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Serenity的中文贴
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接下来这段(一个月内)美股财报,基本就是 AI 主线的一次集中考试。
很多人只看财报当天涨跌,但我觉得更重要的是看几个问题:
AI 还在不在烧钱?
云厂商还愿不愿意继续加 Capex?
半导体设备订单有没有掉?
存储和 HBM 需求是不是真的撑得住?
数据中心的电力、散热、网络,能不能继续受益?
从这张日历看,覆盖面很完整。
谷歌、微软、Meta、亚马逊,看的是云计算、AI 广告、AI 基建投入。
特斯拉,看的是自动驾驶、Robotaxi、储能,以及市场还愿不愿意给它远期想象空间。
英特尔、AMD、Arm、Qualcomm,看的是芯片设计和算力周期。
KLA、Lam Research、Teradyne,看的是半导体设备和测试需求,这些公司往往能提前反映产业链信心。
SK 海力士、Kioxia、西部数据、SanDisk、Seagate,看的是存储周期,尤其是 HBM、DRAM、SSD、HDD 这些品类有没有继续涨价和扩产逻辑。
Vertiv、Eaton、Arista,看的是数据中心背后的“卖铲子”生意:电力、散热、交换机、网络基础设施。
Palantir、ServiceNow、Datadog、Atlassian、Figma,看的是 AI 软件到底有没有从故事走到真实付费。
所以这不是一张普通财报日历。
它更像是一张 AI 产业链体检表。
如果云厂商继续上调资本开支,说明 AI 基建还没停。
如果存储公司指引继续强,说明 HBM 和服务器 DRAM 需求还在。
如果设备公司订单健康,说明晶圆厂扩产预期还没被打断。
如果软件公司开始体现 AI 收入,说明 AI 不只是烧钱,也开始进入商业化阶段。
但反过来,如果这些公司集体释放谨慎信号,市场也会重新定价。
因为今年很多科技股涨的不是当下利润,而是未来几年 AI 增长的预期。
预期越高,财报容错率越低。
我的看法是:
这轮财报最值得看的不是谁超预期几个点,而是三个关键词:
Capex。
指引。
需求持续性。
短期股价会被情绪带着走,但中长期真正决定行情的,还是产业链有没有继续把钱投进去。
AI 主线如果没被证伪,波动只是波动。
但如果投入开始放缓,订单开始转弱,那市场就会从“讲故事”切回“算利润”。
接下来这几周,科技股的答案会一家公司一家公司公布。
看热闹的人盯涨跌。
真正做投资的人,看的是主线有没有变。
Serenity的中文贴
The earnings season for major US tech giants is here! This might be the real trigger that determines the direction of the next market cycle!!!!
Whenever the market reaches a critical point, it's often not the news but the earnings reports that truly decide the direction.
With the US tech giants' earnings season officially kicking off in July and August, over the next month or so, global capital will focus on a new round of competition around AI, semiconductors, cloud computing, and consumer electronics.
This is also worth paying attention to for the crypto market.
Most important earnings dates in July and August
📅 July 22
🔥 Google (GOOGL)
Key points to watch:
* Progress in AI search commercialization
* Latest performance of Gemini
* Cloud business growth
If AI investments continue to drive revenue growth, market sentiment is likely to heat up further.
Also on the same day:
🚗 Tesla (TSLA)
The focus is not on how many cars were sold, but on:
* Robotaxi
* Optimus robot
* AI training
* FSD commercialization
Tesla is increasingly looking like an AI company rather than a traditional automaker.
📅 July 23
Intel (INTC)
Can it regain its competitive edge in semiconductors?
Whether its foundry business continues to improve will also affect sentiment across the chip sector.
📅 July 29
Microsoft (MSFT)
This is one of the most important earnings reports for the entire AI market.
Market concerns:
✔ Azure cloud growth
✔ Copilot commercialization revenue
✔ Incremental gains from OpenAI collaboration
If Microsoft continues to exceed expectations, it could once again drive strength in the AI sector.
Also on the same day:
Meta (META)
Will the advertising business continue high growth?
Will AI recommendation algorithms keep improving monetization?
Will capital expenditures expand further?
These are key data points for investors.
📅 July 30
🍎 Apple (AAPL)
Can AI features truly drive iPhone upgrade cycles?
Can the services business maintain high growth?
Apple's performance will impact the entire consumer electronics sector.
At the same time:
📦 Amazon (AMZN)
AWS cloud business
AI infrastructure
E-commerce profit margins
All will be market focal points.
August remains exciting
Early August:
* Palantir (PLTR)
* AMD
* Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
These are important members of the AI computing power industry chain.
The real "grand finale" is:
August 26 — Nvidia (NVDA)
Almost every Nvidia earnings report has the potential to redefine the valuation of the entire AI sector.
Blackwell chip delivery status, data center revenue, and future guidance could directly influence the global tech asset trends.
Why should crypto investors also pay attention?
Many think US stocks are US stocks, and crypto is crypto.
In reality, the linkage between the two is getting stronger.
In the past two years, it’s clear that:
👉 AI concept stocks rise, and risk assets generally benefit.
👉 When Nasdaq hits new highs, BTC and ETH often attract more capital attention.
👉 If tech giants collectively beat expectations, global risk appetite increases, and capital may flow further into crypto markets.
Conversely, if several leading companies simultaneously give pessimistic guidance, not only will US stocks come under pressure, but crypto sentiment may also be affected in the short term.
Therefore, this month-plus period is not only a critical window for US stocks but also an important timeframe that digital asset investors cannot ignore.
My view
The real factor determining market direction in the future may not be the endless daily news but the "report cards" delivered by these tech giants.
Is AI truly a real demand or just a capital story?
Can corporate profits support current valuations?
These answers will gradually be revealed in the upcoming earnings season!!!
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