夏威夷企鹅
夏威夷企鹅
我在过去的时间，总是想要去把很多东西确定下来。 为此，我付出了大量的时间和金钱，但是结果不尽如人意。 我现在明白，事情真的很难确定，你没有办法去控制明天会发生什么。 我们能控制的，只有当下的事情。 我们在做一件事的时候，应该仔仔细细的去思考它可能的结果，不能等错误发生之后才哀叹。 我们不需要做太多的决定，我们只需要在关键的事情上做出一个自己深思熟虑后的决定就好。 不冒进，不退缩，面临选择，慎思笃行。
13Following
631followers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
Pinned
After analyzing all the contracts, I personally believe that regularly investing in $TRIA now is the best choice.
It is very likely to increase more than tenfold in the next two months.
I trust my judgment, let's wait and see, everyone.
Pinned
Starting from $30, I earned $1260, and now I've lost back down to $50. Can I still recover?
In early May this year, I said I wanted to make 3000 dollars with 30 dollars. Last month, I was so close to that goal. But after just over ten days, I was down to 50 dollars. I didn't know what to do now; it seemed like no matter what I did, it was wrong. —————————————————— I summarized the lessons from this failure. The main thing was misjudging the market direction. The market kept rising, while I kept shorting. Shorting was one thing, but I also shorted several soaring coins, like $USELESS, which greatly increased my losses. Not only was I losing money shorting, but I was also losing money going long. During this period, I mainly held old monster coins like $LAB, which performed very poorly during this period of surge. Overall, I was killed by both long and short coins. —————————————————— At the beginning of the rise, my rash judgment that the price would quickly fall, which was actually wrong. At the time, I noticed some clues. When I matched Trump's words with the candlesticks, I found that the price had already risen a lot before Trump spoke. This was actually a signal, indicating that the market was positive not only because of Trump's remarks, but I didn't pay much attention to it at the time. The main positive factors in this round of market support were the U.S. Treasury Treasury bond repurchase and Trump's speech. The U.S. Treasury repurchase would improve liquidity and was a de facto positive for crypto. I overlooked this positive at the time, which led to a serious misjudgment. Learning from the lesson
Pinned
Currently, I still have about 30 dollars left in my account
I lost nearly $3,000 in OKX's history
There is about a hundred times between these two numbers
But I think I can break even with 30 dollars
I used to say I should be calm
The pinned post also explains why my position is small
But that doesn't stop my position from gradually getting bigger
The premise is that I can increase my balance
If I lost all 30 dollars again,
I'll probably top up another $30
Personally, I think
Making $3,000 is easier than recharging 100 times for $30
Everyone
Let's wait and see
I will keep my heart as still as still water
Go seriously and seriously speculate on cryptocurrencies
I believe in my tactical skills
And trust my years of thinking about crypto trading
I don't consider myself an arrogant person
But I am truly confident I can break even with $30
The display in the picture is different from my actual stock
Because OKX currently only has data from November 2023 onward
But I started trading coins a bit earlier
So it underestimated some of my losses
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
Last night the market was divided, with $ETH and $BTC experiencing a rare surge.
However, the US stock market showed divergence; hardware tech stocks like $SNDK plummeted, while tech stocks like $AAPL rose significantly.
——————————————————
This is a very strange phenomenon because generally, tech rebounds happen together, but this time hardware tech did not rebound.
I believe this is related to the sentiment of the American public, who are now strongly opposed to data centers.
Data centers have driven up local water and electricity prices, leading to strong resistance.
If you study the US election carefully, you will notice that most of the states that flipped blue have been building many data centers.
Now that the Democrats are in power, the construction of data centers may be paused.
This casts a shadow over the future of hardware tech stocks, which I think is why they have not been rising.
Apart from hardware tech stocks, other tech sectors in the US stock market have been doing quite well, which aligns with the rise in crypto.
——————————————————
I have thought about the future trend of crypto, and I believe it is still not the time to go long because it is very likely we are still halfway up the mountain.
I am posting a chart here, which shows a complete downtrend process. We are probably at the first bullish call, and at such times, it is important not to be greedy.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
夏威夷企鹅
After the midterm elections, the market rebounded across the board. Is the bull market back?
$BTC, $ETH, and $SNDK have all experienced a rebound, and the market looks very prosperous. Many people seeing this scene might think the bull market has returned. However, I believe the bull market has not returned yet; this is just a last flicker before a major market crash. We look at this from two perspectives: one is the midterm election results, and the other is the contract data of $ETH. Both perspectives can help us see the direction clearly. —————————————————— Let's first look at the midterm elections. The midterm election results were a big win for the Democrats, taking both the House and Senate, making Trump a lame-duck president now. Given Trump's past behavior, what do you think he will do? I believe it is highly likely to be war or unlimited vetoes. To maintain his power and avoid investigations by the Democrats, Trump is very likely to continue the US-Iran conflict, which is entirely possible. Another approach is to exercise unlimited presidential veto power, a milder method, by vetoing all bills from both chambers to force the Democrats to cooperate with him. Either of these tactics is bearish for the market, so from a macro perspective, there is currently no sign of long-term bullish potential. —————————————————— Now let's look at the contract data of $ETH. Contract data reflects market sentiment and is the most direct factor affecting price; it is also one of my important bases for judgment. Let's first look at the short-term data, which is very bearish. We can see that its long-short ratio in the mid
After the midterm elections, the market rebounded across the board. Is the bull market back?
$BTC, $ETH, and $SNDK have all experienced a rebound, and the market looks very prosperous. Many people seeing this scene might think the bull market has returned. However, I believe the bull market has not returned yet; this is just a last flicker before a major market crash. We look at this from two perspectives: one is the midterm election results, and the other is the contract data of $ETH. Both perspectives can help us see the direction clearly. —————————————————— Let's first look at the midterm elections. The midterm election results were a big win for the Democrats, taking both the House and Senate, making Trump a lame-duck president now. Given Trump's past behavior, what do you think he will do? I believe it is highly likely to be war or unlimited vetoes. To maintain his power and avoid investigations by the Democrats, Trump is very likely to continue the US-Iran conflict, which is entirely possible. Another approach is to exercise unlimited presidential veto power, a milder method, by vetoing all bills from both chambers to force the Democrats to cooperate with him. Either of these tactics is bearish for the market, so from a macro perspective, there is currently no sign of long-term bullish potential. —————————————————— Now let's look at the contract data of $ETH. Contract data reflects market sentiment and is the most direct factor affecting price; it is also one of my important bases for judgment. Let's first look at the short-term data, which is very bearish. We can see that its long-short ratio in the mid
Last night, $SNDK, $BTC, and $ETH pulled back slightly.
Although the price only rose a little, many long positions exited.
I carefully analyzed the data; from last night to early this morning, many long accounts were leaving the market, which means a big rebound is not far off.
I have always held the view that the market won't surge significantly while so many are long; the whales will definitely try to reduce the number of longs, and this is currently developing in that direction.
Previously, I thought the whales might sharply spike downwards with a deep wick to burst the longs, but they didn't do that.
Based on the current price trend, the whales have chosen a method of mild upward grinding to wear out the longs, letting them exit on their own, which is a relatively gentle approach.
In my experience, many altcoins in the market tend to use a deep wick spike to burst longs and then rapidly rally.
However, it's too early to draw conclusions now; it's possible the spike could start tonight.
According to the current trend, this weekend might be a good time to go long, but for now, it's better to hesitate and observe carefully.
I still hold the view that the market always has opportunities, but we don't have unlimited capital, so we must act cautiously.
As the saying goes, think carefully and act earnestly.
This saying should apply to many people because many operate rather recklessly.
夏威夷企鹅
SanDisk slightly rose before the market opened, has it now fallen as far as it can?
Recently, tech stocks have been hit particularly hard, for example $INTC and $SNDK, both of which have already been cut in half from their highs. Their declines have been so severe that bulls are starting to doubt themselves. However, I believe this round of decline is almost over; probably by this weekend, US stocks should be buyable. —————————————————— Personally, I think there are two reasons for this downturn: one is the midterm elections, and the other is the $ANTHROPIC IPO. Let's first look at the midterm elections. Why are midterm elections bearish? Because the Democratic Party is not very friendly to the new tech elites, such as California Governor Newsom. The stance of US political parties can't be fully explained in one article; we just need to know that when the Democrats take power, they intend to impose heavy taxes on tech, and knowing this is enough. Next, let's look at the $ANTHROPIC IPO. This is an AI giant, with its core product Claude, a globally leading large model. Currently, the company's valuation is about 1.5 trillion USD, and the market needs to make room for this giant's IPO. This is another reason why tech stocks have plummeted. However, both of these bearish factors are about to end: the midterm elections will conclude in a few days, and the space for $ANTHROPIC's IPO has been created; once the bearish factors are exhausted, it turns bullish. —————————————————— Let's also take a look at the contract data for the tech stock representative — $SNDK. Let's first look at its short-term data. We can see that its contract long-short ratio has started to decline, which indicates
SanDisk slightly rose before the market opened, has it now fallen as far as it can?
Recently, tech stocks have been hit particularly hard, for example $INTC and $SNDK, both of which have already been cut in half from their highs. Their declines have been so severe that bulls are starting to doubt themselves. However, I believe this round of decline is almost over; probably by this weekend, US stocks should be buyable. —————————————————— Personally, I think there are two reasons for this downturn: one is the midterm elections, and the other is the $ANTHROPIC IPO. Let's first look at the midterm elections. Why are midterm elections bearish? Because the Democratic Party is not very friendly to the new tech elites, such as California Governor Newsom. The stance of US political parties can't be fully explained in one article; we just need to know that when the Democrats take power, they intend to impose heavy taxes on tech, and knowing this is enough. Next, let's look at the $ANTHROPIC IPO. This is an AI giant, with its core product Claude, a globally leading large model. Currently, the company's valuation is about 1.5 trillion USD, and the market needs to make room for this giant's IPO. This is another reason why tech stocks have plummeted. However, both of these bearish factors are about to end: the midterm elections will conclude in a few days, and the space for $ANTHROPIC's IPO has been created; once the bearish factors are exhausted, it turns bullish. —————————————————— Let's also take a look at the contract data for the tech stock representative — $SNDK. Let's first look at its short-term data. We can see that its contract long-short ratio has started to decline, which indicates
Last night $INTC fell below $60, while $ETH and $BTC also experienced a major drop.
At present, the market really is not ready for bottom-fishing; it's still too risky to try to catch the bottom now.
If you carefully compare their declines, you will notice one thing — $ETH's drop is very small, which is a very strange phenomenon.
Usually, Ethereum is the first to be shorted in a downturn, and its decline should be the largest, but the fact is not so.
I believe there is only one possibility: the Ethereum whales have not finished unloading their holdings and are now in a rescue-style sell-off.
My current judgment remains to short; based on my data analysis, shorting is still the right move now.
This is an indisputable fact; the overall direction is to short.
From a macro perspective, the midterm election results are very unfavorable to crypto, oil prices are very detrimental to the economy, and the Federal Reserve's ambiguous stance is also unfavorable for the future.
From a micro perspective, crypto has recently suffered thefts, the market faces huge selling pressure, which is very painful and hard to bear.
If you are unwilling to short, the best approach now is to wait and watch; rashly going long is very dangerous because not everyone can withstand such a large correction.
I still believe in the future of AI, but the path to the light will surely be full of thorns. Friends who want to bottom-fish, please consider one question carefully — are you prepared for a halving, then another halving, and yet another halving?
You must think carefully and act prudently.
#英特尔Q4指引不及预期，股价暴跌近30%
夏威夷企鹅
After the earnings report was released, Intel plummeted. Is it a good time to buy the dip now?
First, let me state my conclusion: whether from the specific financial report data or the current market sentiment, now is not a good time to bottom-fish. —————————————————— Let's first look at the specifics of the financial report. This sharp drop in $INTC is not because the financial report looks bad, but because the guidance for the next quarter is far below market expectations. Simply put, the company made a lot of money this quarter, but said it might not make much next quarter. Hearing this from the company, everyone lost confidence in the future and collectively sold off, causing Intel's stock price to plummet. We won't consider why the guidance for next quarter is so low; what we need to consider is whether the current guidance is still high. Personally, I think it is somewhat high. Generally speaking, when a child says there might be some problems, it means there are definitely big problems; otherwise, the child wouldn't say that. In other words, the guidance Intel gave now is very likely already optimistic. If that's the case, it's better not to bottom-fish for the time being. This is from the perspective of the financial report. —————————————————— Now let's look from the data perspective. This is $INTC's contract data, and we can see that during the sharp drop after the financial report was released, a lot of capital flowed into going long. If I were the market maker, I definitely wouldn't push the price up under these circumstances; I would grind it out at this level to clear out some of these long positions. So I think, short
After the earnings report was released, Intel plummeted. Is it a good time to buy the dip now?
First, let me state my conclusion: whether from the specific financial report data or the current market sentiment, now is not a good time to bottom-fish. —————————————————— Let's first look at the specifics of the financial report. This sharp drop in $INTC is not because the financial report looks bad, but because the guidance for the next quarter is far below market expectations. Simply put, the company made a lot of money this quarter, but said it might not make much next quarter. Hearing this from the company, everyone lost confidence in the future and collectively sold off, causing Intel's stock price to plummet. We won't consider why the guidance for next quarter is so low; what we need to consider is whether the current guidance is still high. Personally, I think it is somewhat high. Generally speaking, when a child says there might be some problems, it means there are definitely big problems; otherwise, the child wouldn't say that. In other words, the guidance Intel gave now is very likely already optimistic. If that's the case, it's better not to bottom-fish for the time being. This is from the perspective of the financial report. —————————————————— Now let's look from the data perspective. This is $INTC's contract data, and we can see that during the sharp drop after the financial report was released, a lot of capital flowed into going long. If I were the market maker, I definitely wouldn't push the price up under these circumstances; I would grind it out at this level to clear out some of these long positions. So I think, short
420,000 $ETH sell pressure, how much longer can the market hold?
A very hot topic recently in the crypto circle is that the largest exchange was hacked, with a total theft of about 6 billion USD. Among this, only about 2 to 3 billion actually ended up in the hackers' hands; most of it has been frozen. This 2 to 3 billion mainly consists of $BTC and $ETH. Since $BTC does not have smart contracts, it is relatively difficult to mix coins. However, $ETH is not like this. Because there are many mixers and some anonymity tools on the $ETH chain, it is relatively easy for hackers to launder this batch of funds. In other words, in the coming days and even weeks, the market will have to bear huge selling pressure. I have calculated that the $ETH stolen by the hackers plus the $ETH they obtained by selling altcoins amounts to roughly 400,000 to 500,000 $ETH. This is a very astonishing number. —————————————————— Logically, the market should have already dropped, but this time it has not fallen for a long time. I believe there is only one reason: the largest exchange is replenishing these coins. Because the coins were stolen but there is still withdrawal demand, the largest exchange must replenish these coins, which creates a strong buy order. But now, the largest exchange has already finished replenishing, and during this process, the price of $ETH did not rise much. Personally, I think the largest exchange did not directly buy a lot of coins from the market; it probably conducted large transactions from other sources. The hackers are different; they want to cash out and can only do so through the market. So below
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
Data can lie, probabilities can lie, but the price given by the market does not lie.
Personally, I think the probability of a 6% rate hike by the Fed now is low; the probability of a rate hike this time should be at least 15%.
Why?
It all depends on oil. Oil prices have already reached a very high level and have stayed high for a long time.
This indicates that the US-Iran conflict has not actually eased; it's only eased in the news.
The US has faced crises several times because of oil, and I believe the Fed will learn from this and will not wait until oil prices are truly uncontrollable before raising rates.
Therefore, I think the probability of a rate hike this time is very, very high.
Currently, I have placed a prediction order of 30,000 at the 5% level; if it is not filled by 11:30, I will place orders at the 6% to 7% levels.
I think it's worth a try.
Crypto! Not even dogs play it!
I really can't suppress the anger in my heart. Crypto, in the past two years, every market cycle has relied on liquidity spilled over from other markets. Last year, there was a big rally because of liquidity coming from the gold market; this big rally is due to liquidity coming from tech stocks. Crypto doesn't create its own wealth; it can only barely rise once by relying on handouts from other markets. This is literally like a stray dog on the roadside! If someone feels pity, they throw a piece of sausage; if no one cares, it's just a stray dog on the street. —————————————————— Today's market rebound vividly shows the true nature of crypto. Tech stocks in the US and South Korea are both rebounding, but what is crypto doing? It's freaking falling! Looking at this comparison chart, it's obvious that the trends are almost opposite. I can only say crypto is eating leftovers; what future can eating leftovers have? I now believe it's better to play the US stock market. Why? Because the US stock market has ups and downs. Those mega-cap stocks, after surging up sharply, will fall a lot; they won't let both shorts and longs be wiped out. But crypto is not like that. Crypto's rises and falls are very one-sided: either it kills all the shorts or kills all the longs. In this situation, making money is as hard as climbing to the sky. But the US stock market, after falling a lot, will have a very good rebound; after rising a lot, there will also be a considerable pullback. The US stock market's way of cutting retail investors is not as ruthless as crypto's. —————————————————— I
Didn't dare to go long on $SNDK
Although I really think it's bottomed out
But still don't dare
This drop is a bit too fierce
Actually, I thought of last year's tariffs
Last year's tariffs were like this too
At that time, it also dropped very sharply
But after the drop, it bounced back up
In my impression
Back in April during the tariffs
The market had two deep major drops
Now I think this is only the first one
Staying on the sidelines
Don't want to short now
Because I think this is halfway down the slope
There might be a fairly big rebound
+0.09
+2.61%Snapshot at Oct 17, 2026, 00:23
