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My three honest thoughts on the US airstrike on Iran I know what you want to hear. BTC fell below 77,000 — you want me to say "buy the dip," say "golden pit," say "be greedy when others are fearful." Sorry, what I have to say might disappoint you. Here are my three honest thoughts without sugarcoating: First: Don’t look for "certain trading opportunities" in geopolitical conflicts. The US military airstruck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island; the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fired missiles at US bases at dawn; WTI crude oil jumped nearly 2% at open, Brent crude returned to $90; BTC dropped 1.7% in one hour. Then what? Who can tell me what happens next? Will Iran escalate retaliation? Will the US expand strikes? Will oil prices surge to 100? Will the Fed dare to cut rates seeing oil prices rise like this? No one knows. If you are heavily invested at this point, that’s not investing, that’s gambling. Second: This drop is completely different from the one in June. June’s drop was due to "employment data + rate hike expectations" — the core variable was the Fed. You could analyze data, read meeting minutes, calculate dot plots, at least there was an analytical framework. What about this time? War + energy shock + inflation expectations, a triple overlay. Oil price movement depends not on what the Fed chair says, but on what happens next second on the Middle East battlefield. The predictability of the former and the latter is worlds apart. What’s more painful: gold didn’t rise either. Spot gold opened sharply lower. Even traditional safe-haven assets are falling; why would you think BTC can stand alone in this environment? BTC’s pricing power has long left geopolitical hands and is now in the hands of US dollar liquidity. During war, it is a risk asset, not digital gold. Third: For long-term bulls, don’t be scared off by volatility; for short-term traders, reduce positions and rest. If you invest with spare money and hold for over 2 years — 77,000 and 85,000 are essentially the same. This volatility shouldn’t affect your position. But if you are a short-term trader, the best move now might be to reduce positions and wait. Why? Because the nature of geopolitical conflict is — you never know what will happen next second. Even US military leaders warned that continuing military action against Iran "will be difficult to sustain." What does that mean? It means the situation could turn or escalate at any time. Doing short-term trades in such uncertainty is like dancing in a minefield. The market doesn’t lack opportunities; it lacks the patience to wait for them. Sleep well tonight; it’s ten thousand times more important than staying up watching the charts. $BTC $XAU $BZ #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温