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#WarshAtJacksonHole Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28. Markets are looking for guidance on whether the Fed could raise rates again as inflation remains elevated and Treasury yields rise. The July policy decision was unusually divided, while current estimates place the probability of a September increase at roughly 40%, although that figure has moved considerably with incoming data. A neutral speech may produce only a limited reaction because investors already expect Warsh to remain data-dependent. The larger move could come if he clearly supports further tightening or signals greater concern about financial conditions. Hawkish language would likely support the dollar and bond yields while pressuring technology stocks, gold and crypto. A more balanced message could ease those concerns. Investors should also watch July PCE inflation because the data may matter more than any isolated sentence from the speech.