ETFs are buying, whales are selling—who really calls the shots on the 65,000 level?
Have you ever felt this way lately—
Open the news, and it's all good news.
"U.S. spot crypto ETFs saw a combined net inflow of about $1.1 billion last week."
"BlackRock IBIT raised nearly $200 million in a single day."
"Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive days."
Let's turn to the market—
Bitcoin at $64,000.
Hanging here without moving.
Can't go up, can't get down. Like an invisible wall.
You stared at the candlestick chart, wondering: $1.1 billion has flowed in, so why hasn't the price risen yet?
The answer is simple—some are buying, others are selling. And the sellers are tougher than the buyers.
Let's start with the side where we bought it.
On August 5, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $244.4 million, while BlackRock IBIT alone took in $196.8 million.
On the same day, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $60.8 million. In the following days, Ethereum ETFs continued to see net inflows, with another $49.6 million inflows on August 7.
Last week, the combined net inflow of BTC and ETH spot ETFs was about $1.1 billion.
If this number were placed in 2025, Bitcoin could jump directly by 5 points.
But in August 2026, that would only be enough for Bitcoin to consolidate around $64,000.
Why?
Because the selling side is even more aggressive.
Lookonchain detected an anonymous whale that sold a total of 7,513 Bitcoins over the past three weeks, with a total value of about $486.9 million.
487 million. Three weeks. One person.
And that's not all.
On-chain analyst Yu Jin detected that an address suspected to belong to miners had deposited a total of 6,494 Bitcoins to Binance over the past 20 days, worth $421 million, at an average price of $64,798.
A portion of the Bitcoin was received a year ago from the institutional exchange FalconX, at an average price of $116,110.
After holding for a year, it dropped 44%, and I started cutting losses to move to the exchange.
The combined selling pressure of these two stocks — whales 487 million + miners 421 million = over $900 million in sell-offs.
Meanwhile, ETF buying last week totaled only $1.1 billion.
All in all, net buying is less than $200 million.
That's why $1.1 billion flowed in, and the token price was still hovering around 64,000.
The buying and selling orders were evenly matched.
What's even more intriguing is that BTC and ETH are moving on completely different paths.
On the Bitcoin side, on August 10, it turned into a net outflow of about $91 million.
On the Ethereum side, it still maintained a small net inflow of about $5.3 million on the same day.
Funds are diverging.
On August 2, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $812.3 million, the second highest in history. On the same day, Ethereum ETFs also saw a net outflow of $152.3 million.
But in the following days, Ethereum was the first to resume inflows, while Bitcoin continued to fluctuate.
The market is voting with its feet: In the short term, Ethereum's narrative is more optimistic.
So now the problem becomes—
Is the 65,000 level a top or bottom?
Bears say: whales are selling, miners are selling, ETFs are flowing out again, 65,000 is the ceiling.
Bulls say: The proportion of long-term holders has reached a record high. The ETF's cumulative net outflow for the year has reached about $5 billion, but the token price is still at 64,000, indicating a strong bottom.
Who is right?
I don't know. But I do know one thing—
The current market is no longer one where "buying ETFs means you can win effortlessly."
When ETFs first launched in 2024, as soon as funds came in, the price of the coin surged—straightforward and straightforward.
The 2026 scenario is much more complex: ETF buying, whale sell-offs, miner offloads, macro data—four forces are competing simultaneously.
Once CPI data is released tomorrow night, it could directly disrupt this balance.
To be honest—
If I were to allocate crypto assets now, I wouldn't just look at ETF fund flows.
I look at three things:
First, at the 65,000 level, who is selling?
Whales are selling, miners are selling—but are they panic-selling, or are they planning to reduce their positions?
Looking at the data, 7,513 tokens were executed in a planned manner over several weeks, not out of panic.
Planned selling is scarier than panic selling. Because you know he'll keep selling.
Second, the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
Ethereum ETFs have seen consecutive net inflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have seen repeated outflows—if this trend continues, the ETH/BTC exchange rate could continue to rise.
Third, tomorrow night's CPI.
Oil prices just broke 100, and if CPI exceeds expectations, the Fed tightens its grip, forcing all risk assets to be repriced.
Don't be fooled by the headline "$1.1 billion inflow."
Inflows do not mean an increase, and outflows do not mean a crash.
Right now, in this market, buying and selling are locked in a war of attrition.
Whoever can hold out until the end is in the final count.
65,000 won't be the end.
But before you get over, you have to survive this war of attrition.
What do you think about tomorrow night's CPI? Will BTC fall below 63,000, or will it use data to surpass 66,000?
$BTC$ETH$SOL #现货ETF资金分化, BTC selling pressure remains
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