Post
EGC999
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
In the past two days, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 70% to about 50-50. It's not that inflation has truly come down, but Williams' comment of "no rush" + oil prices retreating + consumer confidence collapsing made the market discount the "continuous rate hikes" for now.
Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% and month-on-month at 0.3% is the watershed.
If tonight the core month-on-month is ≥0.3% and consumption
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