Helium’s monthly DC burns are up 86% since January, annualized revenue surpassed $32M, and cumulative subs just cleared 300k.
Yet HNT is down 63% YTD.
With an August halving, LatAm expansion, and MHNO alignment, a rerating may be in play.
@messaricrypto 🧵
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Helium has a long history.
Tokenomic redesigns, pivot from IoT to Mobile, migration to Solana, etc.
As fundamentals growth start to surge, the market is lagging in recognition.
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DC burns provide direct value accrual onchain, with carrier offload accounting for nearly 99% of burns.
Based on projected forward DC burns growth, HNT's valuation is nearing justification just on DC burns alone in our Base Case.
Full valuation in report.
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Yet, DC burns only tell part of the story.
Total Helium revenue including the MVNO business now exceeds $32M annualized.
This means that over 85% of Helium ecosystem revenue comes from the MVNO.
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While the MVNO revenue does not directly generate value for HNT holders today, the Nova Labs team has indicated that an alignment is under consideration.
Such an alignment could boost HNT's value significantly.
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The Helium MVNO only accounts for ~10% of DC burns, yet the MVNO generates an estimated 7x more revenue than DC burns.
This suggests the MVNO can deliver more value than expanding the carrier offload program based on current data.
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Hypothetically taking into consideration the Helium MVNO's business potential value in addition to the Carrier Offload business, we forecast revenues that would make HNT significantly underpriced.
Full model in report.
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Helium stands as DePIN's benchmark for many.
A market rerating would not only recognize Helium's performance but also provide much needed energy for DePIN as a whole.
Thread on growth catalysts, including the August halving and LatAm expansion tmr.
Link to report below.
Look Up: A Helium Valuation.
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