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半只猴子
半只猴子
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昨天的预测,今天应验了。 我说"Saylor 发橙色圆点,第二天大概率有买入公告"。 今天公告来了:买入 250 枚 $BTC (约 2,150 万美元),同时回购 1.92 亿美元$STRC ,持仓升到 848,250 枚。 先说一个我昨天写错的地方:我写的"总持仓 846,000 枚"是旧数据, 实际是 848,000 枚。这里更正一下。 不过这次公告里,真正值得注意的不是"买了",是"买了多少": · 8 月底:4,603 枚 · 9 月 20 日:950 枚 · 10 月 5 日:334 枚 · 这次:250 枚 四连降。 而且这次它回购 STRC 花了 1.92 亿美元,买币只花了 2,150 万—— 回购金额是买币金额的 9 倍。钱没少花,只是不花在买币上了。 我的判断:Strategy 的资本配置正在从"发股买币"转向 "回购自己的优先股"。原因不难理解——MSTR 的稀释压力已经大到 买币给股东带来的收益被稀释吃掉了。 所以"橙色圆点"这个信号要重新理解: 它仍然代表"有动作",但不再代表"大举加仓"。
半只猴子
半只猴子
MicroStrategy founder Saylor has once again posted an orange dot for Bitcoin, possibly signaling an increase in $BTC holdings. According to previous patterns, the orange dot represents MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchase record. This usually means the company is about to increase its BTC holdings. Moreover, Strategy's habit is to post a preview, then officially disclose the position change the next day. Reviewing previous actions: End of August: bought 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318 September 20: bought 950 BTC and simultaneously repurchased 174 million STRC Current total holdings: 846,000 BTC Why this is worth attention: First, Saylor's previews have almost never failed. Every time an orange dot is posted, a purchase follows the next day. Second, Strategy has funds. As of September 13, the account balance available for flexible coin purchases is still $1.3 billion. Third, BTC is currently around 82,000. This level is still above Strategy's cost basis ($75,416) but not considered high. Tomorrow, there is a high probability of another purchase announcement. #机构持续布局,BTC为何仍承压?

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