红鸾i
红鸾i
收银台后面看K线，便利店里面悟人生。
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#October rate hike expectations fall, tonight's PCE is key
PCE surprised to the downside, Bitcoin finally caught a breather
With tonight's data release, we can finally relax a bit. The US core PCE in August rose 3.0% year-on-year, below the expected 3.3% and also below the previous value. Once the data came out, market expectations for an October rate hike dropped directly from 70% to 50%. Bitcoin instantly pulled back to 85260, the watchlist turned green, and $ZEC, $ETH, and $SOL all rose. Brent crude oil also held steady at 97.7.
Honestly, a few days ago watching Bitcoin bottoming around 82500 and seeing my posts get little traffic was quite frustrating. But tonight's rebound tells me one thing: the market always quietly turns around during extreme distress. The cooling of PCE means inflation pressure is easing, and the Fed's room for further rate hikes is shrinking, which is the most direct positive for risk assets.
However, we can't celebrate too early. Long-term US Treasury yields are still high, the October 2nd nonfarm payroll data hasn't been released yet, and although the rate hike threat has temporarily eased, it hasn't been completely put down. Whether this wave is a reversal or just a rebound depends on the upcoming data.
It's okay if no one reads my posts; I still have to keep writing. Trading and content creation are the same: those who endure stand out, those who don't get out. Tonight's market action has somewhat rewarded my persistence over this period. I'll keep watching. Good night, everyone.
+1.06%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 21:03
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
Before the data night, Bitcoin dips first as a sign of respect
Bitcoin is currently at 83292, with a 24-hour low hitting 82556. The line on the chart is frustrating—previously above 84000, now it’s grinding right along the lower boundary.
The news is also quite wearing. At 20:30 tonight, the US August PCE data will be released, which is the Fed’s most important inflation indicator. News says the October rate hike expectations have dropped from nearly 70% to about 50%, but CME FedWatch data is conflicting. Barr is still hawkish, warning of inflation risks, while Williams says there’s no rush, causing the market to hesitate.
Looking at PCE expectations again, if the data doesn’t come down, the October rate hike sword will still hang overhead. Long-term US Treasury yields remain high, so risk assets like Bitcoin are definitely being pressured. Simply put, the current market is a vacuum before the data, with bulls and bears both hesitant to move, resulting in low volume and choppy trading.
This kind of time really tests people. Writing posts gets little traffic, the market is frustrating, and many probably don’t even bother watching the charts. But I still insist on writing down my views. No matter how the market moves, you have to first clarify your logic and endure to stand out. Once the data is out tonight, it will likely be time to choose a direction. Everyone, please control your positions carefully. I’ll keep watching too. 🔥
-1.20%
Snapshot at Sep 30, 2026, 13:23
#特朗普称仍在考虑禁止美国柴油出口
Trump draws a line, and my little pop this time is all based on guessing?
I checked the news today, and Trump is stirring things up again, saying the White House is still considering banning U.S. diesel exports. I heard it might be a temporary restriction before the midterm elections, causing diesel prices in the UK to hit historic highs, with inventories only enough for 42 days. Once this news came out, oil prices immediately reacted, and we here also saw a little pop.
Honestly, my "little pop" this time doesn’t come from any grand macro analysis; basically, it’s a bet on Trump’s "drawing the line" move. You see the guy in the screenshot saying "being out of position is the sharpest weapon right now," but I think geopolitical black swans never give a heads-up. Trump’s one tweet can make oil prices soar overnight, so shorting risk assets (like Bitcoin and altcoins) at this moment is actually the riskiest move.
So I didn’t chase shorting crypto but instead took a small pop on crude oil following the news. The logic is simple: if the export ban really happens, global refined oil supply will definitely tighten, inflation expectations will rise again, which suppresses risk assets but supports crude oil itself. Whether this continues depends on how the exemptions are defined.
Actually, trading and writing posts are similar; sometimes it’s just a game of clear cards. Low traffic, no one reads it, but I still have to write down my trading logic. No matter if this trade ends in profit or loss, reviewing it clearly is a gain. Keep going, wait for the wind. 🔥
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变
Damn, that old man Trump changed his mind again!
That big bullish candle in oil prices is terrifying.
Just as Iran proposed a 7-day plan, saying that if the blockade is lifted and sanctions relaxed, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, causing oil prices to drop in response. But then Trump immediately rejected it and even hinted at resuming military action after the midterm elections.
WTI crude oil shot straight up to 94, Brent nearly broke 99, rising over 3% intraday. This roller coaster ride makes anyone dizzy.
As a newbie who's only been in the circle for half a year, watching this kind of market that purely swings on geopolitical news, I really have no patience. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations go up, the Fed cutting rates becomes even less likely, and both the stock market and crypto market have to bear the pressure.
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变
#BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in net inflows for 6 consecutive days
The market is stuck at 84,000, institutions are buying, miners are selling, and as a small retail investor, I'm a bit confused
News says the Fed's rate hike expectations have heated up again, with over a 70% chance of a hike in October, and the 30-year US Treasury yield has broken 5.5%. Logically, this macro environment should definitely suppress risk assets. But interestingly, funds are quietly flowing in; BTC spot ETF has had net inflows exceeding $2.8 billion for 6 straight days, with nearly $1 billion bought on September 21 alone, setting a new high for the year. However, volume has dropped these past two days, with only $191 million last night.
On one side, institutions are buying with real money, while on the other, I saw in the newsfeed that miner Bitdeer not only maintains zero holdings but also sold 288 BTC this week. Big players are stocking up, miners are offloading, this market really looks like a battle of titans.
As a small retail investor who entered less than half a year ago, I find this market really difficult to navigate. Buying at highs risks getting hit hard by the Fed's rate hike hammer, but not buying risks missing out as institutions take off. Looking back at my modest few dozen USDT in Modern Automotive Martingale, it's barely moving around 260, earning just a few cents in meager profits.
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温