The so-called altcoin season only existed before 2021. In the chart below, the others.d indicator represents the market cap share of altcoins after excluding the top ten crypto tokens. This should be the best perspective for observing the overall performance of the altcoin market. Before 2021, altcoins were creating higher highs and higher lows, with the focus continuously moving upward. It was undoubtedly an absolute upward trend for altcoins, commonly known as the altcoin season! However, after 2021, we can see from the chart that others.d is creating lower highs and lower lows, with the focus continuously moving downward, forming a downward channel trend. In 2025, it even broke below the long-term yellow upward trend line in the chart, despite a brief rise in the middle of the channel, which was only temporary. This is also the reason I mentioned in my X article that the altcoin market might maintain a stage-based and locally independent trend in the long term. It will not continuously experience a collective rise independent of Bitcoin. The key to breaking this situation lies in being able to break through the downward channel, no longer creating lower highs and lower lows. Additionally, if Bitcoin's leading role can bring sufficient liquidity spillover effects to the altcoin market in the future, then there is a chance to reverse this situation and add the greatest catalyst to new narrative themes for altcoins. Looking back at history, we find that every bull market corresponds to a period of loose monetary policy. 2013-2014 bull market: Corresponds to the Fed's continuous QE to address the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. 2017 bull market: Corresponds to the continuation of a low-interest-rate environment by global central banks, with abundant liquidity. 2021 bull market: Corresponds to unprecedented QE triggered by the pandemic, with the Fed and global central banks injecting trillions of dollars in liquidity. Although the background of this bull market is still similar to previous ones, it is far from reaching the state of liquidity excess seen in previous rounds. Of course, this also corresponds to the crypto market being much larger than in previous rounds. The notable feature of this bull market is the implementation and improvement of regulatory policies, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and the designation of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, undoubtedly providing a new window for liquidity injection. However, in terms of loose monetary policy, it currently seems far less than previous rounds. Of course, besides loose monetary policy injecting liquidity into Bitcoin, the conditions for an altcoin season are far more than these, but undoubtedly this is the most important anchor point for an altcoin season.