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BullRiderPK
A major signal that Bitcoin's next rally may be beginning is starting to emerge.
Historically, bull markets unfold as long-term holders (LTHs) gradually distribute the $BTC they accumulated at much lower prices while demand from new buyers pushes prices higher.
Previous cycles have followed a similar pattern:
• LTHs sell part of their holdings during the first rally.
• They aggressively accumulate again during the correction.
• Once accumulation ends and distribution resumes, a much stronger second rally often follows.
In this cycle, the first rally lasted from January 2023 through December 2025. During that period, LTHs actively bought and sold, but during the following correction they accumulated Bitcoin at a pace that far exceeded their selling.
Now that accumulation trend has stalled, and LTH supply has started to decline again—a pattern that has historically marked the beginning of the second leg of the bull market.
The timing is different this cycle. The gap between the first and second rallies was around 8 months in 2013, 17 months in 2017, and 16 months in 2021. This time, roughly 31 months have passed.
The extended timeline likely reflects structural changes in the market, including the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, sustained institutional demand, and continued accumulation by a new class of large investors.
One fact stands out: long-term holders still control the largest Bitcoin supply in history, and that supply has now begun to decline.
If history rhymes, this could be the early stage of Bitcoin's next major rally.
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