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Mulight沐光
Mulight沐光
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NVDA今年YTD才涨了7%,费城半导体指数同期涨了近30%。AI算力之王,跑输了自己所在的板块。 NVDA基本面没出问题。Q1财报营收同比+85%创新高,数据中心业务一条腿就能碾压整个芯片行业。问题出在市场叙事在变,SK海力士7月底业绩miss之后,整个AI trade出现了明显的获利了结。NVDA、MU、AMD当天一起被砸,AI概念不再是买了就涨的确定性。 市场在给AI估值挤水分。去年底到今年初那波暴涨,透支了太多预期。现在NVDA earnings还是beat,但股价反应越来越钝——业绩够好,但优秀已经被市场当成基准线了。 这轮AI估值回归还没走完。9月Broadcom财报是个关键节点——如果AVGO的AI芯片指引继续超预期,整个板块会重新获得叙事支撑。在此之前,NVDA和存储链MU、海力士会继续在区间震荡。 HBM库存去化进度、超大规模云厂商Q3 capex指引、AVGO9月财报的AI revenue guidance。三个如果都正面,下半年AI半导体还有一波。 以上不构成投资建议,预测市场有风险,判断请基于自己的研究
Mulight沐光
Mulight沐光
After going through this round of Big Tech earnings reports, I found something very interesting—the market has started grading each company's AI spending, and the score differences are ridiculously large. Microsoft and Amazon scored high. Both companies' cloud business growth exceeded expectations, and AI-related revenue is already reflected in their earnings reports. Andy Jassy clearly accounted for AI spending during the call, and Wall Street bought it. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Oracle collectively gained $1.9 trillion in market value over three days. Meta and Alphabet tell a different story. Meta has fallen for 11 consecutive days, with Zuckerberg's personal net worth evaporating by $17.8 billion. Meta's AI direction is actually fine—they just released the Muse Code programming Agent and their cloud business is doing well—but the problem is the input-output ratio hasn't been validated yet, and the market has no patience. The most critical indicator is the growth rate of cloud business revenue. ADWEEK has a very apt saying—the cloud business is the cash engine that keeps the $725 billion AI bill alive. Whoever can prove with cloud revenue that AI is already making money gets the license to keep burning cash. Those still just painting a rosy picture get voted out by the market. Next, let's see if Meta can clearly tell the story of monetizing AI in the next quarter. The cloud business news caused the stock price to rebound 9%, indicating the market is willing to give a chance—but the condition is to see real money. The above does not constitute investment advice; individual stock judgments should be based on your own research.

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