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DeluDream
DeluDream
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Leopold向投资人发出了最新公开信。 他表示,基金7月净值回撤约67%,但由于上半年收益可观,年内整体仍保持约80%的正收益。未来将放弃高杠杆策略,调整为更加稳健的投资组合,希望重新出发。 不过,事情并没有表面那么简单。 此前被迫卖出的,主要是流动性最好的二级市场股票;留下来的核心资产,则是尚未上市的Anthropic股权。这部分资产最终价值,还要等IPO之后才能真正验证。 另外,基金规模是在业绩爆发后迅速扩大的。很多投资者是在高收益、高关注度时期才加入,因此虽然基金年内仍有盈利,但后期进场的资金很可能已经出现亏损。 这也是投资行业反复上演的剧本:小规模时业绩亮眼,吸引大量资金追高,规模迅速膨胀,随后市场进入调整,新投资者反而成为回撤的主要承担者。 无论海外还是国内,都出现过类似案例。真正能在资金规模持续扩大后,依然保持长期超额收益的管理人,始终是极少数。 市场从不缺少短期传奇,难的是在规模、周期和波动之间,持续创造回报。 目前看AI不是泡沫,只是超前定价导致的回撤,就好比2000年前后,全世界互联网股票也有一波泡沫大崩盘。但你现在回头看的话,2000年前后的互联网只是刚刚开始发展。
DeluDream
DeluDream
The most legendary fund in the AI bull market ultimately collapsed due to leverage. Leopold, 23 years old, a former OpenAI researcher and author of "Situational Awareness," founded an AI-themed fund with a firm bet on AGI. Using high leverage, he went long on AI infrastructure and shorted traditional software, achieving over 400% returns in the first half of the year. The fund's size rapidly expanded to about $45 billion, becoming Wall Street's most watched rising star. However, in July, the AI sector collectively corrected. Heavy holdings like Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, CoreWeave, and SK Hynix all plummeted, while the short positions unexpectedly rebounded, putting the fund under dual pressure. Facing margin calls, its approximately $16 billion public stock position was ultimately sold off entirely to Citadel, clearing all public holdings. Notably, the fund still retains some unlisted Anthropic shares, so it is not completely ended, but the high-leverage strategy suffered a severe blow. More dramatically, shortly after its positions were forcibly liquidated, multiple AI stocks rebounded, with SK Hynix surging over 17% in a single day. The market warmed up again, but it was no longer related to him. This experience once again reminds the market: investing tests not only judgment but also position management. Being right about the direction does not guarantee profits; if leverage is too high and risk is out of control, you often won't live to see the value realized. Those who truly survive cycles are never the most aggressive, but those who can stay at the table.

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