this is something that haunts me
there are a lot of reasons to be bullish
and a lot of reasons to be bearish
re: being a HTF LTCG guy and selling it all because BTC dipped under the 50 week MA (or whatever) - i just can't help shake the feeling that this is, as i've said many times, more a bizarro world, stretched-out 2019 rather than a post-parabola "risk is broadly breaking down" 2017/2021 style culmination leading to years of pain.
where if you do sell it all, BTC only moves down modestly, and then comes roaring back extraordinarily sooner than anything expects, and then we're back on for 150k, 200k, a big alt season (eth 10k, sol 400 or whatever), etc
i say this as someone who has taken a fair amount of profit - had i not done so already, i'd be absolutely shitting my drawers right now with indecision
This is why I’d like to see Junk hold the line
Since the ETFs launched in Jan 2024 we’ve basically moved in near-lockstep with HYG outperforming TLT
Whilst this is still in an uptrend, think we’re just going to follow it a la ‘higher for longer’ with these shakeouts and consolidations along the way
Also, from the article I wrote over a year ago on ‘financial deepening’, we have been stuck at Q3 2020 as it relates to an absolute level on Global M2 / Global GDP — where the delta between these two is a sort of ‘nominal excess liquidity’ that can be financialized (and often is…)
Look at prior cycles and see how the YoY delta between these two is more like 2019 and has been for a long while — I still believe this at least partially explains the lack of breadth in crypto this cycle
(Obvs this is a very crude measure as 1. lagging because of how data is released and 2. primarily shifts on day-to-day changes in the Dollar — nonetheless useful imo)
The relationship between stablecoin dominance and real rates that had been consistent since the ETFs launched has diverged since October — perhaps a combination of gov shutdown + post-10/10 dynamics
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