Tonight's August job openings are not very significant; although the nominal data is below expectations, it cannot be said that employment is deteriorating.
Nominally, U.S. corporate demand is cooling, but detailed data shows companies have not shifted to large-scale layoffs. Currently, the situation is the same as a few months ago, with low hiring, low layoffs, and low mobility.
If there is a subsequent decline in job openings + a drop in hiring + an increase in layoffs, that would be a signal of employment recession. It is important to distinguish this here.
The voluntary quit rate remains very low, which means U.S. employees are reluctant to quit voluntarily. This reflects a decline in workers' confidence in finding new jobs. This decline is partly due to reduced economic confidence and partly possibly due to intensified job competition caused by the AI industry.
However, a long-term low voluntary quit rate is beneficial for service sector inflation but poses a long-term challenge to economic confidence. Although it weakens service sector inflation, it still cannot shake the current reality of a high probability of a 10 basis point rate hike. The key is to watch tomorrow's PCE data! #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
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