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The key oil signal is not the initial spike above $90 Brent, but whether disruption persists after military risk moved closer to transport routes around Hormuz. Pressure on Iranian trade through planned U.S. bank sanctions could also tighten settlement channels even if physical flows continue. My read: steady tanker traffic would favor a fading short-term risk premium, while repeated attacks or financing constraints would make the repricing more durable. The next confirmation should come from flows, not headlines. Not advice, just analysis. #USIranTensionsHitOil