On July 31, Trump said two things at a cabinet meeting:
"I am becoming less and less trusting of Iran."
"We will strike them hard."
On the same day, U.S. media reported that the U.S. and Israel are preparing to launch the "most intense bombing yet" on Iranian energy facilities, targeting power plants and refineries. The operation could last the entire weekend.
Before the market even started, the market was already kneeling.
On July 30, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply from 22 the previous day to 5 ships, a decrease of 77%. Iran directly announced that "the strait is no longer passable normally."
You need to understand what this means—one-fifth of the world's oil trade flows through this waterway.
What is Bitcoin doing?
On July 31, BTC fell below $63,000, down 2.9% intraday. Coinbase's stock price plunged 10%.
Amazingly, on the same day, South Korea's Kospi index soared 17%, and chip stocks surged dramatically.
Bitcoin neither followed the stock market rally nor rose safely—it was stuck in the middle, not following either side.
Why?
Because the logic of oil prices is crushing everything.
Let's break down the transmission chain:
Step one: Oil prices have risen.
In July, Brent crude surged from $71 to above $87, a cumulative gain of over 20%. WTI has been volatile in the $80-86 range. Chevron's Q2 net profit surged nearly 400% year-on-year.
Second link: Inflation is coming back.
For every 10% increase in oil prices, the U.S. CPI directly pushes up by 0.3-0.4 percentage points. The World Bank warns that geopolitical tensions have led to a 1% reduction in supply, with oil prices rising by 11.5%.
Third step: No interest rate cuts.
At the July FOMC meeting, rates were kept unchanged 9-3 — three Fed officials voted against it, advocating for rate hikes. The market has already begun pricing in the possibility of a rate hike in September.
Cathay United Bank directly stated: If oil prices remain above $80 in the next two months, the pressure to raise rates in September will increase significantly.
Are you still waiting for a "rate-cutting cow"?
Even the Federal Reserve itself doesn't know when it will cut rates.
But things are not that simple. This is what I most want to say—
If the conflict escalates and oil prices surge to $100, the Fed faces a deadlock:
Interest rate hikes → recession → stagflation
If rates are not raised→ if inflation spirals out of control→ stagflation will still occur
In the 1970s, US stocks didn't rise for ten years because of stagflation.
Stagflation is the only macro environment in which Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative can hold true.
Bitcoin was born after the 2008 financial crisis, and after the massive liquidity injection in 2020, Bitcoin surged—Bitcoin never rose in "good times," but when "the old system had problems."
So what you see now is a fragmented market:
Short-term: Oil prices→ inflation→ rate hike expectations→ tightening liquidity→ BTC under pressure (63,000 BTC is proof)
Mid-term: If stagflation really arrives → fiat credit collapse→ BTC's "digital gold" narrative will awaken again
Short-term negative news, but potentially huge positive medium-term ones.
When the shell is aimed at the refinery, don't rush to bottom-fish altcoins.
Start by focusing on the candlestick chart of oil prices.
The top of oil prices is the bottom of BTC liquidity.
$BTC$XAU$CL #特朗普称对伊失去信心, preparing for another strike
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