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Written before SpaceX, at 4 a.m. $SPCX earnings report, I won’t stay up late waiting for the report, so here’s an early preview for sharing only What are the key points to watch in this SPCX earnings report? 1. SPCX’s earnings can’t be viewed solely through the lens of traditional aerospace company financials; the core focus should be on balancing AI capital expenditure and revenue. 2. Currently, the only business truly generating profit and cash flow for SPCX is the Starlink business. Reviewing revenue for 2025 and Q1 2026, Starlink remains the main source of corporate income. Therefore, the market’s main concern is Starlink’s business growth, profitability, and whether it can support the company’s current capital expenditures. 3. The market’s current worry is whether Starlink’s profitability can cover SPCX’s AI business and aerospace investments, and whether the company can demonstrate a transition from "high growth, high burn" to "high growth but with controllable cash flow." The biggest concern in the Q2 earnings season is excessive capital spending without effective profitability. 4. Regarding AI business development, if Starlink supports current operations, SPCX’s AI business is the core future profit driver. Investment is about trading expectations and the future, so AI represents future profitability. The focus here is on revenue from AI data centers and computing power businesses. The validation logic for this segment depends on AI revenue, AI capital expenditure, AI contracts, and the timing of future revenue realization. If revenue, contracts, and capital spending all rise, the market can accept it. The most worrying scenario is rising capital expenditure without a corresponding increase in AI revenue and orders, which would raise concerns about capital spending. 5. The company’s overall capital expenditure and cash flow: operating cash flow minus capital expenditure equals free cash flow. This is a key metric because if free cash flow continues to decline sharply, it will increase market concerns about SPCX’s future financing and AI business expansion. 6. Starship business: this is absolutely central to SPCX’s future AI commercial capability and valuation. The company has clearly identified Starship as a core driver of long-term growth strategy. Therefore, in Q1 2026, the company increased capital spending on Starship. In subsequent earnings calls, the commercialization timeline and unit launch cost reduction speed for Starship will be key points of focus. 7. Falcon 9 and government contracts: the number of Falcon 9 launches, commercial launch revenue, NASA contracts, U.S. Department of Defense contracts, and Falcon 9’s future schedule are all key data points. The market needs to know whether Falcon 9’s business growth mainly comes from external commercial and government customers or internal use, as the economic implications differ. #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Relationship between SPCX earnings and the large stock unlock on August 6 1. Tonight’s earnings will determine the short-term impact of the upcoming stock unlock. Positive earnings can hedge against price pressure from the unlock; negative earnings will mean SPCX faces double pressure. 2. If earnings are poor combined with the August 6 stock unlock pressure, this week will bring further pressure on SPCX’s stock price. This is a fundamental and market supply battle. 3. Personally, if earnings are positive, watch the situation after the August 6 unlock, especially next week’s stock performance to see if there’s a buying opportunity. August 6 is only the first unlock; future market concerns about stock unlocks will depend on the effect of this earnings report. If earnings are poor plus stock unlock, the stock price will inevitably face double pressure and continue to fall. Before the unlock, the stock price may accelerate its decline short-term, forming a short-term undervalued phase, which could actually be a buying opportunity, waiting for a rebound after the unlock. The market trades on future expectations. Without earnings, the market will price in the stock unlock early, causing the stock price to fall, but after the unlock, the stock price may rebound. How long the rebound lasts depends on the company’s fundamentals. This applies not only to stocks but also to the crypto space.