心态放好就可以了
心态放好就可以了
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The inflow situation of Bitcoin ETF next week is very important.
Yesterday, the net outflow ended and there was even a slight inflow.
This upward wave from 8K includes short covering and short liquidations.
Open Interest (OI) has clearly decreased, and the spot CVD is currently relatively stable.
The Coinbase premium index shows
that the current interest from the US side is not strong enough.
Institutions are waiting for the CPI and PPI data on the 14th and 15th before making plans.
The weekly close this week needs close attention.
Liquidity is relatively low over the weekend, so there is no substantial reference.
Ethereum's volume has been weak during the rebound these past two days.
During the decline phase, volume actually increased,
indicating that selling pressure in the market has not been cleared.
The rebound is only a technical correction, not a trend reversal.
This must be kept clear.
Most likely, it will retest the four-hour moving average area later.
After that, this rebound will basically be over.
The next step, barring surprises, will be a direct drop to around 2350.
If it doesn't reach this level,
the current downward structure will not be considered complete
On October 10, the XRP Ledger recently fixed a payment system vulnerability that may date back to 2015. This vulnerability could have allowed attackers to bypass the system's calculation limits on token exchange amounts through a specially crafted payment transaction, creating and spending a large amount of XRP out of thin air, thereby undermining the mechanism that caps the total XRP supply at 100 billion.
According to disclosures, attackers could create hundreds of accounts, have these accounts post offers to exchange a small amount of tokens for a large amount of XRP, and then execute all these in a single payment. Due to a flaw in the software's calculation of the total transaction amount, the seller accounts might receive the full XRP amount, while the buyer accounts would pay almost nothing.
Researchers Cayden Liao and Veria AI reported this vulnerability on September 22. RippleX subsequently reproduced the attack and confirmed that the generated XRP could be used in subsequent transactions. RippleX stated that there is currently no evidence that this vulnerability has been exploited on any public network. The development team released xrpld version 3.4.1 on September 25 to fix the vulnerability.
After BTC oversold to 80340 in the early morning, it found support and rebounded, currently approaching around 82000;
ETH simultaneously dropped close to the 2400 mark, with the oversold rebound currently near 2485.
From a technical perspective, BTC is short-term suppressed at 82500, with important resistance levels above at 82800--83300;
On a smaller scale, bearish momentum is weakening, indicating there may still be some room for recovery during the daytime session.
However, the daily chart shows consecutive bearish candles, indicating bears are dominating!
Currently, Bitcoin is in a larger-scale wide-range box consolidation.
Previously, it repeatedly held the daily support near the key 8.25K level.
This inevitably accumulated a large number of short orders.
Instead, it will squeeze back to the daily box and re-enter a tug-of-war.
Later, I tend to see a short squeeze pattern from the previous consolidation phase.
First, a small step upward, then a large bearish candle directly piercing through the upper edge of the box.
As for whether the liquidity release can push it into the next expansion range,
we still need to observe and confirm later.
Today, Bitcoin experienced an oversold rebound, but the volume throughout was noticeably weak. The bulls' willingness to actively push upward is insufficient. This is just a downward consolidation, and the decline is expected to continue afterward. Intraday, you can wait for the rebound to around 8.3K to continue buying, but don't go heavy-handed or trade emotionally.
It's the same with Ethereum, but due to weakening spot inflows, yesterday's decline was almost twice that of Bitcoin! Because of different capital preferences, the support strength is obviously weaker. Facing the same macro instability, it has resulted in a different situation.
Or it can be simply understood as leverage clearing; after Bitcoin stops stacking, Ethereum has the chance to show a stronger rebound.
It should be noted that Ethereum is still weaker compared to Bitcoin currently, so there's no need to enter the market simultaneously at the recent low point.
BTC script idea, from the naked K perspective, yesterday's daily K-line closed with a large bearish candle; and the large bearish candle was on high volume, having pierced the lower boundary line of the consolidation area.
This is the classic key point theory, where the price, after sufficient brewing, chooses a directional turning point, forming a new trend.
The red line is the top-bottom reversal level; when the price reaches this area, it will consolidate or slightly rebound, equivalent to a downtrend continuation; then it will further probe the green line stage.
All of the above conclusions are drawn from the naked K combined with volume-price relationship reactions; the analysis only represents personal views, there is no holy grail in this market, only increasing probabilities, and this article does not provide any investment advice.
The National Day holiday has officially ended. Actually, judging from the price of Bitcoin, there isn't much difference compared to the 1st; there were several rollercoaster rides in between, with liquidity mainly concentrated at the 87k and 82k levels.
Overall, the situation is quite tense and the environment is tight. Currently, there is no sign of a bottom on the smaller timeframes, and it may continue downward for a while to shake out most of the longs below.
With this adjustment, the 4-hour chart is already approaching oversold territory; a bit more pullback will truly form it, so today is still about waiting for a buying opportunity around 81-82k.
The U.S. government address continued to transfer out 5,382.1 BTC ($448 million) into Coinbase Prime from last night to early this morning.
From early yesterday to now, over 32 hours, they have cumulatively transferred tokens worth $670 million, including:
6,215.7 BTC ($520 million);
119 million USDT;
40,285 BNB ($31.63 million).
All BTC and USDT were transferred into Coinbase Prime.
As soon as the Fed minutes were released, everything crashed. Gold fell, Bitcoin fell, European and American stock markets fell, 120,000 people were liquidated, and $700 million disappeared instantly.
The market had been betting on a rate cut, but the Fed insisted on continuing to raise rates, shattering expectations and causing a capital stampede. The 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.7%, risk-free rates surged, and stocks and gold all need to be recalculated.
Don't go against the Fed; if it says it will raise rates, don't bet on it stopping. The probability of a rate hike in December is 64%. Whether gold can hold 4100 is key. Bitcoin's high-leverage long positions have just been bloodied; don't rush to bottom-fish. As long as oil prices don't fall and the Fed doesn't ease, this adjustment is not over.