$ETH briefly outperformed $BTC a couple of days ago, climbing back above 2500, but today it slipped back to around 2420, with its relative strength line starting to flatten. The rotation between leading and catching-up moves in the short squeeze happens quickly; ETH's strength often serves as a thermometer for market risk appetite—its weakening usually signals a diminishing momentum in this pulse. Don't mistake a single day's outperformance as a trend change; watching whether it can hold its relative price against BTC on the pullback is a more meaningful signal. Data won't play along with you.

Turning the lens to the macro picture: Canada announced it would impose corresponding counter-tariffs on U.S. goods starting September 8, while the U.S. has already imposed 50% on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods. The primary impact of escalating trade frictions is not the rise and fall of stocks and currencies, but the tariffs driving up costs and reigniting the narrative chain of "inflation—rate hikes." For risk assets, what really matters is where long-term U.S. Treasury yields go, not the tariffs themselves. $BTC These assets swing back and forth between depreciation trades and rate hike narratives; don't judge based solely on a single day's price movements.

$SOL 24-hour range ranged from 87.5 to 102.8 and then fell back to 94, making it the most elastic among the three mainstream markets. In short squeeze markets, the leaders are often not the strongest, but the one with the weakest position structure and the easiest to be harvested from both sides. High elasticity means high liquidation density; both upper and lower shadows can clear out leveraged players. Don't just focus on gains in these products; look at their open interest and liquidation distribution—elasticity is a double-edged sword; strong rallies lead to quick rebounds. Watch the position speaks for itself.

$BTC has been oscillating between 76.4K and 78.8K over the past 24 hours, finally settling back around the 77K mark — this combination of an extended upper shadow with volume not keeping up carries more information than just looking at the price alone. The fuel for a short squeeze pulse is originally the forced liquidations of short positions; once this passive buying is exhausted, the price naturally loses upward momentum. So the current high-level consolidation looks less like a buildup and more like momentum quietly fading. Data won't play along with you, so watch the volume before discussing direction. Do you think this move is a breather or a peak?

$BTC once touched nearly 79,600 intraday, then quietly slipped back to the 77K level—don’t rush to call it bullish or bearish yet; the derivatives side has more information. The funding rates for the three major perpetual contracts are still firmly in the positive range, meaning longs are continuously paying shorts; and in the past 24 hours, liquidations across the network have overwhelmingly hit shorts. In plain language: a large part of the fuel pushing the price up is actually "help" from forced liquidations of short positions, not new buying actively coming in. In this structure, the peak of a short squeeze is often the peak of short-term momentum. The data won’t play games with you. Do you think this wave is the start of a trend or just a pulse top?

$BTC surged past 78K overnight, even touching nearly 79,600 intraday. Many thought this was the start of a trend. But look at this data first: in the past 24 hours, liquidations across the entire network have overwhelmingly hit the shorts, accounting for over 80%. To put it plainly — a large part of the fuel pushing the price up is actually forced liquidations of short positions "helping out," not new buying building positions. This kind of liquidation-driven rally comes fast and goes fast. Data won’t play along with your narrative; focus on structure, not sentiment. How much longer do you think this fuel will last?

$ETH climbed back above 2,500 overnight, with a 24-hour increase even surpassing $BTC—ETH's relative strength in this short squee is worth noting. The reason is simple: shorts on the contract side are accumulating more densely on ETH, and once the price starts, there is more fuel to replenish the rally. But relative strength is "who bounces higher," not "who goes far." The ETH/BTC ratio has indeed risen these past two days, but it is more the result of leverage misalignment squeezing out the market rather than funds actually doing long rotation. Looking at this data, don't just look at who is the top gainer; you have to look at who pushed it up. Data won't play along with you. Do you think ETH is really strong this time, or was it fed up by the bears?

The funding rates for the three major perpetual contracts are now uniformly +0.01%, almost maxed out in the positive range. Here's what that means: the longs are currently paying the shorts. The short squeeze has pushed the price to this level, so those chasing longs not only bear the risk of a high price but also have to pay funding fees every period. After a +24% weekly gain for $BTC, the price surged strongly, but the funding rate structure is quietly telling you that leveraged longs are already very crowded. The rate won't play games with you; it only records who is paying. Do you trust this candlestick more, or do you trust the funding rate?

Shift your focus from tonight's spike back to the calendar: Jackson Hole is from next Wednesday to Friday (8/27–29), with Wash's debut on 8/28. This kind of pulse-like surge is essentially the agitation before a major event, with both bulls and bears betting on the central bank's words. From the volatility structure, the options side hasn't joined the spot market's celebration, indicating the market hasn't priced this rally as a trend yet. Before the event unfolds, don't stake your position on a direction that hasn't been validated. The data won't play along with you.

Spot gold hit a new high of $4630 overnight, rising more than 2% intraday. Dalio came out again saying "reduce bonds, allocate 10–15% to gold" to hedge against the US debt crisis. Looking at it together with $BTC: gold, silver, and Bitcoin are resonating as part of the same "devaluation trade"—long-term interest rates remain high, fiscal expansion continues, and capital is seeking non-sovereign assets as a safe haven. Logically, BTC benefits, but don't forget its beta is much higher than gold's, so it rises sharply but also falls quickly. Watch your position size.