$LMND offers the highest 10-year cash flow return relative to its price among all stocks in our model, including:
1. $HIMS (great value, with risks)
2. $PLTR (strong, but overpriced)
3. $TSLA (costly, but TAM expansion supports good long term returns despite premium)
4. $OSCR (multiple expansion potential, but lower long-term free cash flow margin, underperforming $LMND’s return over 10 years)
5. $IREN (potentially higher short term cash flow return if $BTC growth or their AI pivot succeeds, but less certain with lower long-term margin potential as a hardware based business, trailing Lemonade's return expectations over 10 years)
6. $XYZ (good products, slower growth rates)
7. $FOUR (great company, conservatively valued, with less long-term upside)
Lemonade’s ability to scale revenue without proportional expense growth highlights the strength of an AI-first insurance company. As a scaled autonomous organization, the market vastly underestimates Lemonade’s cash flow margin potential.
Currently, 30% of the float bets on Lemonade’s bankruptcy, despite positive free cash flows, a growing $1B cash balance and a race towards profitability painting a stark divergence between market price and true value.
Our 2035 model projects Lemonade generating ~$2B in profit and trading around $777 per share with a moderate multiple in 10 years.
Discounting our 2035 price target at 15% annually (fair pre-profit safety margin) values $LMND at $190 today.
At a 25% annual discount rate (incredible margin of safety), it’s worth $83.43, yet it trades at only $40.
I’ve never had such conviction in a company’s product advantage and innovation rate at such a small size, with such a vast TAM, and the potential to sustain growth over so many decades. With its setup for best in class margin, selling for such a margin of safety, my mind is blown daily thinking about Lemonade's present ROIC opportunity.
Its ability to autonomously scale operations with limited added cost, combined with an all-in star co-founder duo in Daniel and Shai is what made me finally, after following the company for years, feel justified and extremely safe going all-in. Just before the free cashflow inflection and the market waking up to the the opportunity Lemonade presents.
*This is not financial advice. Only my own thoughts, my own investment decisions and my small team's research shared for your entertainment.
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