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As of the week ending October 18, the daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz was about 14 million barrels, only 82% of the pre-war level. The daily number of commercial vessels passing through dropped from more than 20 per day before the conflict to at least 10. Since the beginning of this month, there have been about 30 attacks on ships in and around Hormuz, accounting for 20% of all ships attacked during the entire war. Freight rates for supertankers heading to Asia are approaching a record high of $37.37 per barrel. War risk insurance premiums have surged from less than 3% of the vessel's value to as high as 10%. Oil is still flowing. But the cost of that flow has multiplied several times over. In the past four geopolitical conflicts, BTC has always "fallen first and then risen." In 2022 Russia-Ukraine, it initially dropped 8%, then rebounded 14% after four days. In 2023 Israel-Hamas, it fell 6% that week, then surged 40% over the next 30 days. In 2025 India-Pakistan, it dropped 3% on the day, then recovered the next day. In February 2026, after the US-Israel bombing of Iran, it plunged 6%, then rebounded 17%. The script was exactly the same four times. But the four rebounds share one common premise: energy supply was never truly cut off. Russian oil was still being sold, the Pakistan conflict did not affect oil routes, and the February bombing did not block the strait. This time, the premise has changed. The Iranian Foreign Minister made it very clear: the management and navigation of Hormuz "will no longer be the same as before." In recent weeks, the Revolutionary Guard has taken action against at least seven "violating" oil tankers; between October 21 and 22, seven tankers were attacked or struck mines. On October 27, a tanker with its tracking system turned off struck a mine and caught fire in the eastern strait. The Iranian Navy explicitly stated: vessels passing without coordination make Hormuz "an unsafe state." The US Central Command said "there are no Iranian mines on the main shipping routes." Iran responded the next day with a burning tanker. Both sides speak their own words. But tanker traffic data does not lie: flow is decreasing, costs are rising. Brent crude oil is about $113.88 today, WTI near $99.90, briefly dipping below $100 intraday before pulling back. Oil prices above $100 mean the pressure of inflation penetrating from the energy sector into core inflation is real. The Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts is nailed down by oil prices; the denominator of risk asset valuations is held down by yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield hovers near 5%, reaching 5.365% on October 7, a 24-year high. BTC returned to $81,000 today, up 1%. But it still fell 2.8% over the past 7 days, with heavy selling pressure above after failing to break $100,000. A 1% rise does not mean safety. It only means the market is still waiting for an answer. $BTC $XAU $BZ