Post

S&P breaks through 7800, BTC still at 63000: Why did this bull market miss cryptocurrencies? The S&P 500 intraday on August 13th surpassed 7800 points for the first time, closing at a historic high of 7798.99 points. The Nasdaq 100 is less than 2% away from a new record. The Dow Jones has risen for three consecutive weeks. South Korea's KOSPI surged 11.5% in a single week, rebounding nearly 30% from the July 30th low, officially returning to a technical bull market. Global risk assets are celebrating. Then you check Bitcoin. $62,000 to $66,000. Five weeks ago it was at 63,000, and five weeks later it’s still at 63,000. Daily volatility is less than 2%, and volatility has dropped to multi-year lows. The S&P is flying, BTC is crawling. The whole world is rising, but your account hasn’t moved. In the past two weeks, the 30-minute rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and Nasdaq 100 once hit 0.72—historically, this correlation means when US stocks rise, BTC should at least follow half the move. But this time it didn’t. US stocks added over $2 trillion in market value in August, while Bitcoin remained motionless. Why? Three reasons, each more painful than the last. First, AI is sucking up all the money. This US stock rebound is mainly driven by AI profits being realized—Palantir, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet’s AI-driven earnings reports ignited tech stocks to lead the rally. Funds are pouring crazily into semiconductor and chip stocks: SanDisk surged 35% in a week, SK Hynix rose over 20%. But cryptocurrencies are not part of this script. Paul Howard, Senior Director at market maker Wincent, put it bluntly: funds are not necessarily flowing into the crypto market. The AI sector is like a black hole, absorbing all the incremental funds in the market. Second, ETFs are bleeding. In the first half of 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $5.4 billion—the first half-year period in history to record net outflows. From August 12 to 14, there were three consecutive trading days of outflows totaling about $248 million. Strategy, once the market’s most stable buyer, has been a seller for four consecutive weeks. Institutions are selling, ETFs are fleeing, who will catch the falling knife? Third, regulation is playing dead. The Senate has entered a five-week recess, and the CLARITY Act has made no progress. Prediction markets show the probability of the act passing in 2026 has fallen below 20%. Without regulatory clarity, big money dares not enter. It’s not that BTC doesn’t want to rise, but the funds at the door have been cut off. Signals of reversal are accumulating. Inflation data is improving. July CPI was moderate, PPI remained flat compared to last month. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation has "slightly improved." Market expectations for a September rate hike have dropped from over 70% to about 33%. Goldman Sachs directly stated: the likelihood of a rate hike in September is very low. The Fed has held steady for the fifth consecutive time, keeping the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Rate hike expectations are ebbing, liquidity expectations are improving. What does this mean for BTC? Lagging, but not absent. Oil price decline → inflation cooling → rate hike expectations falling → dollar weakening → risk appetite recovering—this transmission chain reacts immediately in the stock market but takes longer in the crypto market. BTC’s spring has been compressed for five weeks; the tighter the compression, the stronger the rebound. Three variables this week might be the "switch": Early Wednesday (August 19): The Fed releases July meeting minutes. The market wants to see: besides the known 3 dissenters, how many members lean toward a rate hike? Strait of Hormuz: Iran and Oman are reaching an agreement on shipping routes. If a joint statement is issued and shipping volume improves, the geopolitical premium on oil prices will fall → inflation pressure eases → risk appetite further recovers. Friday (August 21): US August manufacturing and services PMI preliminary values. If weak, it will further cement expectations that the Fed will hold steady in September. Any confirmation of these three signals could trigger BTC’s catch-up rally. It’s not that BTC can’t keep up with US stocks, but the market’s "risk appetite switch" hasn’t fully flipped yet. AI siphoning, ETF outflows, regulatory vacuum—triple suppression has kept BTC pinned at 63,000 for five weeks. But facing a macro turning point, lagging is better than missing out. Five weeks of sideways movement is not the market resting—it’s the market gearing up for a big move. Both bulls and bears are stocking ammunition. The tighter BTC’s spring is compressed, the stronger the rebound will be. $BTC $ETH $OKB