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ETH at $2485, do you dare to bet? First, look at the surface: On the eve of the rate hike, everyone is waiting. It rebounded from 2060, rising 30%, but recently has been stuck oscillating between 2470-2520, hitting the 2530 resistance three times without breaking through. The yearly line is still down 15%-46%, half the distance from the all-time high of 4950. The daily line remains above the 200-day moving average, but short-term moving averages are tightly pressing down, RSI is almost oversold — a turning point is coming, tomorrow night. First thing: Bitmine has hoarded 4.9% of the circulating supply, are you still waiting for a "lower point"? Last week Bitmine bought another 27,000 ETH, bringing total holdings close to 5.96 million ETH — 4.9% of circulating supply, just shy of the 5% target. After buying, they staked a large amount, locking it down. Retail investors are waiting for 2400, 2200, or "better prices." Institutions are buying at 2485, 2530, 2580 — taking as much as possible. Second thing: ETF funds diverge, smart money is choosing sides. Last week, ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $197 million, while BTC ETFs experienced net outflows. This is a signal — funds are not leaving crypto, they are reallocating. Meanwhile, an early large whale transferred $37 million worth of ETH to OK, realizing losses. Retail sees "whale dumping," I see weak hands being cleaned out, chips moving from weak to strong hands. Every major rally starts with this script. Third thing: FOMC decision tomorrow night, this is ETH's "judgment day." There is an 80-90% chance of a 25bp rate hike, pushing rates to 3.75%-4.00%. The dot plot and SEP are more critical than the hike itself. Scenario A: Rate hike confirmed + dot plot not hawkish → all bad news priced in → ETH directly surges to 2550-2650. Scenario B: More hawkish than expected → short-term drop to 2400 or lower → but that might be the last golden pit. Bull vs. bear, you decide. On one side: Bitmine holds 5.96 million ETH (4.9% of circulating supply), still buying + staking ETH ETF net inflow of $197 million, BTC ETF outflow Daily line still above 200-day MA, Q2 network TPS hits record 25.9 Glamsterdam upgrade focuses on L1 scaling, long-term throughput improvement Exchange ETH holdings significantly down from historical peaks, tightening circulation On the other side: FOMC decision tomorrow night, huge hawkish risk 2530-2560 resistance tested thrice, clear supply zone pressure Early whale loss realized on OKX, short-term selling pressure Yearly line still down 15%-46%, half from ATH Macro liquidity still dominates short-term pricing, on-chain data less decisive Upper resistance: 2530-2560 (three walls) → 2580 → 2640-2650 Lower support: 2440-2434 → 2400-2413 (liquidity pool) → 2340-2350 Trading strategy Short-term players: Rebound to 2515-2530 meets resistance + long upper shadow → light short position, stop loss 2555-2565, target 2440→2413 Quick break below 2440 + volume surge → wait for pullback confirmation before considering short continuation Pullback to 2400-2430 with hammer + volume recovery → light long position, stop loss 2380 Mid-term players: If rate hike confirmed + dot plot not significantly revised + ETH holds 2400 → buy dips for swing, target 2550-2650. You are not betting on ETH, you are betting on the FOMC. After tomorrow night, some will break their legs, some will pop champagne. The difference is what you prepared tonight. Institutions hoarding 5.96 million ETH aren’t afraid, why panic with your few thousand USD position? ETH is still ETH, 2485 is neither the end nor the start. It’s just a place for you to make a new choice. Tomorrow night’s FOMC, will you bottom-fish, wait and watch, or stay out and watch the show? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？