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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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0.135美元的ARB,你是追还是等? 先看表面:三根大阳线,散户高喊“牛回速归”。 8月31日,ARB从0.084一根巨阳拉到0.109,单日涨超30%。9月1日继续冲0.119。9月3日,ARB单日暴涨18.5%至0.14美元,成为主要币种中最大涨幅品种。三天时间,从无人问津到全市场最靓的仔。 K线告诉你:所有均线都被踩在脚下。严重超买,小心回调。 第一件事:Robinhood Chain是真金白银,不是空气叙事 这次暴涨跟BTC没关系——BTC还在7.7-7.8万横着。ARB走的是独立行情,核心催化剂就一个:Robinhood Chain。 这玩意儿7月1日主网上线,基于Arbitrum Orbit技术构建。上线两个月,按合作协议,Robinhood Chain要把协议净收入的10%返还给Arbitrum生态——8%进DAO金库,2%给开发者公会。累计下来,已经给Arbitrum贡献了约130万美元的真金白银。 第二件事:但你别高兴太早——技术面已经严重超买 RSI日线冲到80以上,4小时RSI 70-78 14周期RSI 73.57,随机指标%K超过91 价格直逼布林带上轨,%B读数超过1.0——说明ARB已经超出统计上的价格边界 布林带上轨在0.13,ARB已经捅穿了 第三件事:9月中下旬,一把悬在头上的刀 9月16日,ARB解锁约9263万枚,占总供应量0.93%。 9月23日,再解锁约1.392亿枚ARB,价值约1520万美元,占总供应量1.4%。 两轮加起来超过2.3亿枚ARB解锁。 解锁不等于马上砸盘,但——在一个刚刚暴涨50%+严重超买的市场里,巨量新增供应+获利盘涌出,这配方你熟悉吗? 上方阻力:0.141(日内高点)→ 0.148-0.150 → 0.163-0.180 下方支撑:0.122-0.125 → 0.110-0.115 → 0.100 短线选手: 等回踩0.122-0.125再进,止损0.112。或者等日线站稳0.141以上再右侧追,止损0.130。 波段玩家: 等回调到0.110-0.115区间分批建仓,这是前一轮突破区,也是技术分析给出的回调目标。止损0.100。目标0.148-0.152,第二目标0.163-0.180。 风控铁律: ARB仓位别超过总资金5-8% 杠杆别碰,这波动3倍都扛不住 关注9月15-16日FOMC和9月中下旬解锁窗口 BTC如果跌破7.6万,ARB第一个跪 你每次亏钱,都是因为在底部不敢买,在顶部舍不得卖。 ARB从0.08涨到0.14,三天50%。你没上车,急了。现在想追——但追进去那一刻,你就是别人的利润。 0.135的ARB,你是等回调,还是冲进去当燃料? 你的ARB成本是多少?这波你赚了还是踏空了? $BTC $ETH $ARB #FOMC前最后一组数据:本周五非农
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
UNI at $6, are you on the bus or under the bus? First, look at the surface: positive news bombardment, price surges, retail investors frantically chasing highs. Up 38% in the past 7 days, doubling directly from the August low near $3. On September 2, it briefly broke through $6.30, hitting an eight-month high. 24-hour trading volume exceeded $1 billion, market cap surged to $3.7 billion. All moving averages are below the price. It’s risen too much, time to take a break. First thing: Robinhood Chain is the real driver behind this surge. Launched in July, Robinhood Chain traded $17.99 billion in August, 26% more than July. On September 1 alone, $1.95 billion was traded, with $1.75 billion through Uniswap pools—almost every dollar on-chain is Uniswap’s fee. Uniswap collected $9.24 million in fees on Robinhood Chain in 24 hours, accounting for the vast majority of all network fees. Robinhood Chain now generates two-thirds of Uniswap’s total revenue. Previously, Uniswap earned fees from DeFi players; now it’s earning fees from Wall Street’s RWA. Second thing: Fee Switch turns UNI from a “voting token” into a “deflationary asset.” The UNIfication proposal passed in December 2025, officially activating protocol fees. In January 2026, a one-time burn of 100 million UNI occurred, about 16% of total supply. Continuous burns followed—over $300,000 worth of UNI burned every ten days, with an annualized rate close to $160 million. Standard Chartered Bank estimates that at mid-August burn rates, the annualized burn equals about 4% of circulating supply. On July 27, 2026, Fee Switch was officially activated on V4, daily revenue soared from $118,000 in early July to $318,000. UNI now has a dual engine of cash flow plus deflation. Third thing: Technicals are overheated, but what are the whales doing? Daily RSI is between 78-81, severely overbought. MACD momentum is weakening. Price is far above all moving averages. Whales are heavily selling—selling pressure at 71%, buying pressure only 20%. Exchange inflows are rising, holdings down 5.7%, capital is flowing out. Funding rate is -1%, long-short ratio 0.56—shorts are paying longs, market extremely bearish. Resistance above: 6.20-6.37 → 7.00 → 7.81 (200-week EMA) Support below: 5.84-5.78 → 5.54-5.59 → 4.62 (EMA20) Long vs short battle, you decide. On one side: Robinhood Chain brings real RWA trading volume, protocol revenue surges Fee Switch continuously burns UNI, annual burn rate about 4% of circulating supply Doubled from $3 to $6, trend established Standard Chartered Bank targets $100 by 2030 On the other side: Daily RSI 78-81, severely overbought Whales 71% selling pressure, capital outflow FOMC meeting on September 15-16, 66% chance of rate hike If BTC pulls back, high-beta coins like UNI will be hit first Short-term players: Don’t chase highs. Wait for a pullback to 5.84-5.78 (preferably with low volume + hammer candlestick) before entering, stop loss at 5.54. Target 6.32-6.50 to take half profits, break 6.50 to aim for 7+. Swing traders: Wait for daily close above 6.0 before entering on the right side, stop loss 5.54, target 7-8. If it breaks below 5.78, exit and observe, don’t hold. Long-term believers: Dollar-cost average below 5.5. UNI’s fundamentals have changed—from governance token to deflationary asset + cash flow asset. Target 10+ by end of 2026, betting on sustained RWA growth + continued Fee Switch burns. Short sellers: If you really want to short, wait for resistance above 6.50 then try a light position, stop loss 6.60. UNI’s current logic is now the same as BTC in 2023— From “nobody cares” to “everyone wants it,” it just needs a fundamental turning point. Fee Switch is that turning point. UNI rose from 3 to 6, you hesitated for a month. When it really stabilizes at 10, will you still say “I knew it earlier”? What’s your UNI cost? At $6, do you dare to get on board? $BTC $ETH $UNI #FOMC last data set before Friday’s nonfarm payrolls

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