Stop focusing on topics like "US 30-year Treasury yield surges to highest since 2002"; looking at the 30Y yield alone is not very meaningful, you need to consider the overall situation!
Refer to the five different bond market trends I wrote about yesterday for this week. Tonight, Brent and US Treasury yields are diverging. Nominally, the market is worried that domestic inflation issues in the US will lead to a second rate hike, causing asset repricing (previously mentioned option a).
If this situation does not improve, and the 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields continue to rise in sync, the increase will no longer be an expectation of a second rate hike in October, but rather an expectation of the Fed raising the neutral interest rate or even returning to a rate hike cycle. This expectation is very unfavorable for risk assets (previously mentioned option c).
Potential risk: Looking at the daily bond market yield curves, the 10Y and 30Y yield curves are clearly steeper than the 2Y, and this week's yield trend means the bond market risk exposure is gradually expanding, i.e., an extremely bearish steepening trend (previously mentioned option e).
Of course, at present, the possibility of option e is still low. Here, we can observe gold's trend. Gold is falling in sync, meaning the bond market has not yet entered the option e mode. If gold later resists the yield rise or even rises together with bond yields, then beware of bond market default risk.
Because when sovereign bond credit confidence declines, it is potentially bullish for gold as a safe-haven asset!#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3%
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