Walmart's earnings report released, with declining discretionary consumption data further deepening expectations of weakening U.S. consumption. Coupled with current expectations of high oil prices and high inflation, macro stagflation expectations are rising!
Currently, the macro trend has returned to this week's main theme—the validation of U.S. economic growth and consumption. After Walmart's earnings release, discretionary consumption declined, and combined with previous reports from U.S. home furnishing giants, overall U.S. consumption is weakening at the margin
With weakening consumption + current high oil prices + high inflation expectations, the market has begun anticipating stagflation trading. Before August 26, crude oil prices cannot fall effectively, and combined with core PCE remaining sticky or even rising, the market will price in stagflation
Currently, the financial market is seeing the 30-year Treasury yield rebound and rising intraday. Best is increasing long-term bond buybacks to ease pressure on the current bond market, and the accelerated rise in gold signals exposure of economic risks
In US stocks, although there has been a decline, the SPHB/SPHQ ratio remains stable, and the VIX index has not risen significantly, so the US stock market is not currently in panic but is merely in a defensive phase.
Tomorrow is the release of the preliminary US August S&P PMI. The data itself is not very weighted, but at this stage, it is likely to guide the market to trade ahead of stagflation expectations. #美财政部扩大长债回购, 30-year US Treasuries have retreated from their highs
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