#30YrYieldTopOrStart
About 30YrYieldTopOrStart
After the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, a 2007 high, long-end pricing split fast. JPMorgan pulled its Fed hike call from H2 2027 to this December and lifted end-2026 targets: 10-year to 4.85% from 4.70%, 30-year to 5.40% from 5.20%. Two forces pull back: US-Iran talks sent oil down over 7% intraday, easing the inflation prop; and Japan selling Treasuries to fund yen intervention would lift yields, though Bessent's FIMA repo lets Tokyo get dollars without selling. 5.3% is the anchor to watch.
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Se on hieman huvittavaa – historian klassisin esimerkki: Yhdysvaltain 30 vuoden valtionvelkakirjojen tuotto on korkeimmillaan kesäkuussa 2007, joten onko talouskriisi?
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Useampi kuin yksi merkittävä nimi vertasi Yhdysvaltain 30 vuoden valtionvelkakirjojen tuottoa kesäkuuhun 2027 ja sanoi sitten, että viimeksi oli nopea talouskriisi.
Kysymys kuuluu, ovatko molemmat tuotot 5,27 %. Voivatko ne olla samat ympäristössä, jossa korot ovat 3,6 % ja 5,25 %.
┈➤ Pitkän aikavälin Yhdysvaltain valtionlainojen tuotot vs. liittovaltion rahastojen efektiivinen korko
Tehokas liittovaltion rahastojen korko syntyy yleensä, kun liikepankeilla ei ole riittäviä varantoja selvityksen aikana. Tämä on lyhytaikainen korko.
Koska Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjojen pitkäaikaisilla tuotoilla on pitkät syklit, ne vaativat enemmän määräaikaista korvausta, joten normaalisti pitkän aikavälin valtionlainojen tuotot ovat korkeammat kuin tehokkaan liittovaltion rahastojen korko (jäljempänä korko).
┈➤2026 vs 2017
Kesäkuussa 2017 korko oli 5,25 %, ja tuolloin Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjojen 5,27 %:n tuotto oli korkea, mikä johtui korkeampiin korkoihin.
Itse asiassa heinäkuun 2016 ~kesäkuun 2017 tienoilla 30 vuoden valtionvelkakirjojen korko oli matalampi, ja tätä ajanjaksoa pidettiin tuoton käänteisarvona.
Kesäkuussa 2017 30 vuoden Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjojen tuotto oli juuri noussut takaisin lähes korkoihin. Tuolloin Yhdysvaltain valtionlainojen tuotot eivät olleet korkeat suhteessa korkoihin.
Olipa kyse sitten kesäkuun 2017 inversiosta tai 30 vuoden valtionvelkakirjojen laskusta kesäkuun 2017 jälkeen, molemmat heijastavat 30 vuoden valtionvelkakirjojen tarjontapulaa, jota ohjaavat korkojen laskut ja taantuma-odotukset.
Vuonna 2026, kun korko on 3,6 % ja 30 vuoden valtionvelkakirjojen tuotot ylittävät selvästi aiemmat korot, suuntaus on noususuuntainen.
Tällä hetkellä koronnostoodotuksia odotetaan, eikä pitkän aikavälin Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjojen trendi ylittäisi tarjontaa, joten on hyvin todennäköistä, ettei taantuman odotuksia ole.
Syynä sanoa 'todennäköisin' on se, että Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjojen mittakaava kasvaa liian nopeasti ja siihen liittyy tiettyjä riskejä, joten motivaatio ostaa valtionvelkakirjoja turvapaikkojen vuoksi saattaa olla vähentynyt. Kuitenkin toinen turvasatama-ominaisuuksilla varustettu omaisuus – kulta – on myös nyt laskusuunnassa. Rehellisesti sanottuna, on suuri todennäköisyys, ettei taantuman odotuksia ole.
tvbee
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Yhdysvaltain valtionobligaatioiden riskit ovat jo paljain silmin nähtävissä, joten nostaako Fed todella korkoja syyskuussa?
Korkojen nostaminen nostaisi Yhdysvaltain valtionlainojen tuottoja ja lisäisi valtiovarainministeriön rahoituskustannuksia.
┈➤ "epäselvyys" Federal Reserven ja liittovaltion hallituksen välillä
Vaikka Federal Reserve on itsenäinen, Fedin ja valtiovarainministeriön välinen suhde on myös jonkin verran epäselvä.
╰✦ Federal Reserve siirtää nettovoitot liittovaltiolle
Toisaalta, vaikka Fed on omavarainen, sen on luovutettava jäljellä olevat nettovoitot Yhdysvaltain hallitukselle.
Yhdysvaltain hallitus ei myönnä rahoitusta Federal Reservelle. Lisäksi kulujen kattamisen, osinkojen maksamisen jäsenliikepankeille, aiempien tappioiden kattamisen ja lakisääteisen kertyneen voiton jälkeen Fed luovuttaa suurimman osan nettovoitoista valtiovarainministeriölle.
╰✦ Suurin osa Fedin tuloista tulee Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjoista
Toisaalta suurin osa Fedin tuloista tulee valtiovarainministeriön liikkeeseen laskemista valtionvelkakirjoja hallussapidosta (normaalisti).
Federal Reserve vapautti dollarilikviditeettiä ostamalla Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjoja ja asuntolainavakuudellisia arvopapereita (MBS),
Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjojen ostaminen/vähentäminen on yksi QE/QT:n päämuodoista. Siksi Fed on pitkään pitänyt hallussaan suuria määriä Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjoja, ja valtionlainojen korko on Fedin tuottojen pääasiallinen lähde.
Lisäksi, kun Fed ostaa MBS:ää QE:n aikana ja jatkaa niiden pitämistä jonkin aikaa sen jälkeen, MBS voi myös tuottaa korkotuloja. Mutta useimpina vuosina Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjat tuottavat enemmän korkoa. Liikepankkien pankkina Federal Reserve tarjoaa diskontointia, lainoja ja muita palveluita, ja voi myös tuottaa tuottoa. Mutta ellei kriisin aikana tämä osa tuloista on yleensä pienempi.
Kaiken kaikkiaan Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjat ovat yksi Federal Reserven tärkeimmistä tulonlähteistä.
Joten, eikö keskuspankki välitä Yhdysvaltain velasta ja hallituksen korkojen nostosta?
┈➤ Tarkoittaako inflaatio, että korkoja täytyy nostaa?
Brother Bee on analysoinut lukemattomia kertoja: öljyn hinnan aiheuttamaa inflaatiota ei voi täysin parantaa korkojen nostoilla.
Koronnostot pyrkivät pääasiassa hillitsemään odotuksia palkankorotuksista ja hillitsemään "palkka-inflaatio"-kierrettä.
Siksi myös korkojen nosto-odotukset voivat vaikuttaa tähän.
Syyskuun korkojen nostaminen vaatii vielä kahden kuukauden datan seuraamisen, eli heinä- ja elokuun. Jos kuluttajahintaindeksi ei heikkene, Fed saattaa pysyä muuttumattomana.
┈➤ Lopulliset ajatukset
Toisaalta Brother Bee ei usko, että syyskuun koronnostoa ei ole itsestäänselvyys. Tällaisella suhteella Federal Reserven ja liittovaltion hallituksen välillä, eikö heillä olisi mitään varauksia Yhdysvaltojen alistumista kohtaan?
Toisaalta odotukset syyskuun korkojen nostosta ovat jo hinnoitelleet, ja Yhdysvaltain valtionlainojen tuottojen nousu tarkoittaa käytännössä, että markkinat jo nostavat korkoja.
Brother Bee uskoo, että taseen vähentäminen voi olla sopivampaa kuin korkojen nosto.
Koska taseen leikkaaminen tuo myös odotuksia tiukentumaan, se auttaa hillitsemään palkankasvun odotuksia ja hillitsemään "palkka-inflaation" kierrettä. Kun tarkastellaan Yhdysvaltojen palkkojen kuukausittaista ja kuukausittaista kasvuvauhtia, palkat eivät osoita kiihtyvää trendiä.
Ero taseen alennuksen ja korkojen korotusten välillä on siinä, että jokainen koronnosto on kertaluonteinen kiristäminen, kun taas taseen alennus on asteittaista.
Taseen alennuksen aikana Federal Reserven hallussa olevat Yhdysvaltain valtionlainat lunastetaan automaattisesti eräpäivän päättyessä eikä niitä enää myydä kokonaan. Tämä vähentää vähitellen Yhdysvaltain valtionvelkakirjojen kysyntää ja vaikuttaa suhteellisesti pienemmästi.
Walshin alkuperäinen kanta oli ensin supistaa tase, sitten laskea korkoja.
Tämä on tietenkin Feng Xiongin henkilökohtainen näkemys; Fedin päätös saattaa edelleen riippua Yhdysvaltojen ja Iranin suhteista sekä inflaatiotrendeistä heinä-elokuussa.
📊 Everyone is watching Bitcoin’s price, but the real macro story is happening in bonds.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield just hit 5.27%. That’s the highest we’ve seen since 2007. When you can lock in 5% plus on long-dated government debt, every risk asset has to work harder to earn capital. That includes crypto.
The debate now is whether the Fed holds rates higher for longer, or pushes them up again if inflation refuses to cool. But this isn’t only about the Fed.
There are deeper forces keeping long-term yields up.
The U.S. deficit keeps expanding.
Treasury issuance is rising to fund spending.
Corporations are also issuing a lot of debt and competing for the same pool of investor dollars.
These are structural, not one-meeting problems. They will shape markets for quarters, not days.
At the same time there are offsets.
Oil prices coming down should help inflation ease and take pressure off rates.
And Japan is a wild card. If they intervene in the yen it could shake global bond markets and change demand for Treasuries.
So why does this matter for crypto.
Even with yields this high, Bitcoin has stayed strong.
Spot ETFs are still pulling in institutional money.
Long-term holders keep adding.
Key support levels have held instead of breaking.
The next step is simple. Bitcoin needs to take back major resistance to confirm a broader bull trend.
Right now the market is caught between two forces.
Higher yields make bonds more attractive.
But ETF inflows and real institutional demand keep strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term case.
Whichever side wins will likely set the tone for both traditional markets and digital assets.
Keep your eyes on macro. Watch liquidity. Let price confirm the story before you commit.
NFA. DYOR.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#EarningsWeekAhead #USJapanYenIntervention #30YrYieldTopOrStart $SOL $GIGGLE $GRVT
#30-year US Treasury, is it the top or a new starting point?
It sounds ridiculous, but the 30-year US Treasury yield has hit 5.27%, a 19-year high, yet the Federal Reserve Chair remains silent.
In the past, when trading crypto or stocks, we watched the Fed's moves closely. Now, Washington has completely let go, not even bothering to provide forward guidance. The US Treasury market is left to price itself blindly. Yields keep rising, bond prices keep falling, and holders of long-term bonds are losing so badly their own mothers wouldn't recognize them, all while worrying daily about the US Treasury issuing new debt to crash the market.
Many are shouting "historic bottom, buy blindly," but I advise you not to get carried away. Low rates used to be due to globalization dividends, stable inflation, and buyers stepping in. Now, all three are gone. With $40 trillion in US debt piled up, annual deficits and issuance, foreigners have stopped buying, the Fed has stopped buying, and you want to jump in as the buyer?
For us crypto traders, it's even more realistic: a risk-free rate above 5% means isn't it better to just hold cash and earn interest? Who wants to take risks in highly volatile assets? The reason BTC can't hold above 65,000 is rooted in this. As long as long-term bond yields don't turn down, risk assets won't have a big rally, at best just choppy consolidation.
Finally, I want to say: it's too early to talk about the top; we're only halfway up the mountain.
Many treat 5.3% as a historic peak to buy the dip, but to me, that's just stubbornly clinging to the past. $BTC
#DailyOrbit
The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.27%, its highest since 2007.
When "risk-free" money pays north of 5%, every risk asset, including crypto, has to earn its place all over again.
JPMorgan just pulled its Fed hike call forward from H2 2027 to this December, and nudged its end-2026 yield targets higher, with the 10-year now seen near 4.85% (from 4.70%) and the 30-year near 5.40% (from 5.20%).
The Fed held in July, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and the market is now pricing one as soon as September.
Here's what most headlines miss. This is not just about the Fed. The long end is climbing because investors are demanding a bigger term premium for US fiscal risk, with expected fiscal expansion widening the deficit further, plus a wave of Big Tech issuing their own bonds soaking up the same dollars. That is a slower, stickier force than any single rate decision.
Two things pull the other way:
· US-Iran talks knocked oil down over 7% intraday, cooling the biggest inflation driver
· The US-Japan yen intervention adds a twist, since Japan selling Treasuries to fund it could push yields even higher
Now the part that matters for us. Even with bonds paying 5%+, crypto has not folded. BTC is holding near $63K, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged four straight days of inflows, roughly $132M on Friday alone. The catch: BTC is still below its major moving averages, and analysts see $65K to $70K as the resistance zone it needs to reclaim to confirm any real reversal.
So the tug-of-war is playing out live:
· "Risk-free" yields pulling capital toward cash and bonds
· ETF demand quietly pulling it back into BTC
The long end sits right around 5.3%, a level many analysts now treat as the valuation anchor for risk assets this month, BTC included.
When "risk-free" bonds pay 5%+, how are you thinking about the balance between cash, yield, and crypto right now?
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
📊 Macro Watch: 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.27%—its highest level since 2007.
JPMorgan now expects the Fed could hike rates as early as December, while raising its long-term Treasury yield forecasts, reinforcing the view that higher yields may persist.
At the same time:
🛢️ Falling oil prices could ease inflation pressure.
💴 US-Japan currency coordination may influence Treasury demand without triggering large bond sales.
For $BTC, the picture is mixed:
🔹 Short term: Higher Treasury yields increase the appeal of "risk-free" assets, creating headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.
🔹 Medium term: If persistently high rates begin to weaken economic growth or confidence in sovereign debt, demand for scarce, non-sovereign assets such as Bitcoin could strengthen over time.
The 5.3% area on the 30-year Treasury may become one of the key macro levels to watch this month—not just for bonds, but for crypto as well.
Macro matters. Watch liquidity, yields, and price action together.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead
The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.27%, its highest since 2007.
When "risk-free" money pays north of 5%, every risk asset, including crypto, has to earn its place all over again.
JPMorgan just pulled its Fed hike call forward from H2 2027 to this December, and nudged its end-2026 yield targets higher, with the 10-year now seen near 4.85% (from 4.70%) and the 30-year near 5.40% (from 5.20%).
The Fed held in July, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and the market is now pricing one as soon as September.
Here's what most headlines miss. This is not just about the Fed. The long end is climbing because investors are demanding a bigger term premium for US fiscal risk, with expected fiscal expansion widening the deficit further, plus a wave of Big Tech issuing their own bonds soaking up the same dollars. That is a slower, stickier force than any single rate decision.
Two things pull the other way:
· US-Iran talks knocked oil down over 7% intraday, cooling the biggest inflation driver
· The US-Japan yen intervention adds a twist, since Japan selling Treasuries to fund it could push yields even higher
Now the part that matters for us. Even with bonds paying 5%+, crypto has not folded. BTC is holding near $63K, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged four straight days of inflows, roughly $132M on Friday alone. The catch: BTC is still below its major moving averages, and analysts see $65K to $70K as the resistance zone it needs to reclaim to confirm any real reversal.
So the tug-of-war is playing out live:
· "Risk-free" yields pulling capital toward cash and bonds
· ETF demand quietly pulling it back into BTC
The long end sits right around 5.3%, a level many analysts now treat as the valuation anchor for risk assets this month, BTC included.
When "risk-free" bonds pay 5%+, how are you thinking about the balance between cash, yield, and crypto right now?
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #DailyOrbit #EarningsWeekAhead #KoreaChipSelloff
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield just reached 5.27%, its highest level since 2007.
Why does that matter?
Think of investing like choosing between two jobs.
🏦 One job pays a guaranteed 5% with almost no risk (U.S. Treasuries).
🚀 The other could pay much more—but you could also lose money (stocks and crypto).
When the safe option starts paying over 5%, investors become much pickier about taking risks.
That's why higher Treasury yields can pull money away from assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks.
At the same time, JPMorgan now expects the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than previously expected, which keeps pressure on risk assets.
But there are other forces at work:
🛢️ Falling oil prices could help reduce inflation, easing some pressure on markets.
🇯🇵 Japan's currency intervention could push Treasury yields even higher if it involves selling U.S. bonds.
Despite all of this, Bitcoin has remained resilient.
📈 Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract investor money.
💰 Institutional demand hasn't disappeared.
⚠️ However, Bitcoin still needs to reclaim the $65K–$70K area to strengthen the bullish outlook.
Right now, the market is a tug-of-war:
🏦 Higher bond yields attract investors seeking safer returns.
₿ ETF inflows and long-term buyers continue supporting Bitcoin.
The next few weeks will show which force is stronger.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #ETFs #Macro #30YrYieldTopOrStart #EarningsWeekAhead #CLARITYActVoteWatch
🚨 MARKET UPDATE
BofA: Dollar Weakens as Fed Uncertainty Fuels Inflation Concerns 🏦📉
💵 Dollar Under Pressure:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined around 1.4% after the July FOMC meeting, as uncertainty surrounding Fed policy weighed on sentiment. However, firm 2-year Treasury yields suggest investors remain unconvinced that rate cuts are imminent.
📈 Long-Term Inflation Expectations Rising:
Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries continue moving higher alongside rising 5y5y inflation expectations, indicating markets are increasingly concerned about persistent inflation and the possibility of policy missteps.
⚠️ Why It Matters:
Higher long-term yields run counter to efforts to reduce government borrowing costs. A steeper yield curve may reflect weakening confidence in the current policy outlook and could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve if bond market volatility persists.
Markets across $BTC, $ETH, $XAU, $SOL, and $HYPE will be watching upcoming economic data and Fed signals closely.
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#USJapanYenIntervention
#USJapanYenIntervention
#EarningsWeekAhead
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
📊 While most traders are watching Bitcoin, one of the biggest stories is unfolding in the bond market.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27%—its highest level since 2007.
When investors can earn more than 5% from government bonds, every risk asset—including crypto—has to compete harder for capital.
Recent forecasts from major financial institutions point to the possibility of even higher long-term yields, while markets continue debating whether another Fed rate hike could arrive in the coming months.
But this isn't just about the Federal Reserve.
Long-term yields are also being pushed higher by:
📌 Growing U.S. fiscal deficits
📌 Increased government borrowing
📌 Heavy corporate bond issuance competing for investor capital
These are structural forces that can influence markets well beyond a single Fed meeting.
There are also offsets worth watching:
• Lower oil prices could help reduce inflation pressures.
• Currency interventions, particularly involving the Japanese yen, may add further volatility to global bond markets.
Why crypto investors should care:
Despite rising yields, Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting capital, and BTC has managed to defend important support levels.
The next challenge is clear:
Bitcoin still needs to reclaim key resistance before a broader bullish trend can be confirmed.
Right now, the market is balancing two powerful forces:
🔹 Higher bond yields pulling capital toward traditional assets.
🔹 Continued institutional demand supporting Bitcoin.
Whichever force wins could shape the next major move across both traditional finance and crypto.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
#DailyOrbit #BTC #ETH #Macro #Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead
$BTC $ETH $SOL#DailyOrbit
30-Year Treasury Yield Keeps Climbing, Intensifying Pressure on Crypto Markets
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield remains near multi-year highs, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could stay elevated for longer. The bond market is once again becoming the dominant macro force driving risk assets, and cryptocurrencies are among the biggest casualties.
For $BTC, $ETH, and the broader crypto market, higher long-term yields mean tighter financial conditions and a rising opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Institutional investors are increasingly rotating capital into government bonds that now offer attractive risk-adjusted returns, reducing liquidity available for digital assets.
The situation is becoming more concerning as markets reassess the likelihood of a prolonged restrictive Federal Reserve policy. If long-dated Treasury yields continue to climb or remain elevated, selling pressure could spread further across technology stocks and speculative assets, limiting the upside for both crypto and growth equities.
In the near term, the U.S. bond market may matter more than crypto-specific headlines. Until long-term yields begin to ease, any rebound in $BTC, $ETH, and altcoins is likely to face significant resistance, with macroeconomic headwinds continuing to dominate investor sentiment.
Follow me for the latest updates and in-depth discussions on the Crypto and Wall Street markets so you never miss the next major move.
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#KoreaChipSelloff
#USJapanYenIntervention
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
I am Cige. The 30-year US Treasury yield has reached 5.27%, hitting a new high since 2007. After breaking through the 2019 ceiling, the market is fiercely debating whether this is the top or a new starting point.
JPMorgan was the first to take a stance, moving up the Fed rate hike timing forecast from the second half of 2027 to December this year, and raising the 10-year yield forecast for the end of 2026 to 4.85% and the 30-year to 5.40%. This target level confirms the judgment of a new starting point. Two other variables create counteracting forces: the US and Iran returning to the negotiating table caused oil prices to plunge more than 7% in a single day, loosening the strongest pillar driving inflation expectations; the US-Japan joint currency defense introduced a technical variable—if Japan sells US Treasuries to raise intervention funds, it will push up long-end yields, but the FIMA repo tool named by Bessen allows Japan to obtain dollars without selling bonds, buffering potential pressure on US Treasuries from currency defense. Rate hike pricing is moving up, oil price expectations are moving down, and intervention financing is pending. The directional choice around 5.3% for the 30-year remains the valuation anchor for risk assets in August.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, the surge in long-term rates directly suppresses risk asset valuations, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, is under pressure. Rising US Treasury yields mean increased relative attractiveness of the dollar, causing some funds to flow back from risk assets to bonds. If yields continue to rise, BTC may test previous low areas. In the medium term, the 30-year yield hitting a new high since 2019 is itself a signal. When the world's safest asset starts offering over 5% risk-free returns, it means the holding cost of dollar credit is rising. If rates continue to rise and begin to undermine economic growth, the logic of dollar credit erosion will ultimately strengthen demand for non-sovereign asset
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK