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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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7月29日,美联储连续第五次维持利率不变,3.50%-3.75%。 但12个投票委员里,3个人投了反对票——洛根、哈马克、卡什卡利,全都要求立刻加息25个基点。 这是2016年以来,美联储第一次在同一次会议里出现三张方向一致的反对票。 消息出来,标普500跌1.5%,纳指跌1.7%,道指跌2.19%。 比特币瞬间跌了约1%,最低到63,890美元。 朋友圈刷屏了——“鹰派来了”“9月必加息”“赶紧跑”。 但我加仓了。 为什么?因为99%的人只看到了3张反对票,没看到沃什发布会里的3个细节。 细节一:沃什在发布会上释放了明确的鸽派信号。 他淡化AI带来的通胀压力,说AI相关产品涨价是局部现象,不是整体通胀全面抬头。 他把近期市场利率上升归因于经济强劲。 最关键的一句——市场利率的上行,本身已经在替代加息。金融市场已经替美联储完成了部分紧缩工作。 什么意思?沃什在说:“债市已经帮我加息了,我不一定非要动基准利率。” 这不是鸽派是什么? 细节二:9月加息概率,不升反降。 会前,市场定价9月加息概率超过80%。 发布会后,直接降到接近60%。 到8月4日,CME数据显示9月加息概率约67%,但边际变化的方向是下降的。 市场的第一反应永远是情绪。第二反应才是方向。 方向是鸽派。 你是在第一反应里恐慌割肉,还是在第二反应里看到了机会? 细节三:美元指数暴跌。 7月28日到30日,美元指数连续三天下跌,累计跌超1.5%,失守100点关口。 美元跌,风险资产的压力就在释放。 比特币能守在63,000美元上方,说明潜在需求依然坚实。 3张反对票吓跑了散户。美元暴跌告诉了聪明钱:压力在释放。 我的操作很简单: 不追高。在每一次宏观数据引发的恐慌性下跌中分批挂单。 63,000美元以下,每跌1,000美元挂一笔。 别人恐慌时,我在看细节。 接下来盯什么? 8月27日到29日,杰克逊霍尔年会。沃什会在8月28日发表主旨演讲。 摩根士丹利说得很直白:如果7月和8月CPI连续超预期,沃什可能在9月转向更激进加息——这是当前最大的利率风险。 止损必须挂好。宏观交易员的超额收益,来自别人恐慌时你看到了细节。 $BTC $ETH $SOL #从降息到加息,联储分歧全公开
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
8.2 billion in losses, 70% stock price drop, selling at a loss—has Strategy's "Bitcoin faith" collapsed? 》 A company that calls itself a "Bitcoin super bull"— Sold at a loss when the token price was above 60,000. Net loss of $8.2 billion in the second quarter. The stock price has fallen 70% in one year. Tell me, is this a success or a failure? First, look at the facts—don't rush to take sides. On August 3, Strategy submitted documents to the SEC— From July 27 to August 2, 1,638 Bitcoins were sold, cashing out $104.7 million. The average price is $63,957. Holding cost $75,419. Each coin lost $11,462. Where did the money from the sale go? Half of the dividends are paid for preferred stock, and the other half is repurchased. A company that "never sells" is selling at a loss. And that's not even the most outrageous part. The company has bought 174,895 BTC year-to-date—while only 3,620 have been sold. The proportion of sells is so low it's almost negligible. But the question is—why sell? To pay dividends. STRC preferred shares have an annualized 12% dividend, so you have to pay it. Net loss for the second quarter was $8.22 billion, with a loss per share of $24.45. What's the difference between a company that pays dividends by selling Bitcoin and someone who pays back Huabei by using a credit card? Ran Neuner spoke even more harshly. The host of CNBC CryptoTrader publicly called on Strategy to pause its purchases— "Continuing to buy is eroding shareholder value." He also pointed out that when MSTR's stock price falls below net asset value, issuing shares to buy Bitcoin can actually dilute the Bitcoin content per share, directly harming existing shareholders. The logical contradiction is here— The company is selling coins at below cost to support a preferred stock product with a 12% dividend. Yet they hope to buy back at a higher price in the future. The lower you sell, the more you lose. The more you lose, the more you need to sell. But things are not that simple. The positive side will say: 842,000 BTC still remain, and it remains the world's largest corporate holder. $4 billion in cash reserves, enough to pay dividends for more than two years. Year-to-date buys are 48 times sold. "It's just a strategic rebalancing, not a collapse of faith." The opponent will say: "Never sell" has become a joke. From 32 probing sales, to 3,588 pieces, then to 1,638 pieces. The token sales quota has expanded from 1.25 billion to 5 billion USD. Saylor came out to draw a clear line— "I say 'never sell' when I say it to individuals. Strategy is a publicly listed company, not my wallet. ” Translated into plain language: My personal beliefs and the company's survival are two different things. What is truly frightening? Not Strategy, which sold 1,638 BTC. Once the market realizes that the company holding 4% of global Bitcoin is shifting from net buying to net selling—panic itself creates more selling pressure. MSTR's stock price has fallen from a high of $402 last August to $94 today. It fell 76.7%. This is not "faith." This is reality. $BTC $MSTR #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved

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