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#消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约
零售越烂，BTC越该涨
昨晚7月零售销售环比-0.6%，预期+0.1%，九个月来首次转负。剔除汽车-0.3%，剔除汽车汽油还-0.2%，全面凉。退税花完了，Prime Day挪到6月透支完了，美国家庭兜里钢镚儿见底了
通胀这边配合，周三CPI 3.4%，核心2.5%，PPI从5.5%降到4.7%，全低于预期。经济掉链子、通胀往下走，你是沃什你加不加？CME显示9月加息概率从50%砸到30%，9月按兵不动板上钉钉，该讨论的是年底放不放降息口风
盘面$BTC 在63000附近磨上方65000密集成交区，放量站上去空头止损盘能推很远；下方62000支撑。$ETH 1880趴着，1900没站稳但弹性大，突破1900看2000，支撑1850。$XAU 最猛，伦敦金现4375纽约金期货4432昨晚冲到4454，高位反复摩擦，4400回踩不破就是多
上一轮BTC翻倍，现货ETF是一方面，真正点火的是降息预期。现在一个味儿。当然真衰退了BTC也得跌，但那是下半场。预期阶段，坏消息就是好消息
9月FOMC之前，每出一个烂数据，都是给风险资产发糖
币多多超市
#CLARITY表决待定, SEC rules have not been implemented
This regulatory operation really made me laugh.
Atkins stubbornly insisted that Congress wouldn't do it, so he decided to hold a meeting at 10 a.m. on the U.S. East Coast to vote on Regulation Crypto. I said I didn't see the SEC's related content and checked, and it turned out the Thursday notice was canceled, citing "unforeseen scheduling issues" as the reason for the new date. That's it? 5 million startup waiver, 75 million fundraising, de-securitization safe haven—all empty promises
Then CLARITY is even more outrageous. Didn't they say it would pass? I thought I could finally make it through, but the Senate went on recess and said on September 15. 60 votes can't be collected; Republicans have 53 votes short of 7 Democrats. The two who defected before have now withdrawn because the moral clause was not reached. Polymarket's probability dropped from 82% to 16%, even worse than my holdings
Right now, the administration is stuck and the legislative side is stuck too, both sides are giving up together. That guy in the White House tweeted the day before yesterday saying they can't wait any longer, and that the SEC will just withdraw the meeting—can you believe it?
The market is honest too: $BTC hit 62,500, $ETH dropped to around 1,860, $SOL 75 wobbled, all falling. I've figured it out: if you still can't get through the three weeks of September, there's no chance this year, and next year's election year is even less likely. Even if the SEC reschedules, solicits opinions, goes through the process, and then implements the issue, a year will still be fast, and whether the chair will be replaced then is uncertain
The most ridiculous thing is that Hyperliquid and the others don't even wait. They go in when needed, and the regulators are still figuring out where to open the door—they've already opened the windows
Don't expect any short-term positive news; take another look on September 15. This circle isn't something to wait for regulators to come out of. BTC, ETH, SOL—I'll just give it a bit and play dead. All BTC long positions are stuck in shareholders, so a little volatility is nothing. I've seen big scenes before.
When communicating, don't treat it as advice—the money is yours 🤪.
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