1/ Don’t sweat the headline mNAV prints—most of the value stack in these vehicles is pure equity, not fragile leverage. Premiums can—and often do—persist so long as managers keep growing mNAV through genuine alt-capital-structure arbitrage & thoughtful engineering.
2/ In other words: if a shop can keep compounding BTC (or any crypto) via differentiated yield paths—staking asymmetries, liquidity‐provision rebates, distressed on-chain paper—they can outrun the optical premium for a long time.
3/ First-level thinking says: “LOL, everything trades above NAV—bubble!”
Second-level thinking, per Howard Marks, asks: “What unique cash-flow engines let certain NAVs expand faster than mNAV can mean-revert?” Premia survive when growth > gravity.
4/ Remember: the market’s aggregate IQ beats any hot take. It constantly re-prices not just balance sheets but business models—and it can smell a durable edge in alternative structuring well before the spreadsheets catch up.
5/ So yes, some tickers are silly. But the blanket “overvalued” meme misses nuance: equity-heavy crypto trusts with relentless NAV accretion aren’t living on borrowed time; they’re weaponizing it.
6/ TL;DR—Judge crypto vehicles by the repeatability of their capital‐compound engines, not by surface-level mNAV optics. Second-order thinkers collect the premium; first-order tourists tweet about it.
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