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☯️ 10.11｜BTC has returned near 83,000, ETH has also pulled back to 2,500, but weekend volume is limited. Currently, it looks more like sideways consolidation and recovery, so it’s too early to define a reversal. Next week CPI is approaching, US Treasury yields remain around 5.24%, and crude oil hasn’t truly cooled down. Today, let’s first see if key levels can hold. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Wuxu, day of Wuwu, lunar calendar September 2nd. The Earth element (Wu) sits on Fire (Wu), fire generates earth, so earth energy is relatively strong. Using this imagery to look at the market means there is recovery momentum after a sharp drop, but resistance above remains, making the market prone to repeated oscillations. This metaphysical reference is just for traditional cultural interest; trading should still focus on price, volume, and capital. BTC is about $82,900, up about 0.5% in 24 hours, ranging between $82,483 and $83,094, down about 2.6% in the past 7 days. Support: 82,500–82,800 Strong support: 81,000–81,500 Resistance: 83,300–83,500 Strong resistance: 84,000–84,500 BTC has not accelerated downward toward 80,000, indicating temporary support around 82,500–83,000, but 83,000 has not yet been truly broken through and confirmed. If it holds above 83,500 and can retest support near 82,500, we can continue to look toward 84,000–84,500; if 83,000 cannot be reclaimed and then falls below 82,500, watch for a test of 81,500 or even 80,000 again. It’s not suitable to chase gains in the middle of the range now. Only after holding 83,500 can we talk about 84,000 and reclaiming 84,500, then the rebound structure can be considered further improved. ETH is about $2,506, up about 0.8% in 24 hours, ranging between $2,487 and $2,517, down about 7.1% in the past 7 days, overall still significantly weaker than BTC. Support: 2,480–2,500 Strong support: 2,400–2,450 Resistance: 2,530–2,550 Strong resistance: 2,580–2,600 ETH today should first see if it can hold 2,500. If it holds 2,500 and breaks through 2,550, we can continue to watch 2,600; if it falls below 2,480 again, watch for 2,450 or even 2,400. The capital flow is not ideal for now. From October 1 to 9, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs had a combined net outflow of about $986 million, with BTC about $407 million and ETH about $579 million; ETH ETFs have had net outflows for 8 consecutive trading days. So BTC stabilizing does not mean a full Risk-on. When ETH can reclaim 2,600, expectations for altcoin catch-up rallies can rise again. US stock markets are closed over the weekend. On the last trading day, the S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54, up 0.59%; Nasdaq closed at 27,366.17, up 0.64%; Dow closed at 51,654.95, up 0.83%. But the 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5.243%, and the pressure from high interest rates has not truly eased. Gold intraday high reached $4,194.36, December gold settled at $4,216.30. Short-term focus on support at 4,150–4,170 and resistance at 4,200–4,220; only holding above 4,220 offers a chance to continue toward 4,250–4,280. For crude oil, Brent closed at $104.72, WTI at $91.85. Oil prices remain high, meaning the pressure chain of “energy inflation—US Treasury yields—risk asset valuations” still exists. Key focus next week: October 14, 20:30: US September CPI October 15, 20:30: US September PPI If inflation is lower than expected and the 10-year Treasury yield falls below 5.20%, BTC, gold, and tech stocks’ recovery will have more confidence; if data is hotter and yields break above 5.35% again, risk assets may come under pressure again. Also, on October 12, US stock markets will trade normally while bond markets are closed, possibly causing temporary liquidity mismatches across markets. Today’s key levels to watch: BTC: 82,500 / 83,500 ETH: 2,480 / 2,550 Gold: 4,150 / 4,220 S&P: 7,780 / 7,850 Nasdaq: 27,200 / 27,600 10-year US Treasury: 5.20% / 5.35% What BTC needs most now is not a sudden pullback to 85,000, but to first stabilize 82,500–83,000, then gradually reclaim 83,500 and 84,500. Sideways consolidation can ease the downtrend, but sideways itself does not mean a bottom. Do you think BTC will slowly build a bottom between 82,000 and 83,000, or will it test 80,000 once more before the CPI release? For personal market observation only, not investment advice.

Over the past couple of days, I've taken a look around OKX Money, and my biggest impression is this: OKX wants to be more than just an exchange; it aims to be a true Money App that can manage, transfer, and spend money. Previously, stablecoins for me were mostly trading funds. Depositing, swapping coins, wealth management, transfers, and spending were often scattered across different entry points. To spend U, I had to first sell coins, withdraw, then transfer to a bank card. What OKX Money wants to solve is to reconnect these steps. From actual experience, the entire interface feels much lighter than the exchange mode. It doesn't bombard you with K-lines, contracts, and various technical terms right away; instead, it focuses directly on a few things ordinary people use most: storage, appreciation, transfers, and spending. Currently, you can hold USDG, USDC, and USDT, and it also supports deposits through more than 50 local currencies. Eligible USDG balances can earn up to 10% annualized yield without extra staking or locking; funds in the account can generate income and can be used directly when transferring or spending. What I personally pay more attention to is the OKX U Card. Simply put, it turns the stablecoin balance in your account into a payment card you can use daily. When using the virtual or physical card for spending, you don’t need to manually convert U into local fiat first; the system automatically deducts from your USDG, USDC, or USDT balance at payment, then converts it via Visa or Mastercard networks into the local currency accepted by the merchant. In other words, you can use it like a regular bank card at restaurants, hotels, flight booking platforms, overseas websites, and offline merchants that support the respective card networks. Some regions also support binding to Apple Pay and Google Pay, allowing payment with just a tap on your phone. This experience is very practical for people who often hold stablecoins. Previously, going from “having U in the account” to “spending in real life” involved selling coins, withdrawing, currency exchange, and bank cards; now these steps are compressed into a single card swipe, with merchants receiving normal fiat currency and no need to understand what USDT or USDG is. Regarding fees, OKX emphasizes no annual fees, no transaction fees, and no extra foreign exchange markups. More precisely, the final conversion still follows the card network’s real-time exchange rate, and some regions may have market spreads; specific rules depend on the account’s location. Eligible spending can also earn USDG cashback, with cashback rates and monthly caps varying by region, account level, and promotional periods; some markets offer up to 10%. Qualified USDG in the account continues to generate yield before spending, effectively “appreciating while sitting there, deducted directly when spent.” I think the real value of the OKX U Card is not just issuing another card, but pushing stablecoins from digital numbers in trading accounts one step closer to real-life money. Of course, currently, cards, yields, and cashback are not uniformly available in all regions. Whether Visa or Mastercard, the ability to apply for a physical card, and specific fees depend on what is shown on the account page. But from a product direction perspective, the path is very clear: Local currency deposit → Hold stablecoins → Earn yield → Global transfers → Direct spending with U Card. Users don’t need to understand chains, Gas, or settlement paths first; they just operate like using an ordinary financial app. Complex technology is hidden behind, leaving a simpler fund experience. Before, when I opened OKX, my first reaction was to check the market and look for opportunities; now, after seeing OKX Money and the U Card, I start to feel that OKX wants to cover the entire process of money being deposited, generating yield, and finally being spent. There are many platforms for trading, but not many can truly bring stablecoins into daily life. From Exchange to The New Money App, this time OKX hasn’t just changed a slogan; the product closed loop is really starting to take shape. @okxchinese @star_okx @misaENFP @zakk_okx

☯️ 10.10｜BTC has reclaimed above 82,000, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rebounded, and gold also rose back near 4190. Yesterday, the market was still worried whether 80,000 could hold; today, the bulls finally have a bit of breathing room. But the problem is clear: although U.S. stocks rose, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high at 5.24%, and Brent crude oil is still above $104. The rebound can be acknowledged, but don’t rush to call it a reversal yet. Today is the year of Bingwu, the month of Wuxu, and the day of Dingsi, the first day of the ninth lunar month. Ding fire sits on Si fire, so the fire element has roots, but the dry earth of the Xu month tends to consume fire. Applied to the market, this means there is momentum for recovery, but whether it can sustain depends on volume and support. BTC was around $82,450 this morning, up about 0.9% in 24 hours, ranging between $81,572 and $83,398, still down about 2.3% over the past 7 days. Yesterday’s low was near $80,400, then it reclaimed $82,000, indicating there is temporary support at $80,000, but the short-term structure has not fully recovered. BTC: Support at 81,500–82,000 | Strong support at 80,000–80,500 | Resistance at 83,000–83,500 | Strong resistance at 84,000–84,500. Now 83,000 has turned from previous support into the first resistance. Only by firmly reclaiming 83,500 and holding above 82,000 on a pullback can we expect to continue toward 84,000–84,500; if 83,000 cannot be surpassed and it falls back below 81,500, then 80,000 will likely face another test. So today, a 1% rebound won’t immediately turn the market bullish. Holding 82,000 is the first step; reclaiming 83,500 is the second. Holding ground is more important than just touching the level. ETH was around $2,476 this morning, with a 24-hour range of about $2,469–$2,512, clearly underperforming BTC over the past week. ETH: Support at 2,450–2,470 | Strong support at 2,400–2,420 | Resistance at 2,500–2,530 | Strong resistance at 2,580–2,600. BTC has rebounded from near $80,000, but ETH hasn’t truly held above 2,500, indicating capital remains cautious about high-volatility assets. Only by reclaiming 2,530 and holding above 2,500 on a pullback can we look toward 2,580–2,600; if 2,450 breaks, watch for support near 2,400. BTC’s rebound does not mean a full risk-on environment. ETH’s turnaround will signal greater potential for altcoin rallies. A few small coins surged over the weekend, but that doesn’t mean the altcoin season is back. On Friday, U.S. stocks all closed higher: Dow up 0.83% to 51,654.95, S&P 500 up 0.59% to 7,811.54, Nasdaq up 0.64% to 27,366.17, Russell 2000 up about 0.5%. Next week focus: S&P: Support 7,750–7,780 | Resistance 7,820–7,850 Nasdaq: Support 27,100–27,200 | Resistance 27,500–27,600 This rebound mainly reflects a temporary easing of geopolitical trading risks, not that interest rate pressure has disappeared. The 10-year Treasury yield slightly retreated on Friday but still closed around 5.243%. Keep watching 5.20% and 5.35% next week. A drop below 5.20% would further ease valuation pressure on BTC, gold, and tech stocks; a break above 5.35% would risk synchronized adjustments in risk assets again. Gold rebounded to a weekly high on Friday, with spot prices reaching $4,194.36 intraday, and December futures up about 1.4%, settling at $4,216.30. Gold: Support 4,150–4,170 | Strong support 4,100–4,120 | Resistance 4,200–4,220 | Strong resistance 4,250–4,280. Gold has seen capital support, but 4,200–4,220 remains the first resistance. Only by firmly holding above 4,220 and with Treasury yields falling below 5.2% can it challenge 4,250–4,280; if it falls below 4,150 again, this rally is still considered a rebound from oversold conditions. There is also a macro contradiction: October consumer confidence preliminary dropped to 46.3, but one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, and long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.5%. Economic confidence is declining, but inflation expectations have not cooled accordingly. This is one reason why Treasury yields remain high despite weak employment data. Oil has not truly cooled either. Brent settled at $104.72 on Friday, WTI at $91.85. Geopolitical risks have eased somewhat, but Gulf of Mexico hurricanes have suspended significant offshore production, continuing to support oil prices. The current risk chain remains unchanged: High oil prices → Inflation expectations hard to fall → Treasury yields remain high → Valuation pressure on Crypto and tech stocks. The real big test next week is inflation data: U.S. September CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on October 14, and PPI at 20:30 on October 15. If CPI is below expectations, oil prices fall, and the 10-year yield drops below 5.2%, BTC, gold, and tech stocks have a chance for a more complete recovery; if data remains hot, be prepared for the market to price in prolonged high interest rates. Key levels to watch today: BTC: 82,000 / 83,500 ETH: 2,450 / 2,530 Gold: 4,150 / 4,220 S&P: 7,780 / 7,850 Nasdaq: 27,200 / 27,600 10-year Treasury: 5.20% / 5.35% My judgment is simple: BTC’s rebound from near 80,400 to above 82,000 is a positive signal, but it’s still too early to confirm 80,000 as a phase bottom. Over the weekend, watch if there is support near 82,000; only after firmly reclaiming 83,500 can the rebound be rated higher; if 83,500 cannot be reclaimed and it falls below 81,500, treat it as continued weak consolidation. A big drop doesn’t mean a bottom, and a quick rebound doesn’t mean a reversal. Weekend liquidity is thin, traditional markets are closed, so beware of false breakouts and spikes caused by sudden news. Do you think BTC can establish 80,000 as a phase bottom, or will it test again before next week’s CPI? For personal market observation only, not investment advice.

☯️ 10.8｜BTC fell back overnight to 83,000, ETH dropped nearly 5%, and gold also broke below 4100 intraday. Yesterday we were still discussing whether 85,000 could hold as support; today the market has given the answer: 85,000 did not hold, US Treasury yields surged again, and Risk-on sentiment clearly cooled down. Don’t rush to bottom-fish today; the key is to see if BTC can hold 83,000. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Dingyou, day of Yimao. At 14:29 Beijing time, it enters Cold Dew, then transitions into the Wuxu month. Yimu sits on Maomu, having its own root, but external pressure remains strong. Applied to the market: after a sharp drop, a rebound may occur, but a rebound does not equal a reversal. BTC is around $83,209, down about 2.7% in 24 hours, range approximately $82,846–$85,543. BTC focus: Support: 82,500–83,000 Strong support: 81,000–82,000 Resistance: 84,000–84,500 Strong resistance: 85,000–85,500 The previously contested 85,000 has been lost, and the short-term structure has weakened again. If 82,500–83,000 can hold today and reclaim 84,000–84,500, a technical rebound toward 85,000 can be observed; if 82,500 breaks and the rebound cannot hold, watch for tests of 82,000 or even 80,000 again. Yesterday we were still discussing whether 85,000 could become support; today the price has returned near 83,000. This is why I always emphasize: holding steady is more important than just touching the level. ETH is around $2,571, down about 4.7% in 24 hours, range approximately $2,544–$2,698, showing clear weakness compared to BTC. ETH focus: Support: 2,540–2,560 Strong support: 2,500–2,520 Resistance: 2,620–2,650 Strong resistance: 2,680–2,700 ETH lost 2,650 yesterday and has returned near 2,550 today. Holding 2,540 and reclaiming 2,620 can allow observation of a rebound to 2,650; if 2,500 also fails, the downside space needs reassessment. BTC fell about 2.7%, ETH nearly 5%, indicating funds are prioritizing withdrawal from high-volatility assets. Until ETH recovers 2,650, even if BTC rebounds, don’t rush to call a full Risk-on, and don’t rush to chase small-cap altcoin rallies. Last night US stocks ended their winning streak: S&P 500 down 0.22% to 7,801.77, Nasdaq down 0.22% to 27,538.69, Dow down 0.66% to 51,179.87; Russell 2000 down about 1.3%, with small caps and rate-sensitive sectors under more pressure. US stock focus today: S&P: 7,750–7,780 support / 7,820–7,850 resistance Nasdaq: 27,300–27,500 support / 27,700–27,800 resistance The AI logic hasn’t suddenly disappeared, but high interest rates are again pressuring valuations. The index declines seem small, but internal risk appetite is weaker than it appears. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit an intraday high of 5.364%, a new high since 2002. Then a $3.9 billion 10-year Treasury auction saw strong demand, combined with oil price retreat, pushing yields down to about 5.284%. Today we continue watching 5.20% and 5.36%. If it falls below 5.20% again, tech stocks, gold, and Crypto will have a more comfortable repair environment; if it breaks above 5.36% again, even approaching 5.4%, risk assets must guard against chain adjustments. Gold also faced selling pressure last night, hitting an intraday low near $4,066, then recovering to around $4,110; December gold futures closed at $4,140.70. Gold focus: Support: 4,080–4,100 Strong support: 4,050–4,060 Resistance: 4,150–4,180 Strong resistance: 4,200 The previously repeatedly supported 4,100 was lost intraday. Even if it rebounds today, it must first reclaim 4,150–4,180 to have a chance to look at 4,200; if 4,050 breaks effectively, watch for the 4,000 round number. Geopolitical risks remain, but gold is suppressed by the dollar and high yields, indicating that the core of short-term trading is still real interest rates, not just a pure safe-haven narrative. Two other important changes last night: First, the Fed’s September meeting minutes showed most officials expect possibly one more rate hike this year, but no clear intention to start a continuous rate hike cycle. Market pricing for an October hike has dropped to about 17%, with strong expectations for a short pause, though risks of tightening in December remain. Second, crude oil surged then retreated. Brent briefly broke above $102 intraday, closing at $100.20; WTI closed at $88.28. The International Energy Agency accelerated inventory releases, temporarily easing supply pressure, but Middle East tensions and transport risks remain. The current macro chain is still clear: High oil prices → inflation worries persist → long-term US Treasury yields pressured → BTC, gold, and tech stock valuations pressured. If Brent falls back below $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield retreats toward 5.2%, the recent sharp drop is more likely to see a decent repair. So far, only part of that has happened; it’s too early to call a Risk-on restart. Today’s key levels: BTC: 83,000 / 84,500 ETH: 2,540 / 2,650 Gold: 4,080 / 4,180 S&P: 7,780 / 7,850 Nasdaq: 27,500 / 27,800 Yimu sits on Maomu; today it has roots but the external wind is strong. What BTC needs most is not a sudden pullback to 85,000, but first to hold 82,500–83,000, then gradually reclaim 84,000–84,500. If it can’t hold, keep defending; if it holds, then talk about opportunities. 85,000 didn’t hold yesterday, so don’t comfort yourself with yesterday’s bullish script today. Trading isn’t about always being right, but about timely adjustment after market invalidation. Do you think BTC will stabilize again near 83,000, or will it return near 80,000 to find support again? For personal market observation only, not investment advice.

☯️ 10.7｜U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, but BTC has fallen back from above 86,000 to around 84,000, with ETH showing a more significant decline. Last night, Risk-on sentiment seemed strong, but Crypto didn’t fully keep up. Today, don’t rush to guess a reversal; focus on whether BTC can hold 84,000 and ETH 2,600. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Dingyou, day of Jiayin. Jia wood sits on Yin wood, meaning the wood element has strong roots and continues to grow, but the faster the branches grow, the more important it is to see if the roots are stable. Corresponding to the market: the macro environment has improved, but coin prices have started to diverge. BTC is about $83,934, down about 1.8% in 24 hours, ranging between $83,702 and $86,634. BTC focus today: Support: 83,700–84,000 Strong support: 82,800–83,200 Resistance: 84,800–85,200 Strong resistance: 86,000–86,600 Last night, BTC once surged above 86,600 but failed to hold 85,000, indicating selling pressure above remains heavy. If 83,700–84,000 can hold today and BTC recovers back above 85,000–85,200, this pullback can still be treated as a high-level consolidation; if 83,700 is effectively broken and the rebound never recovers, then watch for another test near 83,000. Previously, it was said that 85,000 must change from a “paper-thin support” to a real support, but now the price has fallen back again. The next focus is not whether it can touch 85,000, but whether it can firmly stand above it again. ETH is about $2,615, down about 3.2% in 24 hours, ranging between $2,602 and $2,723, showing a clearly weaker trend than BTC. ETH focus today: Support: 2,600–2,620 Strong support: 2,550–2,580 Resistance: 2,680–2,700 Strong resistance: 2,720–2,750 ETH failed to hold 2,700 last night and has now dropped back near 2,600. Only after firmly reclaiming 2,700 can it qualify to target 2,750; if 2,600 breaks, watch for 2,550–2,580 support. The latest daily net outflow of the U.S. spot ETH ETF is about $55.37 million, marking three consecutive trading days of outflows. Short-term capital is indeed weaker than BTC, so while BTC rebounds, ETH fails to reclaim 2,700. I’m not rushing to call a full Risk-on. As for 2,800, wait until 2,750 is truly taken first. Last night, U.S. stocks continued to strengthen: the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,818.93, the Nasdaq rose 0.45% to 27,599.79, both hitting record closing highs; the Dow rose 0.49% to 51,521.28. S&P support is seen at 7,750–7,780, resistance near 7,850; Nasdaq support at 27,300–27,500, resistance near 27,800. However, the Russell 2000 fell 0.6%, indicating funds remain concentrated in AI, large tech, and energy sectors, not all assets rising together. Index new highs are real, and market divergence is real too. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen from previous highs to about 5.269%. The direction is becoming friendlier to risk assets, but the absolute level remains high. Today, watch 5.20% and 5.30% levels. If yields fall further below 5.20%, BTC, gold, and tech stocks have room to continue valuation release; if yields climb back above 5.30%, high-level risk assets still need to guard against profit-taking. Gold rose about 0.7% last night to $4,168.33; December gold futures closed at $4,187.10. Gold focus: Support: 4,120–4,140 Strong support: 4,080–4,100 Resistance: 4,180–4,200 Strong resistance: 4,250 The current gold outlook is simple: hold above 4,200, then look to 4,250; if it falls back below 4,100, continue to defend. If "10-year Treasury yield falls below 5.2% + gold breaks above 4,200" occurs, the quality of this recovery will significantly improve. Crude oil has become a risk point again today. Asian morning session Brent rose to about $101.51, WTI about $90.25. Besides repeated Middle East tensions, Gulf of Mexico storms are also threatening U.S. crude and refinery supplies. Gulf crude exports have clearly recovered, but shipping, refinery, and geopolitical risks remain. Supply recovery pressures oil prices down, Middle East conflicts and storms push prices up; whichever side dominates will directly affect inflation expectations and U.S. Treasury yields. At 2:00 AM Beijing time tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will release the September FOMC meeting minutes. After weak nonfarm payrolls, the market’s pricing for another rate hike in October has dropped to about 20%. Tonight, the main focus is on how much internal Fed disagreement there is over inflation and continued tightening. If the minutes are less hawkish than expected and Treasury yields continue to fall, Crypto still has room to recover; if the minutes reinforce rate hike expectations, BTC’s 84,000 and ETH’s 2,600 will face tests again. Key levels to watch today: BTC: 84,000 / 85,200 ETH: 2,600 / 2,700 Gold: 4,120 / 4,200 S&P: 7,780 / 7,850 Nasdaq: 27,500 / 27,800 Jia wood sits on Yin wood, with upward growth power, but today it’s more important to first watch the roots. BTC holding 84,000 and reclaiming 85,000 will restore structural comfort; if ETH can’t even hold 2,600, don’t rush to look for altcoin catch-ups. What’s most feared now is not a normal pullback, but U.S. stocks hitting new highs and yields falling while Crypto still can’t hold. Price weakness despite improved macro conditions is a signal that must be respected. Do you think BTC will reclaim 85,000 first, or ETH will break 2,600 first? For personal market observation only, not investment advice. Metaphysical content is for traditional culture interest reference only. #crypto #BTC #ETH bitcoin:native

☯️ 10.6｜After the weak non-farm payrolls, Risk-on continues to advance. Last night, all major U.S. stock indexes rose, the Nasdaq hit another all-time high, and BTC returned near 86,000. However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 5.3%, sentiment is rising, but the interest rate hand still presses down on the market. Today we continue to watch for follow-through, not chasing the first move. Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Dingyou, day of Guichou. Gui Water sits on Chou Earth; water wants to flow but is blocked by earth below. Applied to the market: capital is willing to push forward, but resistance above remains significant. The closer to resistance levels, the more important it is to see if it can truly hold. This metaphysical reference is for traditional cultural interest only; trading should focus on price, volume, and capital. First, let's look at Crypto. BTC is about $85,966, down about 0.9% in 24 hours, ranging roughly between $85,050 and $86,734. BTC focus today: Support: 85,000–85,300 Strong support: 84,000–84,500 Resistance: 86,500–86,800 Strong resistance: 87,500–88,000 The question for BTC is no longer whether it can hold 85,000, but whether it can truly break through and hold 86,500–86,800. If it can hold the 85,000–85,300 support on a pullback and then volume increases to stabilize above 86,800, we can look toward 87,500–88,000; if it rallies but then falls back below 85,000 and fails to recover on a rebound, watch for a retest of 84,000–84,500. It has already been proven that reaching 86,000 or even 87,000 is not difficult; the challenge is to keep the price there. Holding steady is more important than just touching the level. ETH is about $2,716, slightly down in 24 hours, ranging roughly between $2,683 and $2,736. ETH focus today: Support: 2,680–2,700 Strong support: 2,620–2,650 Resistance: 2,735–2,750 Strong resistance: 2,800–2,850 ETH is currently holding 2,700, but 2,800 remains the real switch for altcoin sentiment. After holding 2,750, watch for 2,800; only a break above 2,800 with a confirmed retest will make the capital flow to altcoins more logical. If BTC continues upward but ETH cannot break through 2,750–2,800, this rally remains more BTC and a few strong names, not a full Risk-on. ETH also has an event today: the Glamsterdam upgrade plan will activate on the Sepolia testnet around 21:54 Beijing time tonight. Note, this is only a testnet upgrade; the timing for Hoodi and mainnet is not yet determined, so it should not be interpreted as a fundamental change on mainnet. Now, looking at U.S. stocks. Last night, the S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95, the Dow Jones rose 0.18% to 51,267.90, and the Nasdaq rose about 1.05% to 27,477.31, hitting another all-time closing high. Tech stocks continue to lead, and 10 of the 11 S&P sectors rose, showing healthier market breadth than in previous days. Focus today: S&P: support at 7,700–7,730 / resistance near 7,800 Nasdaq: support at 27,200–27,300 / watch price discovery in new high area But the biggest conflict remains the bond market. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is about 5.31%, still at a high level not seen since 2002. Weak non-farm payrolls lowered short-term rate hike expectations but did not truly suppress long-term yields, indicating market concerns extend beyond the Fed to fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and term premiums. Today we continue to watch 5.20% and 5.30% levels. If yields fall below 5.20%, BTC, gold, and tech stocks have room to further release valuations; if yields stay above 5.30% and stocks remain at historic highs, beware of profit-taking in a high-rate environment. Gold is currently about $4,135–4,140, with December gold futures around $4,156.8. The positive impact from weak non-farm payrolls is still offset by a strong dollar and high yields. Gold focus: Support: 4,100–4,120 Strong support: 4,050–4,080 Resistance: 4,180–4,200 Strong resistance: 4,250 Until 4,200 is firmly held, treat this as an oversold recovery; if the 10-year Treasury yield falls below 5.2% and gold breaks above 4,200 simultaneously, the quality of this rebound will significantly improve. Regarding crude oil, Brent is about $100.28, WTI about $89.33. Increased Middle East exports and the G7 plan to release about 100 million barrels from emergency reserves temporarily ease supply pressure, but the Gulf region remains at risk of volatility. The most comfortable macro chain now is: Weak employment → lower rate hike expectations Oil price decline → easing inflation pressure Falling Treasury yields → continued recovery in Crypto, gold, and tech stocks The first two steps have appeared; what is truly missing is confirmation of a downward trend in Treasury yields. Key levels to watch today: BTC: 85,000 / 86,800 ETH: 2,680 / 2,800 Gold: 4,100 / 4,200 S&P: 7,730 / 7,800 Nasdaq: 27,300 / new highs Today's market can be summed up in one sentence: Risk-on has moved forward, but the bond market has not yet yielded. The most comfortable BTC move is not a direct spike to 88,000, but a pullback near 85,000 that holds, then truly turning 86,800 into support. ETH continues to watch 2,800; after breaking and holding above, altcoin catch-up is more promising. The biggest risks are the 10-year Treasury yield staying above 5.3%, Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher again, and BTC rallying near 87,000 then falling back. Do you think BTC will hold 86,800 first, or ETH will break 2,800 first? For personal market observation only, not investment advice.