Just finished reviewing this week's macro data, and there are a few changes worth noting. U.S. nonfarm payroll additions were below expectations, and wage growth remains weak. After revision, the PCE shows that inflation this year has been slightly lower than previously estimated. Coupled with turmoil in the French financial markets, the urgency for rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in October is diminishing. Economists' consensus is that the bar for an October rate hike is now very high. But the option for December remains. Service sector inflation may keep the possibility of a December hike alive. Before hiking rates again, the Fed will likely need clearer evidence that price pressures have returned. In other words, it’s not "rate hikes are over," but rather "more reasons are needed before hiking again." Previously, CME data showed a 57.6% probability of an October hike, but Goldman Sachs has already said an October hike is unlikely. Now with weaker nonfarm data, this view is further supported. Nonfarm data shifting from strong to weak, and rate hike expectations moving from heating up to cooling down — this swing itself is the main source of current market volatility. Weaker data is marginally positive for risk assets, but uncertainty about the interest rate path remains unresolved; it’s just that the timing window has shifted later. For the crypto market, the reduced urgency for rate hikes means marginal relief in valuation pressure, but the true "shift to easing" is still some way off. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势

Just saw a piece of news: Trump has once again promised that if the Republican Party wins the midterm elections, he will distribute a $5,000 "dividend" to every adult American citizen. Based on 240 million adults, the total scale is about $1.2 trillion. He said it would not require Congressional approval. The premise is that the money must be spent domestically within the United States. $1.2 trillion is one of the largest economic stimulus plans in the U.S. since the COVID-19 pandemic. And it appears at a special macro moment: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5.29%, the highest since 2007; Federal Reserve officials have just said that "the U.S. fiscal path is unsustainable." The tension between fiscal stimulus and debt sustainability is very directly reflected in this promise. On one hand, money is given to residents; on the other hand, debt interest payments are already consuming fiscal space. If this plan really moves forward, inflation expectations may be pushed higher. And rising inflation expectations will further affect the Fed's interest rate path. Against the backdrop of current high interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high, an additional $1.2 trillion in fiscal spending may exacerbate market concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability. In the short term, fiscal stimulus expectations may boost risk appetite. In the medium term, inflation and interest rate uncertainties may pose pressure. This promise is currently still a campaign pledge, and there is great uncertainty about whether it can be realized. But it reflects a trend: fiscal expansion is becoming a core tool of the political agenda. And this expansion directly conflicts with the current macro environment of high interest rates and high debt. For the crypto market, if inflation

Just saw a message: The co-proposer of EIP-8363 announced the formal withdrawal of the proposal to include it in the Hegotá upgrade. The original intention of this proposal was to introduce a burn mechanism for validator issuance rewards that increases with the total amount staked. The logic is that a high staking ratio threatens Ethereum's neutrality and monetary properties, so the more staked, the more rewards are burned. Opposition voices come from the founder of Aave, the CEO of ether.fi, and a core contributor of Lido. Their main argument is that cutting rewards will force individual independent stakers to exit, while large institutions can withstand it due to economies of scale and lower operating costs. The result is a more centralized staking market, not more decentralized. This rebuttal is very strong. The proposal's original intention was to maintain decentralization, but opponents point out it may have the opposite effect. The Ethereum Foundation previously stated that the fork schedule is not the appropriate place to finalize issuance policy. This statement effectively sets a procedural barrier for the proposal—the adjustment of issuance policy should be discussed under a dedicated governance framework and cannot be pushed through the timing of a hard fork. The core disagreement in this event is not a technical issue but a governance issue: how to maintain decentralization—by limiting scale or by lowering participation barriers? The proposers chose to withdraw and turn to an independent issuance policy discussion, planning to continue negotiations during Devcon in November. This indicates that adjustments to Ethereum's issuance policy require broader community consensus, not just a single hard fork to resolve.

Just finished reading Citibank's latest report, where they raised their 12-month price targets. Bitcoin was adjusted from 82,000 to 113,000, and Ethereum from 2,240 to 3,028. Based on current prices, this corresponds to approximately 38% and 35% upside potential, respectively. Citibank says that capital inflows into the crypto market will resume but at a slower pace than before, with the overall trend stabilizing. The main new inflows come from advisory institutions and brokerages— as they gradually increase their Bitcoin allocations, capital inflows are expected to continue. They forecast $5 billion inflows over the next 12 months. Five billion is not a large number, but the type of capital it represents is different. The allocation behavior of advisors and brokerages is long-term and planned, not short-term timing. The report mentions that the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act last week, so the regulatory framework is still pending. However, at the same time, the US Treasury's repurchase of long-term bonds weakened the dollar, which reignited the crypto market's upward momentum. Citibank's price targets are not short-term forecasts but judgments for the next 12 months. Its core logic is a shift in the structure of capital inflows—from retail-driven to advisor and brokerage-driven. If this shift is real, its impact on the market is more profound than a single large inflow. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出

Just saw some data: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.29%, hitting a new high since 2007. What does 5.29% mean? In 2007, it was the eve of the global financial crisis. Now it has returned to that level. The 10-year US Treasury yield is the core benchmark for global asset pricing. Its rise means the denominator for all asset valuations is increasing. It had already surpassed 5%, exceeding the earnings yield of the S&P 500. Now at 5.29%, bonds are even more attractive relative to stocks. This is the most attractive moment for bonds in about 25 years. Economic data is strong, with initial jobless claims dropping to a 57-year low. Inflation remains above the 2% target. The US fiscal path has been described by Federal Reserve officials as "unsustainable." AI and tech investments are competing with the bond market for funds. These factors combined have pushed yields to the highest level since 2007. In the short term, rising risk-free rates put valuation pressure on risk assets. When you can get a 5.29% risk-free return from Treasuries, high-risk assets need to offer higher premiums to attract capital. But from another perspective: when US Treasury yields hit a new high since 2007 and the US fiscal path is officially described as "unsustainable," Bitcoin as a "non-debt asset" narrative may gain more attention. These two forces act simultaneously; the trade-off between short-term pressure and long-term narrative is one of the core contradictions in current crypto market pricing. $BTC $ETH $BTC #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long

Just finished reading Goldman Sachs' latest assessment. The core change is: Wednesday's inflation data, combined with Williams' speech yesterday, led Goldman Sachs to believe that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in October. They have pushed the expectation for the second rate hike from October to December. Goldman Sachs expects the core PCE year-over-year growth rate in Q4 to be 3.0%, significantly lower than the FOMC participants' median forecast of 3.4%. This gap is central to the judgment—if actual inflation is below the Fed's own forecast, the necessity to continue raising rates decreases. Goldman Sachs also added that the FOMC is very likely to conclude that further rate hikes are unnecessary. Previously, CME data showed a 57.6% probability of a rate hike in October and 42.4% for no change. Goldman Sachs' judgment implies that the probability of no change in October may further increase. If there is no rate hike in October, it is a marginal positive for risk assets in the short term. But Goldman Sachs has not completely ruled out a rate hike in December, only pushing the time window back. This means uncertainty about the interest rate path remains, just temporarily eased. The inflation data gives the Fed a reason to pause, but whether this is a "pause" or an "end" still requires more data to confirm. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解

A key market structural change is underway. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken above 5% and surpassed the earnings yield of the S&P 500 index measured by the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio, pushing the attractiveness of bonds relative to stocks to the highest level in about 25 years. Core implication: Based solely on yield comparison, investors holding U.S. Treasuries now receive returns higher than the current earnings yield of stocks. Bond yield: 10-year U.S. Treasury breaks above 5% Stock earnings yield: inverse of the S&P 500 P/E ratio (E/P) Conclusion: Bond yield > Stock earnings yield, a first in about 25 years Yale model: Stocks may outperform bonds by only about 1% over the next 10 years The cyclically adjusted excess CAPE yield model by Yale economist Robert Shiller shows that, given current stock valuations and Treasury yields, the S&P 500 may outperform bonds by only about 1% annually over the next decade. However, it should be noted that the model's predictive accuracy has declined in recent years, with actual stock market performance significantly exceeding prior expectations. This means the "1%" figure is a reference value, not a definitive conclusion. Market implications Stock valuations face higher demands: The high yields partly reflect the resilience of the U.S. economy but also impose higher requirements on stock valuations and corporate earnings expectations. When the risk-free rate reaches 5%, stocks need stronger earnings growth to justify current valuations. Bond allocation value is being reassessed: Investors who previously bet on long-term U.S. Treasuries have already experienced bond...

Just finished reading this report on the US-Iran negotiations. The core message is: both sides are privately pessimistic. Iranian officials privately believe the likelihood of reaching an agreement before the midterm elections in November is very low, and they even fear conflict escalation after the midterms. The US side also lacks trust in Tehran. Trump publicly denied media reports about "easing sanctions and unfreezing funds," calling it a "scam." The core disagreements remain unresolved. Iran's conditions are clear: the US must lift the maritime blockade and oil sanctions before discussing reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US demands Iran make concessions on its nuclear program. Both sides stick to their positions with no overlap. Qatar, the mediator, is still shuttling between the two, but Al-Raqi has already returned to Tehran and will not stay in New York waiting for a US response. The market has already reacted. Brent crude rose 2% on Monday, reaching about $106.20 per barrel. Higher oil prices will push up inflation expectations, which in turn affect US Treasury yields and global interest rate trajectories—this is one of the most important transmission chains in the current macro environment. The June memorandum of understanding facilitated a ceasefire, but it collapsed in less than two weeks. The core disagreements in this round of talks are the same as last time: the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear program. When the core demands of both sides do not intersect, the room for mediation is very limited. The renewed rise in geopolitical risk premiums may become a new variable affecting energy prices, inflation expectations, and risk asset pricing. For the crypto market, performance in this environment depends on whether the market classifies it as a "risk asset" or a "non-sovereign safe haven asset." BTC's recent muted response to macro variables is worth noting

Just saw a piece of news: Ethereum's leading restaking protocol ether.fi is exiting the restaking business and shifting to a crypto "new bank" model. CEO Mike Silagadze put it bluntly: restaking no longer offers "meaningful profit opportunities," and users face additional risks, so they are exiting. As of September 8, the restaking sector manages assets worth $10.02 billion, generating only about $100,000 in fees over the past week. Liquid staking manages assets worth $51.87 billion, generating $27.35 million in fees. Per dollar of assets, ordinary staking produces 53 times the fees of restaking. The returns from restaking are insufficient to cover the risks; this is not just ether.fi's problem but a dilemma for the entire sector. The top five protocols—Renzo, Kelp, Swell, Puffer, Bedrock—combined gross profits of $953,000 in Q2, a significant drop from $2.18 million in the previous three quarters. ether.fi is shifting its focus to the crypto new bank—payment cards, lending markets, yield vaults, tokenized stocks, and metals. Moving from "yield aggregation" to a "financial services platform" is a typical path for DeFi protocols seeking new directions after yield opportunities diminish. The restaking sector was once highly anticipated, but data shows it has not generated enough returns to sustain itself. ether.fi's exit is a landmark event—when a leading protocol chooses to abandon a sector, it indicates that the economic model of that sector has failed to work. $ET