tvbee
✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜，分析能力大于交易水平，不撸毛
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This seems like big news! Has Trump started to change his strategy?
Trump declared reconciliation with Hamas today!
Why is this big news? Because Hamas is one of the key players in Iran's proxy network.
┈➤ Iran's "Proxy Network"
Iran has long supported several forces in the Middle East, forming its proxy militias.
These include Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi movement, Iraqi Shia militias and political groups, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and others, all generally part of the anti-American camp.
Most are explicitly anti-American, while others oppose Israel and indirectly oppose the U.S.
Most of Iran's proxy groups are not orthodox ruling parties; Hezbollah in Lebanon is one of the few with legitimate political party status (participating in governance), while others resemble warlords with religious and ideological characteristics.
Setting aside the specific politics of these countries and regions, Iran's support for proxy groups has, to some extent, exacerbated divisions in the Middle East.
These proxy networks' military and religious influence in the Middle East have become important assets for Iran.
For example, the Yemeni Houthi movement holds significant military power at the southern exit of the Red Sea Strait, echoing the Strait of Hormuz in the northeast, controlling eastbound shipping in the Middle East.
Without Houthi interference, Saudi oil could be transported westward through the southern exit of the Red Sea Strait to Asia.
┈➤ The Breach in the "Axis of Resistance"
The "Axis of Resistance" refers to the alliance in the Middle East resisting U.S. hegemony and Israeli expansion. It is not completely identical but highly overlaps with Iran's "proxy network."
Hamas, as an important member of the "Axis of Resistance," reconciling with the U.S. creates a breach in this "Axis of Resistance."
Trump seems to be changing his strategy: since direct military action against Iran is too costly, he is starting with Iran's allies.
Once Iran's "proxy network" begins to loosen, Iran's power in the Middle East will gradually weaken.
Of course, if Trump is truly pursuing this plan, the strategy is extremely challenging. Groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah are not only anti-American and anti-Israel due to interests but also because of religious conflicts with the U.S. and Israel, making reconciliation very difficult.
┈➤ In Conclusion
Like #trump
First, if Israel accepts withdrawal, Gaza may enter peace. This is good news for the safety and healthy lives of the Palestinian people.
Second, this move can enhance Trump's international prestige, benefiting his midterm elections, which is good news for him personally.
Third, Hamas's core military strength is clearly declining, and Iran's proxy network is weakening. This helps influence market expectations and suppress oil price increases, which is also good news for the market.
If Trump continues this proxy weakening strategy, we wish him early success and oil prices to recover soon!
The reason for tonight's rebound in the US stock market has been found! Is it a rebound or a reversal?
#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
┈➤ Data
◆ Core PCE Data
Annual rate meets expectations (3.3%), monthly rate (0.1%) below expectations (0.2%) and below previous value (0.3%).
Q2 annualized quarterly rate (3.4%) below expectations (3.5%) and below previous value (4.4%).
◆ GDP Data
Q2 annualized quarterly GDP rate (1.5%) significantly below expectations (2.1%) and previous value (2.1%).
◆ Personal Spending Data
Monthly rate meets expectations (0.3%), below previous value (0.9%).
Q2 real quarterly rate (3.2%) exceeds expectations (2.3%) and previous value (0.5%).
┈➤ Interpretation
First, PCE data is more macro than CPI data and is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The PCE data is overall slightly weaker than expected and shows a downward trend compared to last month, which helps reduce the Fed's motivation to raise interest rates.
Second, GDP data is below expectations and Q1, indicating economic growth is slowing, which also reduces the justification for Fed rate hikes.
Third, Q2 real personal spending quarterly data, which excludes inflation factors, shows that personal consumption expenditure in Q2 remains relatively strong. However, the monthly personal spending rate shows a noticeable downward trend.
Overall, tonight's data tends to weaken the expectation of Fed rate hikes. The CME's expectation for a September rate hike has dropped to 61.4%, down from 68% last night.
Of course, this is not enough to change the expectation of a September rate hike, as the Fed focuses on data over several months rather than a single month.
Moreover, the quarterly data is preliminary and will be revised later, and with renewed tensions between the US and Iran in July causing oil prices to rise again, the CPI data for July-August may not be optimistic.
Therefore, Brother Feng still leans towards a rebound rather than a reversal.
tvbee
If there is a past life, Trump must have been the Black Swan reincarnated from that life!
Originally, I was optimistic about the US stock market and crypto during the August monetary policy window.
But Trump also took notice of this window, and the US-Iran conflict started again.
Militarily, on July 28, Iran launched a missile test attack on US troops stationed in the Middle East.
Non-militarily, in July, the US reimposed sanctions on Iran's oil sales, including economic sanctions and sanctions on Iranian shipping.
Iran launched the attack the day before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, raising expectations of US-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and increasing CPI. It is speculated that Iran deliberately timed this to give the Fed a reason to hawkishly tighten or even raise interest rates—in simple terms, to put eye drops on Trump. Of course, this is just personal speculation.
Fortunately, the market has become somewhat desensitized to the US-Iran conflict. Around July 24, OPEC crude oil peaked near 100, and WTI crude oil peaked near 73. Today, OPEC crude oil peaked near 90, and WTI crude oil peaked near 85.
Storage is rebounding, Merck $SKHY back to $132. Micron $MU back to $778, $SNDK back to $1095.
If there is a past life, Trump must have been the Black Swan reincarnated from that life!
Originally, I was optimistic about the US stock market and crypto during the August monetary policy window.
But Trump also took notice of this window, and the US-Iran conflict started again.
Militarily, on July 28, Iran launched a missile test attack on US troops stationed in the Middle East.
Non-militarily, in July, the US reimposed sanctions on Iran's oil sales, including economic sanctions and sanctions on Iranian shipping.
Iran launched the attack the day before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, raising expectations of US-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and increasing CPI. It is speculated that Iran deliberately timed this to give the Fed a reason to hawkishly tighten or even raise interest rates—in simple terms, to put eye drops on Trump. Of course, this is just personal speculation.
Fortunately, the market has become somewhat desensitized to the US-Iran conflict. Around July 24, OPEC crude oil peaked near 100, and WTI crude oil peaked near 73. Today, OPEC crude oil peaked near 90, and WTI crude oil peaked near 85.
Storage is rebounding, Merck $SKHY back to $132. Micron $MU back to $778, $SNDK back to $1095.
tvbee
No rate hike in July, stance neutral leaning hawkish
The Federal Reserve is very likely, as the market expects, not to raise rates in July.
Except for 3 firmly hawkish officials advocating a rate hike in July, the rest voted to keep rates unchanged.
Among them are 2 hawkish-leaning officials: one is Fed Chair Powell, whose recent remarks have been relatively flexible, advocating policy adjustments based on economic conditions.
The other is Fed Board member Lisa D. Cook, who was previously dovish but turned hawkish; Trump had previously attempted to fire her. Possibly under such pressure, she stated in mid-July that she prefers to observe for a while longer.
Overall, the signals from this FOMC meeting are neither dovish nor very hawkish. The details will be clearer after next month's July meeting minutes.
Among the 12 Fed officials voting, 8 hold permanent seats and all supported keeping rates unchanged in July.
Their statements were relatively cautious.
The 3 firmly hawkish officials hold 2026 voting seats and will lose voting rights next year.
Starting next month, I will also summarize officials with voting rights in 2027.
Expectations for a rate hike in September are very high. Although August is a monetary policy gap period, in the latter part or second half of the month, the market may start to price in the negative impact of a September rate hike early.
In early August, focus will be on the Senate's full vote on the crypto clarity bill.
No rate hike in July, stance neutral leaning hawkish
The Federal Reserve is very likely, as the market expects, not to raise rates in July.
Except for 3 firmly hawkish officials advocating a rate hike in July, the rest voted to keep rates unchanged.
Among them are 2 hawkish-leaning officials: one is Fed Chair Powell, whose recent remarks have been relatively flexible, advocating policy adjustments based on economic conditions.
The other is Fed Board member Lisa D. Cook, who was previously dovish but turned hawkish; Trump had previously attempted to fire her. Possibly under such pressure, she stated in mid-July that she prefers to observe for a while longer.
Overall, the signals from this FOMC meeting are neither dovish nor very hawkish. The details will be clearer after next month's July meeting minutes.
Among the 12 Fed officials voting, 8 hold permanent seats and all supported keeping rates unchanged in July.
Their statements were relatively cautious.
The 3 firmly hawkish officials hold 2026 voting seats and will lose voting rights next year.
Starting next month, I will also summarize officials with voting rights in 2027.
Expectations for a rate hike in September are very high. Although August is a monetary policy gap period, in the latter part or second half of the month, the market may start to price in the negative impact of a September rate hike early.
In early August, focus will be on the Senate's full vote on the crypto clarity bill.
tvbee
High probability: No rate hike tonight, but a rate hike signal will be released
#美联储即将公布利率决议
┈➤ High probability of no rate hike tonight
╰✦ Market expectation is a high probability of keeping rates unchanged
CME interest rate futures products show that the market's expectation for a July rate hike has a 68.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged. See Figure 1.
The recent rise in rate hike expectations is due to tense US-Iran relations and rising oil prices. Polymarket's expectation for no rate hike in July has dropped from 96% to 75% in the past two days, but it still remains around 75%. See Figure 2.
These two products, the former being interest rate futures and the latter a prediction market, are both "voted" on by TradeFi traders using real money.
Especially CME interest rate futures, since mid-2023, the Fed's dot plot showed further hikes in the second half of the year, but CME interest rate futures indicated no more hikes, and indeed there were no hikes in the second half.
╰✦ Layoff trend
Recently, companies like Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have clearly announced upcoming layoffs, for example, Visa announced 2,600 layoffs, Uber announced 10% layoffs... (Information confirmed by Grok+GPT)
If large companies are like this, what about small companies?
The current corporate layoff trend is influenced by AI replacing human labor combined with economic trends. Although rate cuts cannot solve the AI replacement issue, rate hikes still need to be carefully considered.
Therefore, the market's expectation for a rate hike in September is relatively high, including CME interest rate futures and Polymarket predictions.
┈➤ Releasing rate hike expectations
The Fed will most likely release rate hike expectations.
Brother Feng has analyzed this issue more than once: rate hikes cannot solve inflation caused by rising oil prices.
However, inflation caused by rising oil prices triggers expectations and demand for wage increases. Once wages rise, it further pushes up corporate costs, which then causes prices of goods and services to rise.
The role of rate hike expectations is to suppress wage increase expectations in this "wage-inflation" spiral, thereby curbing the "wage-inflation" spiral.
┈➤ Final notes on layoff trends: on one hand, they reduce the sufficiency for Fed rate hikes. On the other hand, with layoffs ongoing, Americans' demand and desire for wage increases will also decline, reducing the "wage-inflation" spiral trend, which in turn reduces the necessity for Fed rate hikes.
This is quite an interesting logic.
Combined with market expectations, there is a high probability of no rate hike tonight.
Since the FOMC meetings occur roughly every one and a half months, there is no meeting in August, making it a monetary policy gap month. The latter half of the month may start to price in a September rate hike. The first half of the month may not be very quiet; crypto mainly watches the Senate full vote on that clear bill.
As for September, if inflation issues are severe in September or Q4, the Fed may hike rates once to better exert this suppressive effect.
But a single rate hike is not a continuous rate hike cycle, so market panic and liquidity expectations may be relatively limited.
Of course, the key concern is if the September dot plot releases a more hawkish signal.
High probability: No rate hike tonight, but a rate hike signal will be released
#美联储即将公布利率决议
┈➤ High probability of no rate hike tonight
╰✦ Market expectation is a high probability of keeping rates unchanged
CME interest rate futures products show that the market's expectation for a July rate hike has a 68.5% probability of rates remaining unchanged. See Figure 1.
The recent rise in rate hike expectations is due to tense US-Iran relations and rising oil prices. Polymarket's expectation for no rate hike in July has dropped from 96% to 75% in the past two days, but it still remains around 75%. See Figure 2.
These two products, the former being interest rate futures and the latter a prediction market, are both "voted" on by TradeFi traders using real money.
Especially CME interest rate futures, since mid-2023, the Fed's dot plot showed further hikes in the second half of the year, but CME interest rate futures indicated no more hikes, and indeed there were no hikes in the second half.
╰✦ Layoff trend
Recently, companies like Visa, Uber, ServiceNow, Disney, and Patreon have clearly announced upcoming layoffs, for example, Visa announced 2,600 layoffs, Uber announced 10% layoffs... (Information confirmed by Grok+GPT)
If large companies are like this, what about small companies?
The current corporate layoff trend is influenced by AI replacing human labor combined with economic trends. Although rate cuts cannot solve the AI replacement issue, rate hikes still need to be carefully considered.
Therefore, the market's expectation for a rate hike in September is relatively high, including CME interest rate futures and Polymarket predictions.
┈➤ Releasing rate hike expectations
The Fed will most likely release rate hike expectations.
Brother Feng has analyzed this issue more than once: rate hikes cannot solve inflation caused by rising oil prices.
However, inflation caused by rising oil prices triggers expectations and demand for wage increases. Once wages rise, it further pushes up corporate costs, which then causes prices of goods and services to rise.
The role of rate hike expectations is to suppress wage increase expectations in this "wage-inflation" spiral, thereby curbing the "wage-inflation" spiral.
┈➤ Final notes on layoff trends: on one hand, they reduce the sufficiency for Fed rate hikes. On the other hand, with layoffs ongoing, Americans' demand and desire for wage increases will also decline, reducing the "wage-inflation" spiral trend, which in turn reduces the necessity for Fed rate hikes.
This is quite an interesting logic.
Combined with market expectations, there is a high probability of no rate hike tonight.
Since the FOMC meetings occur roughly every one and a half months, there is no meeting in August, making it a monetary policy gap month. The latter half of the month may start to price in a September rate hike. The first half of the month may not be very quiet; crypto mainly watches the Senate full vote on that clear bill.
As for September, if inflation issues are severe in September or Q4, the Fed may hike rates once to better exert this suppressive effect.
But a single rate hike is not a continuous rate hike cycle, so market panic and liquidity expectations may be relatively limited.
Of course, the key concern is if the September dot plot releases a more hawkish signal.
Is SK Hynix's financial report below expectations? Three key points to watch in SK Hynix's earnings report!
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动
┈➤ SK Hynix's operating revenue indeed fell short of the average expectation
According to Yahoo platform, forecasts from 27 analysts from major global investment banks:
◆ The average expected operating revenue for SK Hynix in 26Q2 is ₩84.12 trillion,
◆ The low estimate is ₩76.6 trillion,
◆ The high estimate is ₩91.74 trillion.
The actual reported figure is ₩79.3187 trillion, only 3.55% above the low estimate, 5.17% below the average expectation, not to mention the high estimate.
This is likely the reason for today's sharp drop in #海力士.
┈➤ SK Hynix's EPS exceeded expectations
╰✦ EPS far exceeded expectations
Also from Yahoo Finance:
◆ SK Hynix's 26Q2 EPS average expectation: ₩70,975.38
◆ Low estimate: ₩61,998.81
◆ High estimate: ₩76,447
The actual EPS reported is ₩131,478, exceeding the highest expectation by 79.99%.
Of course, with operating revenue below average expectation but EPS far exceeding expectations, this discrepancy likely comes from non-operating income. SK Hynix probably had some income growth here, possibly involving some financial techniques, but it should not be excessively inflated.
╰✦ Daily candlestick close
The EPS far exceeding expectations might explain SK Hynix's daily candlestick close. SK Hynix opened today at ₩1,567,000, hit a low of ₩1,246,000, and closed at ₩1,401,000.
The lower shadow is close in length to the body; this pattern is not necessarily a reversal signal but could indicate a potential rebound.
┈➤ SK Hynix's operating profit margin leads but rises moderately
╰✦ Operating profit margin leads
Some believe that SK Hynix's long-term HBM contract locked in capacity, so it missed out on the DRAM price increase benefits.
However, although the long-term contract locked capacity, it did not lock prices, so it does not actually affect SK Hynix's revenue growth in the HBVM field.
Regarding the DRAM price increase benefits, Samsung has a higher market share than SK Hynix in the DRAM sector. But Samsung's operating profit margin in 26Q2 was only about 52%, while SK Hynix's operating profit margin was 76%, far higher than Samsung's.
╰✦ Operating profit margin rises moderately
However, attention should be paid to SK Hynix's moderate increase in operating profit margin. A high operating profit margin indicates a greater advantage of cost relative to price. But a small increase in operating profit margin suggests this advantage may be weakening.
Theoretically, leading companies innovate technologically, possibly selling at higher prices or producing at more advantageous costs, thus gaining more operating profit margin.
However, as peer companies imitate technology or demand growth slows after a surge, operating profit margin may level off.
╰✦ Final notes
First, SK Hynix's Q2 revenue grew 51% quarter-over-quarter, operating profit grew 615%, and net profit grew 133%, still in a healthy growth trend.
Second, SK Hynix's operating revenue exceeded the lowest expectation but did not reach the average expectation level.
Third, SK Hynix's EPS data far exceeded expectations; it is speculated there might be some financial techniques involved, but EPS is clearly above expectations.
Fourth, SK Hynix's operating profit margin increased by 4 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, with growth slowing. This indicates HBM technology or demand has entered a moderate growth phase.
Fifth, SK Hynix's operating profit margin remains higher than Nvidia and Samsung, indicating that the HBM and storage industry benefits still exist but have shifted from an explosive phase to moderate growth.
In fact, operating revenue below expectations but EPS exceeding expectations means market declines or rises are sometimes not entirely rational but selectively interpreted.
Fortunately, SK Hynix's daily candlestick has closed, possibly starting a rebound wave. #skhy $XSKHY
Currently, SK Hynix has only released a summary and core information of the financial report; the full report has not yet been published. Later, Brother Feng will try to dig out more useful information.
The first step in the bear market research project might be the process of elimination
deBridge team might be one of the most perceptive Web3 teams.
Starting in 2023 with the Solana ecosystem, developing cross-chain between Solana and EVM ecosystems in 2024~2025; developing AI tools in Q1 2026, focusing on cross-chain payments in Q2 2026...
They integrated with HyperLiquid and HyperEVM ecosystems before HyperLiquid became popular, and quickly supported Robinhood after its launch...
┈➤ Ecosystems suspected of lying dormant
At some point, deBridge stopped supporting several ecosystems, including:
◆ Stablecoin-dedicated chain — Plasma, TVL $609.7 million
◆ Public chain established in 2015 — Gnosis, TVL $99.61 million
◆ Deeply tied with Bybit — Mantle, TVL $7,812
◆ Creator of the POL consensus three-token model — Berachain, TVL $49.79 million
◆ High-speed parallel public chain — Sei, TVL $41.64 million
◆ Chain derived from Fantom — Sonic, TVL $14.14 million
◆ Self-developed chain for gaming and consumer use — Flow, TVL $1,087
◆ Consumer chain built by a large enterprise team — Abstract, TVL $10.16 million
Additionally, there are BOB and Neon, with TVL under $10 million.
These ecosystems that stopped being supported are likely those with very small cross-chain capital scale on deBridge.
┈➤ Ecosystems possibly still active
Besides mainstream public chains, deBridge still supports some relatively new public chains, including:
◆ Ethereum L2 — MegaETH, TVL $46.52 million
◆ Developed by MetaMask's parent company — Linea, TVL $27.83 million
◆ Popular parallel public chain — Monad, TVL $827 million
◆ Transitioned to AI training data — DATA (formerly Story), TVL $257,500.
Detailed comparison shows that #Linea and Monad ecosystems have relatively higher activity, with Linea having more contract deployments. Also, MetaMask's developer count and activity frequency are high.
#Monad performs better in TVL, active addresses, developer count, and token price increase. Both have relatively low estimated ratios, which is expected since the market fears high valuations; projects with higher market caps usually have lower ratios.
Melix's premium rebounded today
Yesterday it dropped directly from 28.37% to 15.44%. Except for the unstable phase in the first 3 days after listing, this is the smallest premium for SKHY.
During the US stock overnight session today, $SKHY fell slightly and followed the original stock down after the market opened.
However, the premium still recovered to above 24%.
If you haven't bought a Tradingview membership, interested friends can directly use the code:
NASDAQ:SKHY*10/(KRX:000660/FX_IDC:USDKRW)-1
#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股
I have also found the reason why I can't make money!
I am completely convinced! At this stage, MSTR is just a blood bag transfusing blood to STRC.
MicroStrategy last week arbitrarily issued an additional 1.435% of $MSTR, then repurchased 0.276% of $STRC.
MSTR dilutes BTC coin holdings with a higher issuance ratio,
while STRC reduces circulation with a smaller repurchase ratio.
As a result, at the opening, STRC rose 2%, but MSTR/BTC actually rose 5%. I...
I have calculated MicroStrategy's accounts clearly, but I just can't figure out human nature!
I always thought Saylor was more genius than SBF, but netizens insist that SBF is more genius.
The only explanation I have is that even stupid consensus is consensus, but then Binance Square netizens say I am the stupid one...
tvbee
Found the reason why I always lose money trading by myself!
◆ The reason for losses in contracts is:
Every time I make a profit, I stop paying attention, setting my take profit too greedily, and when I check again, I'm at a loss.
Every time I lose, I keep watching, and after watching for a while, I can't bear the stop loss, and once I stop loss, it reverses.
◆ The reason for losses in spot trading is that after 8 years as a crypto blogger, I've developed bad habits:
In bear markets, I study the market because everyone is focused on when the market will improve.
In bull markets, I study projects because everyone is focused on which coins can earn the most.
The result is that I didn't find good projects in the bear market and didn't exit at the top.
Anyone here have the same habits as me?
Saylor once again plays on human nature, STRC mini buyback releases positive news
Last week recommended buying $STRC
, and this week indeed released good news.
┈➤MSTR continues to inject capital into STRC
MicroStrategy last week issued additional $MSTR financing $544.5 million.
Among them, about $25 million was used to buy back STRC, accounting for 0.275% of the total STRC supply, but STRC opened with a gap up, rising 2.12%.
MicroStrategy can also sell $1000 million worth of BTC to buy back STRC.
┈➤Dollar reserves can pay dividends and interest until August-September 2028
After the buyback, STRC's monthly dividends decreased by $289K.
Most of the proceeds from the MSTR issuance are still included in the dollar reserves.
Therefore, the dollar reserves can pay dividends and interest until August-September 2028.
┈➤In conclusion
It can only be said that Saylor still knows how to play on human nature.
MicroStrategy has been working hard to increase dollar reserves, but since July, STRC's price has been fluctuating between $84 and $89 without obvious improvement.
MicroStrategy started buying back STRC last week; although the buyback volume is small, it still affects market sentiment:
On one hand, last week MSTR was issued out of thin air, but the MSTR/BTC ratio opened up 5% today.
And STRC gapped up today, with a high of $89.39, hoping STRC can break upward.
