多多不梭哈
多多不梭哈
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Micron's earnings report at 4 AM tonight, earnings call at 4:30 AM.
I don't want to broadcast it, brothers, please pay attention yourselves
$MU #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
· US September ADP Employment Change ("Small Nonfarm Payrolls"): Expected 70,000, Previous 38,000.
· August Core PCE Price Index (Year-over-Year): Expected 3.3%, Previous 3.3%.
· August Core PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month): Expected 0.3%, Previous 0.2%.
· Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarterly Final: Expected 1.5%, Previous 1.5%.
The core transmission chain is: Core PCE → Federal Reserve rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields → Risk assets (US stocks/cryptocurrency).
Currently, the 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, reaching a nearly 19-year high. The market has priced in 4 more 25 basis point rate hikes before June 2027. This means the market has already priced in expectations in advance.
Specific scenario analysis for the Core PCE monthly rate:
· If 0.2% (below expectations): Inflationary pressure marginally weakens, potentially shaking the recent rate hike logic, US Treasury yields fall back, benefiting US stocks and cryptocurrency rebound. The market may question whether recent rate hikes have been excessive.
· If 0.3% (meets expectations): Basically priced in by the market, limited impact, market reaction may be relatively mild, focus shifts to ADP data.
· If 0.4% or 0.5% (above expectations): Major negative. Will strengthen rate hike expectations, push up US Treasury yields, US stocks and cryptocurrency will face a new round of selling pressure,
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
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Key focus tonight
20:15 US September ADP Employment Change
20:30 US August Core PCE Price Index YoY
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
Am I not cut out for trading? Why is it that the ones I hold just pull back, and the ones I don't hold take off? Tired $ETH
The biggest impact on the US stock and crypto markets this week comes from Wednesday's PCE inflation data and Friday's non-farm payroll report. These two data points will directly determine the market's pricing of whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in October. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is as high as about 70%.
📊 Key Data Point 1: August PCE Inflation (Wednesday)
This is the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
· Market expectation: Overall PCE year-on-year remains at 3.7%, core PCE year-on-year about 3.3%, still far above the 2% target.
· Impact on US stocks: PCE exceeding expectations and being hotter than expected is the biggest downside risk for the current market.
· Impact on crypto: The transmission is even more intense. The crypto market is extremely sensitive to liquidity expectations; hotter-than-expected PCE will push up US Treasury yields and the dollar, directly suppressing Bitcoin and other risk assets;
📊 Key Data Point 2: September Non-Farm Payroll Report (Friday)
This is the last non-farm data before the October monetary policy meeting and has a very strong signaling effect.
· Impact on US stocks: The logic is somewhat subtle. If the data exceeds expectations strongly, the market will interpret it as the economy being resilient enough to withstand further rate hikes, which in the short term may actually intensify tightening concerns and suppress the stock market; if the data is significantly below expectations (e.g., below 50,000), it will trigger recession fears, which is unfavorable for cyclical stocks but may support growth stocks due to falling interest rate expectations.
· Impact on crypto: Historically highly volatile. If strong data recurs, Bitcoin faces a very high risk of similar downside shocks. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
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