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SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE? $BTC STILL HAS ONE BIG MACRO HURDLE TO CLEAR The market is becoming increasingly focused on what the Fed could do in September, but I think there’s an important distinction being missed. Waller’s latest comments don’t guarantee a rate cut. His message is much more conditional: If inflation continues to cool, he would lean toward keeping rates where they are. But if August inflation accelerates again, a rate hike could still be on the table. That difference matters for Bitcoin. Yes, the possibility of no additional tightening is positive compared with a scenario where rates continue moving higher. Lower pressure on liquidity generally gives risk assets more room to breathe, and that can support crypto. But we shouldn't immediately translate “no hike” into “easy money is coming.” Those are two very different environments. A pause means the Fed is waiting for more evidence. An easing cycle means financial conditions could begin becoming more supportive. Bitcoin can benefit from both, but the magnitude of the reaction can be very different. That’s why I’m paying close attention to inflation. The upcoming August CPI on September 11 could become more important than the market currently expects, especially given Waller’s emphasis on inflation when evaluating his policy stance. The setup is straightforward: Inflation cools → less pressure on the Fed → fewer reasons to tighten → better environment for risk assets. But: Inflation rises again → Fed stays concerned → hike risk increases → liquidity expectations weaken → BTC faces another hurdle. This is also why I wouldn't rely solely on employment data. A weaker labor market doesn't automatically mean the Fed will become dovish. If employment slows while inflation remains stubborn or starts accelerating, policymakers face a much more complicated decision. And that's where the market can get caught off guard. For $BTC, the current rebound is encouraging, but I don't think the macro case is fully confirmed yet.