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August PCE release is imminent, the market is reducing the probability of a rate hike in October while increasing the probability for December. Can Brent VS PCE delay the rate hike expectations? First, let's talk about Williams' early morning speech, which played a key role in the current interest rate market by pushing back the October rate hike expectations and raising the threshold for another hike in October — data shows inflation rebound is accelerating. Under Williams' influence, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to 42.6%, while the probability for December rose to 57.4%, a typical shift in rate hike expectations. Williams' speech content has become the main market expectation, so tonight's PCE and small non-farm payroll data need to be priced with reference to Williams' speech expectations. The focus of August PCE data is on the core monthly rate, followed by the core annual rate. Currently, the core monthly rate is expected at 0.3%, previous value was 0.2%. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 a. Dovish data: core PCE monthly rate at 0.2%, below expectations, past core inflation weakening, combined with Williams' speech will further lower the probability of an October rate hike, the market will bet on a December hike, temporarily relieving rate hike pressure for risk markets, which is positive. b. Neutral complex data: core PCE monthly rate at 0.3%, meeting expectations, inflation remains sticky, October rate hike probability slightly rebounds, likely forming a 50% vs 50% situation with December rate hike probability. Although risk markets temporarily escape rate hike worries, the uncertainty of rate hike probabilities may cause the market to fall into more uncertainty.