Why would Morgan Stanley dare to set a target price of 300 for a stock that dropped from 225 to 108?
SpaceX, the largest IPO in human history, once approached $3 trillion in market value on its first day of listing.
And then? It plummeted all the way. The 52-week high was $225.64, now down to just $115—nearly halved.
The financial report showed revenue of $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion.
And then? It continued to fall 6.5% in after-hours trading.
Unexpected earnings results have been met with unexpected sell-offs.
Doesn't it sound familiar? The script of all the positive news has been played out in the chip sector, and then moved to space.
So here's the question—why does Morgan Stanley, this "old fox," still dare to set a target price of $300?
Not because they were foolish.
It's because the valuation logic is completely different.
Morgan Stanley uses a method called SOTP—the segment valuation method.
Simply put, it's like splitting a company into four parts, settling accounts separately, and then adding them up to the end.
The results after tearing it down were terrifying:
Space business (rocket launches): $8 per share
It's the company that sent humans to Mars, one of only two in the world capable of recycling rockets—Morgan Stanley thinks it's only worth 8 yuan.
Network and Starlink: $128 per share
A satellite internet empire with 12 million users and annual revenue exceeding $10 billion—worth 128 yuan.
X platform and Grok AI: $12 per share
Musk spent 44 billion to buy the social platform, plus a self-developed large model—priced at 12 yuan per package.
Enterprise AI business: $152 per share
— Accounting for more than half of the total valuation.
Do you understand?
Morgan Stanley thinks this company is worth 300 yuan. Among them, the rocket is worth only 8 yuan, and the AI value is 152 yuan.
And what is the current stock price? $115.
It can't even cover Starlink alone.
In other words, the current market pricing is—Starlink giving away freebies, Rocket giving away freebies, AI being a negative asset.
Deutsche Bank puts it even more bluntly: based on current market value, the market's pricing for SpaceX's AI business is close to zero.
A company with AI business quarterly revenue of $2.561 billion, a 247% year-on-year increase, and has just signed multi-billion dollar monthly computing power contracts with Anthropic and Google—
The market said: This thing isn't worth much.
Do you think this makes sense?
But the market has its own logic.
On August 6, SpaceX experienced its first large-scale lock-up unlock.
911.5 million internal shares will be granted free trading rights. Currently, only about 5% of tradable shares are tradable, but after the lock-up is lifted, this will double to 12%.
At the current stock price, its value exceeds $100 billion.
Meanwhile, short positions have already bet $24.6 billion, with $7.3 billion in unrealized profits still increasing their positions.
Twenty-seven institutions unanimously called for a "buy" position, with an average target price of $236. Bears are both floating and increasing their holdings.
Both sides are proving themselves with real money.
I've rarely seen this kind of split between bulls and bears in my career.
What inspiration does that offer us?
AI valuation is undergoing a shift from "concept" to "cash flow."
SpaceX's AI business has already signed cloud service contracts worth tens of billions of dollars annually. Grok 4.6 will be released next week, feeding all of SpaceX's more than twenty years of engineering data into model training.
AI is not a story.
It is a reality that is happening.
And the market now rates this reality as—zero.
Either the market is right, and AI is worthless.
Either the market is wrong, and someone is selling gold at ankle prices.
SpaceX's financial report is not just a financial report, but a capital verification.
The lifting on August 6th is not a restriction, but a demon-revealing mirror.
Bears are betting that early investors will panic sell. The bulls are betting that the market will finally see the true value of AI.
I was watching the show, and also doing the math.
$BTC$ETH$xSPCX #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable
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