The Truth About Where We Are in the Cycle I've been thinking a lot about where we actually are in the cycle. When you line it up, the data starts speaking for itself: - The average length from bear-market low to current peak. - The average length from halving to current peak. - Even the time between previous cycle peaks. - They’re all starting to overlap and that matters. The U.S. government shutdown isn’t helping liquidity either. Retail interest is fading and honestly, how many new buyers are stepping in right now? We’re seeing a transfer of wealth from old Bitcoin whales to institutions, funds and governments. Over time, they’ll control supply, not retail and not older OGs. And let’s be real: you’ve already had BTC do a 6x, ETH do a 5x, SOL a 15x, Hyperliquid, Sui, Raydium; they all went vertical over the past few years. Memecoins hit billions. On-chain volume exploded late 2024 into early 2025, but it’s been decreasing ever since. That’s not a “bull market starting” that’s a cycle maturing and coming to an end. Historically, extreme fear always follows just after a cycle top, not before it and that's currently being observed. Total market cap has broken multi year bullish support structure and that’s not FUD, that’s yet another example of exhaustion. Macro’s the only bright spot: liquidity could improve, rates should fall and that’s where your next window opens. But retail is tired, cost of living is high and nobody’s getting stimmy checks this time. Crypto has matured. Majors like BTC and ETH will likely be less volatile this bear. Alts are different, the VC overhang, unlocks and multicycle bags have crushed them. Most are putting in macro lower highs consistently (AVAX, LINK, ADA, DOT etc). This cycle has been rotational, it's the same money, same traders, chasing the same narratives across new chains. No real new liquidity at all in 2025. You can literally track the decline since the Trump memecoin peak. People got wrecked. The “get richquick” novelty is gone, vut you’ve still seen real utility shine: Hyperliquid, Solana, REKT, Pengu, ZEC, all proving product market fit in their own ways, yet even they’re cyclical. Now zoom out technically: - Monthly death cross looks imminent. - Monthly stochastic has sat above the 80th percentile since December 2023. - Quarterly stochastic just hit that level for the first time ever and is posturing like a top is forming And remember we already printed a new ATH before the halving (so broken rules of the past this cycle). So naturally maybe this is a super cycle, with better macro conditions setting up for 2026. From my 9 years trading this space, I’ll say this: we won’t know if the top is truly in until months later. But patience wins. There’ll be plenty of opportunities ahead especially with the wave of upcoming airdrops: Abstract, Birb, OpenSea, MetaMask, Monad, Solstice, Myriad Markets, IOPn, MegaETH… the list goes on. If there’s one lesson I’ve learned, it’s this: taking profits when it feels wrong, when you feel Euphoric, when you brag about it and screenshot it.... that is how you survive and win long-term. Everyone’s euphoric at all-time highs, but that’s exactly when experience whispers: lock some in. Cycles rhyme, they don’t repeat, but there are a lot of signs of exhaustion, however, a range of bullish catalysts to look forward to. Does Bitcoin put in a new ATH this cycle or is this the first sign of a bear market forming?