ETH really washed the top chasers on the high today!
The short position mentioned yesterday matched $ETH
The price first surged above 2540, then a large hourly bearish candlestick plunged directly from around 2515 to 2388, dropping more than $120 in a short time before now fluctuating back near 2420.
This surge and pullback are not surprising.
✔ The 2500–2550 range itself is an important resistance zone, with a large number of take-profit orders and long positions chasing gains gathering near the round value threshold.
✔ ETH has risen nearly 29% over the past 7 days, rising from 1900 all the way up to above 2500, accumulating significant short-term profit-taking.
✔ Open interest in futures has reached around $31.6 billion, with futures trading volume far exceeding spot trading, indicating significant leverage in the market. After failing to break through 2500, long positions at high levels concentrate stop-losses, and pullbacks will naturally be amplified.
✔ Liquidity is low over the weekend, and the same selling orders are more likely to create long bearish candles and quick insertions.
However, this pullback cannot yet be directly defined as a trend reversal.
US spot ETH ETFs still saw a net inflow of about $184 million on Friday, with cumulative inflows of about $693 million over five consecutive trading days. ETH/BTC remained relatively strong, indicating that spot funds have not completely withdrawn.
The key positions now are very clear:
✔ 2435–2450 is the first pullback resistance
✔ 2480–2510 is a more ideal shorting observation zone
✔ 2530–2550 is the bearish logic failure zone
✔ 2380–2400 is currently the primary support
✔ After breaking below 2380, the downside should be 2360 and 2320–2340
I won't chase shorts near 2420 because support is close here, and a rebound could retest 2450 at any time.
Be more aggressive: wait for a long upper shadow and a failed rebound between 2435 and 2450; Be more stable: wait for the price to break below 2380, then wait for the rebound to 2390–2400 but still can't hold back, then confirm the pullback structure holds.
This round of rally has already shown its first obvious divergence, but a pullback does not equal a reversal. Short selling only requires confirmation, no need for high-leverage to guess tops, and certainly not to keep buying short positions.
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