Everyone is reducing holdings and waiting to see; what does the 30-year US Treasury yield soaring past 5.3% mean? The 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a new high. The US is now carrying nearly 40 trillion in massive debt and can only issue bonds frantically due to lack of funds. The awkward part is that the Federal Reserve is not stepping in, overseas major buyers are reducing holdings, and even the popular AI infrastructure is competing for funds. The market has more sellers than buyers, inflation can't be suppressed, so the only way is to raise interest rates to find someone to pay. Large deficits lead to frantic bond issuance, bond issuance pushes up interest rates, high interest rates bring huge interest payments, and ultimately the deficit grows even larger. As long as high interest rates persist, corporate financing and home buying costs will skyrocket, and the high valuation sectors of the US stock market will definitely be hit first. Although gold and Bitcoin are suppressed in the short term, in the long term, once people doubt the US dollar's credit, they will become sought-after safe havens. The way out is either to cut spending or to grit teeth and ease monetary policy with rate cuts; the healthiest way is to rely on AI to improve productivity, but that is too slow. So next, don't just watch the Federal Reserve's face; who else is willing to take on this massive US debt? #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

Memory price pressure combined with Xiaomi's surge means the financial report for Xiaomi's smartphone business is expected to look bleak. Goldman Sachs and several other institutions directly predict Xiaomi's Q2 net profit will plunge by 40%. As a Xiaomi fan myself, I can't hold back from criticizing Xiaomi's operations this year. Last year, the Mi series paid full tribute to Apple in both name and design, and even Xiaomi fan bloggers recommended buying the Redmi K90 PM instead of the Mi 17. The Mi series even dropped out of the top 30 sales rankings, dragging Xiaomi's domestic smartphone business share down to 12%. Moreover, the shortage of consumer-grade memory is expected to last another two to three years, and the supply chain price hikes have tightly squeezed Xiaomi's profits, with a comprehensive price increase recently. One of the few positives is that this tough situation already played out once in Q1. High EQ: The market had already priced in the bad news for Q2 financials long ago. Low EQ: Already at rock bottom, any move is upward. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？

80% of S&P companies have exceeded earnings expectations, so why hasn't a bull market arrived? Now nearly 90% of U.S. stocks have reported earnings, with the vast majority of profits and revenues far surpassing expectations. Logically, the market should surge, but major institutions remain very cautious. This is because everyone anticipated good earnings reports and rushed to buy shares in advance, so the positive news has already been priced in. The U.S. stock market still faces two old, recurring issues. First, U.S. Treasury yields remain too high, severely limiting the stock market's upside. Second, the AI theme has been hyped for so long that even if companies aren’t growing profits fast enough, investors will turn hostile and sell off. The phase of boosting stock prices by storytelling is over; from now on, real profitability in cold hard cash is what counts. When buying stocks, don’t just focus on hot concepts; look for companies that can truly turn AI technology into profits and cash flow. As long as earnings don’t lag, the U.S. stock market can still rise. But if profits can’t keep up, the current high valuations will become a huge minefield. #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？

Don't just focus on US inflation; the yen interest rate hike is the real main event in the macro market ahead. Many friends have been watching the Fed's moves recently, but the yen is actually the real hidden bomb. According to Japan's latest inflation data, a rate hike in September is basically a done deal. What everyone is truly worried about is not just this one hike, but whether the Bank of Japan will start a continuous rate hike cycle afterward. While US inflation is cooling down, prices in Japan are heating up. If the yen interest rate rises too quickly causing the US-Japan interest rate spread to narrow rapidly, Japanese funds overseas will rush back crazily, draining liquidity from the dollar market in reverse. This is also why recently the US and Japan have unusually joined forces to intervene in the exchange rate. The US cannot let Japan collapse, nor dare to let Japanese interest rates run too wild. Next, focus closely on the two key levels: 160 and 162. If the exchange rate surges above 162 again, Japan will most likely be forced into continuous rate hikes; if it can hold steady below 160, the pace can still catch a breather. #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约

Everyone's spending enthusiasm and prices are cooling down, which greatly reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in September. But don't be too optimistic just yet. As long as energy prices rebound, the nightmare of stagflation will immediately return. Tonight's US stock market will soon reveal whether it is celebrating good news or worrying about a recession. The latest retail data is a bit dismal, indicating that ordinary Americans are indeed spending less, and the economy is slowing down. On the surface, the dollar has fallen and gold has risen, and the market seems to have caught its breath, but behind this lies a major economic stall. Right now, the crisis is barely covered up by cheap energy prices. If there is trouble in the Middle East causing oil prices to soar, the most troublesome stagflation scenario will directly unfold, and the stock, bond, and currency markets could all be smashed at any time. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to 28.8%, but as long as it doesn't fall below the 25% safety line, the alert hanging overhead is not considered lifted. To completely dispel the idea of a rate hike, we still need to see if subsequent data and oil prices cooperate. Tonight's market movement is a weather vane, showing whether major funds plan to splurge to stop rate hikes or to exit early to guard against an economic recession. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大

Completely cover the variety names and time periods, even the top traders can't tell if this is a 5-minute or daily chart. Which time frame you look at is not the key to making money; as long as you understand quantitative and capital game theory, choosing the time frame that suits you best is the most important. 1. Do K-lines look exactly the same across all time frames? Most trading in modern financial markets is executed by quantitative programs. From 5-second high-frequency battles to monthly position building, many algorithms make decisions based on mathematical probabilities and risk-reward ratios. All levels of trends repeat four stages: breakout, narrow channel, wide channel, and consolidation range. No matter which chart you look at, K-lines are essentially footprints left by capital games, and the underlying logic and pattern rules are completely consistent. 2. Different assets require matching different time frames Choosing a time frame first depends on the characteristics of the asset you trade. Assets like U.S. stocks are deeply influenced by quarterly earnings reports, macroeconomic cycles, and interest rate hikes or cuts. Trend formation takes time, so daily and weekly charts are often more suitable. In forex and crypto markets, much capital engages in intense intraday battles, making short-term entry and exit signals more obvious. The more liquid the asset, whether 5 seconds or 1 hour, there are many institutional algorithms competing against each other. Understanding price action helps you find opportunities. 3. The most common time frame mismatch trap for beginners Many beginners like to split their computer screens into seven or eight parts, watching 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, and even daily charts simultaneously. This not only doesn't bring more profit but creates huge signal interference. More fatal than multi-screen setups is arbitrarily switching time frames to comfort oneself. Many find an entry reason on the 5-minute chart, open a position, and hesitate to exit when floating profits appear. When the trend breaks and it's time to stop loss, they switch to the 1-hour chart and insist it's just a minor pullback on a larger scale, not even a bearish candle. This behavior of using a larger time frame to excuse short-term losses often marks the beginning of liquidation. 4. Develop multi-time frame associative skills and stick to your main time frame A truly qualified trader doesn't need dozens of windows open but has the basic skill of multi-time frame association. When you look at the 5-minute chart, your mind can automatically reconstruct the structure of the larger time frame. Complex repeated oscillations on the 5-minute chart might be a simple trend-following pullback candle on the 2-hour chart; several large bearish candles breaking out on the daily chart might be a wide descending channel on the 1-hour chart. Trading does not require frequent time frame switching. Beginners only need to choose the main time frame that suits their schedule and personality, thoroughly understand and master the price action within that time frame, and that is enough to stand firm in the market. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到

Does the market still believe memory will always be in short supply? Whether memory is actually scarce or not is not important. The current valuation cannot be falsified; as long as someone believes, there will be buyers. South Korean chip stocks rebounded over 22% in ten days, which means the logic of severe memory shortage has once again been recognized by capital. After the Q2 earnings reports, some of the high valuations were digested through sell-offs, and the performance of major AI giants proved that the AI narrative has not collapsed at all. As long as someone believes in this story, there will be buyers willing to pay, and the stock price will naturally soar. In fact, whether memory is truly forever scarce is not important. The story is not at a point where it can't continue yet. The real test of this story will come when valuations return to historical highs. Until then, as long as there is demand, the chip stock rebound is far from over. #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点

July PPI overall was lower than expected, U.S. Treasury yields collectively plummeted, and the pre-market surge in U.S. stocks indicates that short-term pressure is easing. This time, the production-side data is quite strong, with the core monthly rate stable at 0.2%. Combined with last night's inflation data, it means inflation pressure on both businesses and consumers is simultaneously cooling down. From the market perspective, short-, medium-, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields all plunged, with the 1-year yield dropping 0.75%, and U.S. stocks soaring throughout the pre-market. The breathing room for capital has expanded, and the suffocating feeling caused by high interest rates has eased considerably. But don't rush to pop the champagne yet. Although the swap rate shows the probability of a September rate hike has fallen to 32.1%, as long as it hasn't dropped into the 30% safety zone, the alarm cannot be considered fully lifted. In the second half of tonight's U.S. stock session, we still need to be wary of capital suddenly retreating again like it did early yesterday morning and resuming concerns about inflation. Next, it depends on whether tomorrow's retail data continues to weaken. Only when the rate hike probability is thoroughly crushed below 30%, or even 25%, will big money dare to confidently enter the market for a wild celebration. #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大

Buying $SPCX means buying the stars and the sea; if you're aiming for AI computing power, it's better to buy an existing computing power company. Elon Musk's so-called space data center sounds cool, but essentially it's still at the PPT stage. Data centers on land are already short of water and electricity, so who has the time to gaze at the stars? Spending a fortune to build data centers on the ground is like giving up your unique skills and using your weaknesses to compete against others' strengths. If you really want to hitch a ride on AI computing power, what matters is the hard strength that can immediately generate rental income. Companies like Oracle or Coreweave already have data centers running nonstop day and night. They directly rent computing power to major AI companies, with real cash flow coming in every day, and their business loops run very smoothly. Buying rocket company stocks to bet on server rentals is never cost-effective. If you believe in AI computing power, look for professional players with customers, revenue, and data centers. Dreams are dreams, life is life; distinguishing faith from business is the right way. #马斯克称AI将占SpaceX价值99%

The inflation data released tonight is not dovish enough; the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose in response. Relying on the CPI to suppress the probability of a rate hike is still wishful thinking. Those expecting inflation data to directly reverse rate hike expectations will most likely be disappointed. After the data release, the US Dollar Index quickly climbed back above the 100 mark, and short-, medium-, and long-term US Treasury yields all rose again. Even the late gains in the US stock market began to quickly narrow. This series of market reactions only leads to one conclusion: tonight's data is simply not dovish enough. The most direct change is in the interest rate market. After the data came out, the CME swap rate showed that the probability of a September rate hike did not decrease; instead, it rebounded from 36% directly to 40%. From a capital safety perspective, as long as this rate hike probability does not fall completely below 30%, the market remains unsafe, and the pressure on high-risk assets has not been relieved. However, don't lose heart yet. Although tonight's data failed to bring enough reassurance to the market, this week's data story is not over. Tomorrow's PPI and the day after's retail data can still continue to influence market trends. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温