阿豪 Vegahao
阿豪 Vegahao
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Performance exceeds expectations, lock-up period approaching: What is the outlook for SpaceX going forward?
SpaceX's first earnings report after going public provided the market with a typical example of "numbers winning, but stock price not winning." As of June 30, in the second quarter, the company achieved revenue of $7.81 billion, a year-over-year increase of 92%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion; net loss was $541 million, or $0.09 loss per share, with the loss margin less than half of analysts' previous estimates. By business segment, connectivity business revenue was $4.29 billion, up 66% year-over-year; AI business revenue was $2.56 billion, up 247%; space business revenue was $962 million, up 29%. Looking at growth alone, these results are not bad. Axios earnings data · AP earnings report However, after the earnings release, the stock price fell more than 6% in after-hours trading. Why? 1. The market's concern is not growth itself, but the cost required to achieve that growth. SpaceX's current structure can be simply understood as: connectivity businesses like Starlink provide relatively stable cash flow, space business undertakes long-term R&D, and AI business is undergoing heavy infrastructure expansion. In the second quarter, the company invested about $15.8 billion in AI infrastructure, expanding computing power to 1.4GW. High investment itself is not necessarily bad; the issue is that the market needs answers to three questions: When will this computing power generate stable revenue? Can revenue growth outpace depreciation and operating cost increases? Can the company's stated capital recovery efficiency be validated over several consecutive quarters? This is also the core divergence after the earnings report. Bulls see
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Start taking profits in batches! PCE data is favorable! After one night, the position has already rebounded to the expected level!
- $SNDK has risen 35% from the bottom
- SK Hynix has risen 33% from the bottom
- MU Micron has risen about 26% from the bottom
Quick and short, the target increase was achieved rapidly within one day. What’s next?
- Personal view: most rebounds won’t have very sustained momentum
- The faster the rebound, the more it indicates a bounce; after retail investors chase the rally, there will be a subsequent pullback
- This morning’s Korean relay might be another high point
Keep the rhythm and keep going!
#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
+285.30%
Snapshot at Jul 31, 2026, 08:14
The recent trend is becoming increasingly dangerous,
$BTC
has gradually formed a consolidation triangle under a long-term sideways movement.
Additionally,
$ETH
is also showing a more dangerous trend, with today's daily candle closing rather mediocre.
Overall, if
$BTC
breaks below the trendline, a new round of decline should begin.
Waiting for the market to arrive, I have been making very few trades recently.
Gold $XAU $XAUT continues to rise 📈 with a bottom surge of over 10%
Currently, the gold market trend is not over yet. Personally, I believe it remains relatively healthy before the September FOMC meeting expectations.
The key level I am focusing on is still the previously mentioned 4490.
Additionally, there is the area around 4780.
I have not fully taken profit yet and continue to hold.
#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
Multiple opportunities: Marscoin still has several positive catalysts yet to be released
CZ is buying, Binance has both futures and spot
$MARSCOIN is still very much worth looking forward to
The structure is also very beautiful, continuously approaching an ascending triangle
Can't wait to see $MARSCOIN vs $CASHCAT.
$BTC Market Analysis Currently at the eve of a rebound
With gold's excellent performance, BTC's overall strength has also become stronger recently
A small head and shoulders bottom pattern has formed on the daily chart, likely leading to a rebound wave with a target around 70000-73000
However, there are heavy resistances above, with strong pressure levels and moving average bands
Even if there is a surge, my personal judgment is that it is more likely to be a rebound
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？
Gold $XAUT $XAU has risen 6%-7% since it was mentioned on August 5th
You can see a full review of this gold long opportunity from my previous content on my planet
I have not taken profit yet, but I am close to my first take-profit level
Personally, I will reduce positions in the 4400 - 4500 range
- Previous high
- Moving average band of daily-level decline
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？
Crude Oil $CL Entering the News Market: The biggest fear is not misreading, but chasing the first stock.
The most noteworthy thing about crude oil today is not whether a single news item is bullish or bearish, but rather that two completely opposite narratives are trading simultaneously.
On one hand, both the U.S. and Iran are signaling that they are close to reaching an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are said to have completed the draft agreement and are just waiting for final approval; If expectations for shipping recovery continue to rise, the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premiums may be further reduced.
On the other hand, there are still clear differences in the negotiations. The US opposes allowing Iran to control the shipping routes and charge fees, while Iran insists on retaining some control; Meanwhile, the Houthis claim to attack Saudi oil tankers show that the real transport risks have not disappeared just because the words "agreement is close."
Brent is currently around $80 per barrel. This position feels more like an emotional watershed to me than an entry point where you can directly chase orders.
I observe two types of reactions:
If negative news continues but oil prices remain unmoved and even quickly reclaim around $80, it indicates that the agreement may have priced in early, and the odds for bears to continue chasing prices are starting to decline.
If new attacks and tough statements continue to emerge but oil prices remain unstrengthened, it indicates that the market believes supply will gradually recover and that geopolitical premiums are still being sold off.
In the news market, headlines usually only determine the first candlestick. Whether the subsequent price can sustain will reflect the true capital choices.
So today, I won't immediately chase short positions just because the agreement is near, nor will I go long just because the 'tanker is attacked.' A more reasonable approach is to wait for news to come out and see if the price breaks through, whether trading volume follows, and whether the breakout can be sustained.
If the news is big but the price doesn't react, this "non-response" itself is often more valuable than the news.
Crude oil is now trading not to determine the answer, but for the dynamic changes between the probability of successful negotiations, the speed of shipping recovery, and the risk of further escalation of conflict.
My plan is simple: don't guess the outcome, just trade the market's true reaction to the outcome.
#伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
The overall performance of gold $XAU is good
Currently, gold has steadily broken through the upper boundary of convergence
It is running steadily
Individuals will start taking profits around 4490
This should be a rapid rebound
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
阿豪 Vegahao
Recently, I've been following the gold $XAU $XAUT market, and I have a few obvious features to share with everyone
- After the sharp drop, the consolidation has lasted for over 40 days
- Volatility is gradually narrowing, with recent breakouts of clearly identifiable boundaries
- US Dollar Index DXY: Continued weakness is positive for gold
- US 10-year real yield: Declines are positive for gold
- USD/JPY: The yen continues to appreciate, which usually favors dollar gold
But this market is quite high-level, and it should take at least a month to break out to a good level. Keep an eye on #标普500首次站上7700点 and set a new all-time high
Recently, I've been following the gold $XAU $XAUT market, and I have a few obvious features to share with everyone
- After the sharp drop, the consolidation has lasted for over 40 days
- Volatility is gradually narrowing, with recent breakouts of clearly identifiable boundaries
- US Dollar Index DXY: Continued weakness is positive for gold
- US 10-year real yield: Declines are positive for gold
- USD/JPY: The yen continues to appreciate, which usually favors dollar gold
But this market is quite high-level, and it should take at least a month to break out to a good level. Keep an eye on #标普500首次站上7700点 and set a new all-time high
At the same position, spot can be bought, but short-term trading can still wait.
It sounds contradictory, but it’s actually just different holding periods.
In the past 24 hours, $BTC dropped from about $64,947 to around $62,954, hitting a low of $62,466, a decline of about 3.1%. Some have started increasing their spot exposure to $BTC and $ETH, while others clearly state that in such a volatile environment, they prefer to wait for a higher price and structural confirmation before trading.
I prefer to completely separate the two logics:
Core spot looks at the next 12–24 months, without leverage, planning to invest funds in batches. Short-term fluctuations can be tolerated; the real exit basis should be the failure of macro logic, not a single hourly candlestick spike.
Short-term trading focuses on a few hours to a few days, emphasizing structural confirmation, single-trade risk, and clear stop-loss. Without signals, just keep waiting; it’s better to confirm and buy a bit more expensively than to mistake “price dropped a lot” as a reason to enter.
The most dangerous approach is not getting the direction wrong, but using the wrong timeframe: after a short-term stop-loss is hit, comforting yourself with “long-term optimism”; during normal pullbacks in long-term spot, watching five-minute candlesticks and forcing yourself out.
So my plan today is simple: long-term positions are invested in batches as planned, no leverage; trading positions won’t be entered without confirmation, and failed short-term trades will never be temporarily renamed as long-term investments.
First determine how long this money is prepared to stay in the market, then decide where to buy and how to exit.
#Tether季度盈利15亿，黄金增至146吨
