阿豪 Vegahao

阿豪 Vegahao

前 Crypto 增长操盘手,现在靠交易生活。 每天筛选 Crypto 机会、风险与 AI 工具。 公开记录判断,也公开复盘错误 X:@vegahao

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阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
Performance exceeds expectations, lock-up period approaching: What is the outlook for SpaceX going forward?
SpaceX's first financial report after going public provided the market with a typical example of "numbers win, but stock price doesn't." For the second quarter ending June 30, the company achieved revenue of $7.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; Net loss was $541 million, with a loss per share of $0.09, less than half of analysts' previous estimates. By business, connectivity revenue was $4.29 billion, up 66% year-on-year; AI business revenue was $2.56 billion, up 247% year-on-year; Space business revenue was $962 million, up 29% year-on-year. Looking at growth alone, this achievement is not bad. Axios Financial Report Data · AP earnings report However, after the earnings were released, the stock price fell more than 6% in after-hours trading. Why? 1. The market is not worried about growth, but about the cost of growth. SpaceX's current structure can be simply understood as: connectivity businesses like Starlink provide relatively stable cash flow, space business handles long-term R&D, and AI business is undergoing significant infrastructure expansion. In the second quarter, the company invested about $15.8 billion in AI infrastructure, expanding its computing power scale to 1.4GW. High investment itself is not necessarily a bad thing; the problem lies in the market needing to answer three questions: When will this computing power generate stable revenue? Can revenue growth outpace depreciation and operating cost growth? Can the capital recovery efficiency mentioned by the company be verified for several consecutive quarters? This is also the core divergence after the earnings report. Bullish view
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阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
Start taking profits in batches! PCE data is favorable! After one night, the position has already rebounded to the expected level! - $SNDK has risen 35% from the bottom - SK Hynix has risen 33% from the bottom - MU Micron has risen about 26% from the bottom Quick and short, the target increase was achieved rapidly within one day. What’s next? - Personal view: most rebounds won’t have very sustained momentum - The faster the rebound, the more it indicates a bounce; after retail investors chase the rally, there will be a subsequent pullback - This morning’s Korean relay might be another high point Keep the rhythm and keep going! #美联储三票主张加息,今晚PCE成新看点
SNDKUSDTPerp9xBuyClosed
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Snapshot at Jul 31, 2026, 08:14
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
The recent trend is becoming increasingly dangerous, $BTC has gradually formed a consolidation triangle under a long-term sideways movement. Additionally, $ETH is also showing a more dangerous trend, with today's daily candle closing rather mediocre. Overall, if $BTC breaks below the trendline, a new round of decline should begin. Waiting for the market to arrive, I have been making very few trades recently.
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
Gold $XAU $XAUT continues to rise 📈 with a bottom surge of over 10% Currently, the gold market trend is not over yet. Personally, I believe it remains relatively healthy before the September FOMC meeting expectations. The key level I am focusing on is still the previously mentioned 4490. Additionally, there is the area around 4780. I have not fully taken profit yet and continue to hold. #黄金升破4300美元,资金在押降息还是避险?
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
Multiple opportunities: Marscoin Overall, there are still several positive factors yet to be released CZ buys, Binance contracts still have spot contracts $MARSCOIN The follow-up is still very much worth looking forward to The structure is also very beautiful, with the increasingly approaching upper Naokisan I can't wait to see $MARSCOIN. VS $CASHCAT
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
$BTC Market Analysis Currently at the eve of a rebound With gold's excellent performance, BTC's overall strength has also become stronger recently A small head and shoulders bottom pattern has formed on the daily chart, likely leading to a rebound wave with a target around 70000-73000 However, there are heavy resistances above, with strong pressure levels and moving average bands Even if there is a surge, my personal judgment is that it is more likely to be a rebound #黄金4200美元拉锯,BTC为何没跟涨?
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
Gold $XAUT $XAU has risen 6%-7% since it was mentioned on August 5th You can see a full review of this gold long opportunity from my previous content on my planet I have not taken profit yet, but I am close to my first take-profit level Personally, I will reduce positions in the 4400 - 4500 range - Previous high - Moving average band of daily-level decline #黄金4200美元拉锯,BTC为何没跟涨?
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
Crude Oil $CL Entering the News Market: The biggest fear is not misreading, but chasing the first stock. The most noteworthy thing about crude oil today is not whether a single news item is bullish or bearish, but rather that two completely opposite narratives are trading simultaneously. On one hand, both the U.S. and Iran are signaling that they are close to reaching an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are said to have completed the draft agreement and are just waiting for final approval; If expectations for shipping recovery continue to rise, the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premiums may be further reduced. On the other hand, there are still clear differences in the negotiations. The US opposes allowing Iran to control the shipping routes and charge fees, while Iran insists on retaining some control; Meanwhile, the Houthis claim to attack Saudi oil tankers show that the real transport risks have not disappeared just because the words "agreement is close." Brent is currently around $80 per barrel. This position feels more like an emotional watershed to me than an entry point where you can directly chase orders. I observe two types of reactions: If negative news continues but oil prices remain unmoved and even quickly reclaim around $80, it indicates that the agreement may have priced in early, and the odds for bears to continue chasing prices are starting to decline. If new attacks and tough statements continue to emerge but oil prices remain unstrengthened, it indicates that the market believes supply will gradually recover and that geopolitical premiums are still being sold off. In the news market, headlines usually only determine the first candlestick. Whether the subsequent price can sustain will reflect the true capital choices. So today, I won't immediately chase short positions just because the agreement is near, nor will I go long just because the 'tanker is attacked.' A more reasonable approach is to wait for news to come out and see if the price breaks through, whether trading volume follows, and whether the breakout can be sustained. If the news is big but the price doesn't react, this "non-response" itself is often more valuable than the news. Crude oil is now trading not to determine the answer, but for the dynamic changes between the probability of successful negotiations, the speed of shipping recovery, and the risk of further escalation of conflict. My plan is simple: don't guess the outcome, just trade the market's true reaction to the outcome. #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
The overall trend of gold $XAU is good Currently, gold has steadily broken through the upper boundary of the convergence It is running steadily Personally, I will start taking profits around 4490 This should be a quick rebound rally #从降息到加息,联储分歧全公开
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
Recently paying attention to the gold $XAU $XAUT market, I want to share a few obvious characteristics with everyone - The sideways consolidation after a big drop has lasted more than 40 days - Volatility is gradually narrowing, with a recent breakout of clearly identifiable boundaries - US Dollar Index DXY: continuous weakening is bullish for gold - US 10-year real interest rate: decline is bullish for gold - USD/JPY: yen continues to appreciate, usually favorable for dollar gold But this market level is quite large, it should take at least a month to break out to a good position. Will continue to follow up #标普500首次站上7700点,创历史新高
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
Recently paying attention to the gold $XAU $XAUT market, I want to share a few obvious characteristics with everyone - The sideways consolidation after a big drop has lasted more than 40 days - Volatility is gradually narrowing, with a recent breakout of clearly identifiable boundaries - US Dollar Index DXY: continuous weakening is bullish for gold - US 10-year real interest rate: decline is bullish for gold - USD/JPY: yen continues to appreciate, usually favorable for dollar gold But this market level is quite large, it should take at least a month to break out to a good position. Will continue to follow up #标普500首次站上7700点,创历史新高
阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
At the same position, spot can be bought, but short-term trading can still wait. It sounds contradictory, but it’s actually just different holding periods. In the past 24 hours, $BTC dropped from about $64,947 to around $62,954, hitting a low of $62,466, a decline of about 3.1%. Some have started increasing their spot exposure to $BTC and $ETH, while others clearly state that in such a volatile environment, they prefer to wait for a higher price and structural confirmation before trading. I prefer to completely separate the two logics: Core spot looks at the next 12–24 months, without leverage, planning to invest funds in batches. Short-term fluctuations can be tolerated; the real exit basis should be the failure of macro logic, not a single hourly candlestick spike. Short-term trading focuses on a few hours to a few days, emphasizing structural confirmation, single-trade risk, and clear stop-loss. Without signals, just keep waiting; it’s better to confirm and buy a bit more expensively than to mistake “price dropped a lot” as a reason to enter. The most dangerous approach is not getting the direction wrong, but using the wrong timeframe: after a short-term stop-loss is hit, comforting yourself with “long-term optimism”; during normal pullbacks in long-term spot, watching five-minute candlesticks and forcing yourself out. So my plan today is simple: long-term positions are invested in batches as planned, no leverage; trading positions won’t be entered without confirmation, and failed short-term trades will never be temporarily renamed as long-term investments. First determine how long this money is prepared to stay in the market, then decide where to buy and how to exit. #Tether季度盈利15亿,黄金增至146吨