#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ A new week, with the main focus on the interest rate meeting this week. Currently, major institutions are all certain that there will be a rate hike this time, and the market is moving in anticipation. The current conditions show an increasing probability of a rate hike, but there are also many conditions against it. Now the pressure is on Powell. Previously, I expected Powell to withstand the pressure, but this time, with oil prices and two prior data points leaning towards a rate hike expectation, I somewhat doubt that Powell might actually raise rates. However, there are several scenarios for a rate hike, and the announcement of the rate decision and the subsequent press conference remarks will have a significant impact. If a 25 basis point hike is made in September but the possibility of further hikes is downplayed, then the pre-emptive downward movement will limit the room for a pullback. If after a 25 basis point hike the expectation of continued tightening is reinforced, then the market will face sustained pressure. Conversely, if the pressure is withstood this time and rates remain unchanged, the market will rebound. But if the press conference adopts a hawkish tone emphasizing possible delays in further hikes, that will also have an impact. However, I think this probability is very low; if there is no hike in September, there definitely won't be one in October (despite the sharp rise in oil prices in September). Therefore, combining all the above with market conditions, the probability ratio of a market bottom rebound versus sustained decline is 6:4. I am more inclined to look for a low point to bet on a rise. I lean towards Powell maintaining a hawkish tone verbally but keeping actions unchanged.

My preferred CPI data combination is: Overall year-on-year 3.4%, month-on-month 0.4%; Core year-on-year 2.4%, month-on-month 0.2%. This indicates an acceleration in overall price increases, but the core remains relatively moderate. The conclusion is that the overall data meets or falls short of expectations (a positive market rebound). Additionally, if tonight's CPI data is strong, the expectation for a rate hike in September will further increase, and Wash may not withstand the pressure. Moreover, oil prices started rising sharply in September, with August being relatively moderate; the expected value is already much higher than the previous one, making it unlikely to exceed expectations. $BTC $XAU

#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction Yesterday, the US bond market and the soaring oil prices caused the market to worry again The probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 72% The impact of the rate hike is persistent, so it still needs attention Everyone is now focused on tonight's CPI data; if the data is strong again tonight I'm afraid the Fed really can't withstand the pressure and will have to raise rates Technically, as long as it doesn't break below 762, I can still hold a bullish view on the high positions If it breaks below, I will look to buy again around the 73-72K level Gold still considers support starting with 42 Maintain the expectation that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, as long as profits remain stable The market will return to strength! $BTC $XAU

#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Under the pressure of strong data and high oil prices Both BTC and gold markets will be suppressed Watching the critical watershed at 76.2k If it breaks below, consider waiting for a deeper pullback to buy Still near the strong support at 72K