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Tonight, the Market Direction May Not Be Decided by BTC Today, everyone is watching BTC. But I think there’s something more important tonight: U.S. CPI. BTC is around $78,000, well below its recent $82,000 high. What’s interesting is that we haven’t seen a real flight of capital. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw about $1.01B in net inflows over three trading days. (The Wall Street Journal) Yet at the same time: Oil is back above $100, 10-year Treasury yields are near 5%, and rate-hike expectations are rising. (Financial Times) So here’s the strange part: Institutions are buying BTC, while the macro environment is getting worse. That’s what matters. If CPI comes in hotter than expected: Inflation fears ↑ Rate-hike expectations ↑ Bond yields ↑ Risk assets under pressure ↑ But if CPI is cooler: Markets may start pricing in: Rate cuts, liquidity, and risk assets. So tonight’s real battle isn’t bulls vs. bears. It’s: Inflation vs. Liquidity. Most people ask: “Will BTC go up or down?” I’d rather ask: If BTC falls, did capital actually leave? If BTC rises, is spot demand buying—or leverage pushing? Are ETF inflows continuing? Is stablecoin supply still growing? Are whales selling into exchanges or accumulating? Because: Price is only the surface. Capital is what drives the trend. Maybe BTC will explode higher after CPI. Maybe it will suddenly drop. Either way, the first candle isn’t the most important thing. What matters is: Where does the money go after that first candle? If you’ve ever experienced: News → chasing Drop → panic Rebound → regret Then you know: The real battle may never have been against the market. It was against your emotions. Prices can mislead. News can mislead. Even the market can sometimes mislead. But capital flows are worth tracking. I don’t make calls. I focus on one thing: # Where is the money actually going? $BTC