Post

#30-year US Treasury, is it the top or a new starting point? It sounds ridiculous, but the 30-year US Treasury yield has hit 5.27%, a 19-year high, yet the Federal Reserve Chair remains silent. In the past, when trading crypto or stocks, we watched the Fed's moves closely. Now, Washington has completely let go, not even bothering to provide forward guidance. The US Treasury market is left to price itself blindly. Yields keep rising, bond prices keep falling, and holders of long-term bonds are losing so badly their own mothers wouldn't recognize them, all while worrying daily about the US Treasury issuing new debt to crash the market. Many are shouting "historic bottom, buy blindly," but I advise you not to get carried away. Low rates used to be due to globalization dividends, stable inflation, and buyers stepping in. Now, all three are gone. With $40 trillion in US debt piled up, annual deficits and issuance, foreigners have stopped buying, the Fed has stopped buying, and you want to jump in as the buyer? For us crypto traders, it's even more realistic: a risk-free rate above 5% means isn't it better to just hold cash and earn interest? Who wants to take risks in highly volatile assets? The reason BTC can't hold above 65,000 is rooted in this. As long as long-term bond yields don't turn down, risk assets won't have a big rally, at best just choppy consolidation. Finally, I want to say: it's too early to talk about the top; we're only halfway up the mountain. Many treat 5.3% as a historic peak to buy the dip, but to me, that's just stubbornly clinging to the past. $BTC #DailyOrbit #30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead