One of my predictions for this cycle: « BTC is never going to 10X in a single year ever again” People always say this “This was the last time before regulations hit” Every cycle There is “no reason for BTC to go back up again 10x” In 2019 after BTC crashed from 20k to 3k, people thought it was over In 2023, after BTC crashed from 69k to 15k, people thought it was over But let me tell you something Anon There is ALWAYS a reason for BTC to shoot up another 10X 2023 was NOT “the last time” And 2027 won’t be the last time either Why? The answer is simple Humans are masters at building leverage We always find a “new, more innovative way” to introduce leverage in the system This is why the boom and bust cycles must persist Do we get diminishing returns over time? Sure Do we still get violent 10x moves in BTC? Of course we do Do not over complicate things In 2020/21, we invented CEFI, with supposedly “over collateralized” loans (spoiler: they weren’t) People used these loans backed by their crypto as a collateral to buy more crypto It ended up very bad Leverage does this. Every time. Leverage creates insane paper gains, the magical ingredient that feeds the beautiful « financial freedom and retire early » dream we all seek so desperately That’s why humans are so addicted to leverage And that is why they always forget But paper gains inflated by debt (leverage) can only last so long It works, until it doesn’t In 2020/21 we had the CEFI dream, the yields that the banks were keeping for themselves (how dare they!) and that was finally unlocked for the average Joe and Jane through borrowing and lending, fueling our « financial freedom » dreams once again Today we have Microstrategy And more specifically, we have a $MSTT copycat (or 10) being launched in every country The principle in a nutshell? I sell you equity for cash and I buy Bitcoin with the cash, and then I earn some yield on that Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin The price of my BTC goes up, the price of your equity goes up Free money!! Sounds familiar huh? There is no free lunch But there is Leverage Leverage is a hell of a drug Soon enough, we will have some Microstrategy copycats in every country not only to buy BTC, but to buy ETH, SOL, SUI … or even Fartcoin? The principle is the same I sell you equity for cash and I then buy ETH, SOL, SUI, Fartcoin with the proceeds and I find a way to earn yield on those coins because I want to be competitive and raise MORE cash to buy MORE crypto Because it makes my crypto go up and it makes your equity go up at the same time Sounds magical right? Soon enough, BTC price is up 10x (or even 20x?) from the 15K bottom And the rest of the market is up 100X-1000X Wait, I though it was all over in 2023 and that BTC would never go up another 10x in a cycle?! I thought regulations would come in and change this? I thought that institutions being here changed the game forever? Maybe? Or maybe not Next thing you know, everything blows up Crypto markets ALWAYS blow up We go from being the genius weirdo visionaries to « being in finance and tech » when asked what we do for a living We all get poor again Greed turns into fear, and then into depression during a time based capitulation that lasts for 2 years Bad luck, this was the last time, we will never have this chance again. And like a moron, I fucked it all up again Sounds familiar huh?