
Post
阿简在路上
Show original
参议院多数党领袖John Thune通过发言人确认,8月暑休前不会就CLARITY法案进行投票,但下个月会有一次。而参议院暑休期是8月10日到9月11日左右,所有回来后大概有三周时间处理这个问题
所以这就是我昨天那篇内容里留的悬念的确定性答案,法案没有夭折,但年内通过的时间窗口被实质性压缩了。从预测市场接近腰斩的跌幅就能看出市场已经不太相信年内能通过,当然这跟法案会失败完全是两回事
另外,此次暑休前参议院优先处理的是政府拨款延续决议、俄罗斯制裁法案、还有一堆人事提名,CLARITY法案在国会议程里的优先级排序,本身就说明它现在还不算一个必须立刻解决的事项,这个信息或许比法案文本本身的进展更能反映它真实的政治权重。我们也别在9月初就急着price in一个立刻会发生的利好了
Today is the deadline for the U.S. Senate's summer recess. Although Ajian no longer holds much expectation for procedural progress on CLARITY before the recess, regardless, after today, the market's expectations for the bill will undergo a concentrated adjustment. Even if there is no substantive vote today, as long as the Senate gives a clear statement like "priority handling in September," the market will most likely interpret it as positive, because the uncertainty itself has been narrowing.
So it’s not surprising if there is no progress today; it would only be surprising if there were procedural advances beyond expectations. I suggest every trader check the congressional schedule and mainstream crypto media more frequently later today, as this is one of the few moments this month worth closely watching for market news.
Especially the stablecoin interest payment clause, which is the provision in the entire bill that most directly affects the actual interests of ordinary users. If this clause is compromised or weakened, it will be a substantial negative for the long-term user appeal of the stablecoin industry. It deserves separate tracking and should not be overshadowed by the big news of whether the bill passes overall or not.
Finally, tracking CLARITY over the past few months has also made me realize one thing: legislative news cannot be judged solely by the final outcomes of passage or failure. Every procedural milestone in between (committee votes, scheduling, pre-recess deadlines) is itself an independent information point that can be used for judgment.
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
Replies
No comments yet. Be the first to reply!
Trending crypto
BTC/USDTBitcoin
$64,199.9+0.00%
ETH/USDTEthereum
$1,889.45+0.01%
BICO/USDTBiconomy Token
$0.0382-0.11%
Today’s market buzz
1#AIInfraEarningsWatch


2#CPIToResetFedBets
3#AIInfraFundingDiverges

