completes distribution, then it turns downward;
The bottom is often a single candlestick, accompanied by a sharp violent spike, which is the final release of fear, the extreme of emotions, and after the extreme, calmness will follow.
To add a bit more, whether it's a major top or bottom, there will be enough time and margin for error, so there's no rush. Patience is very important. Don't aim to sell at the highest or buy at the lowest, just aim to buy or sell in the right range.
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