Do you panic if you drop slightly? Why should we be careful not to leverage too much? See how big the pullback was in the last bull market: ⚡ 2021-02-22: The "daily flash decline" brought about by the futures squeeze It just rushed to ~$58K over the weekend, and was hit by a high-leverage run on the same day to ~$46.7K, with an intraday amplitude of $11K and a record 24-hour maximum drop of about -19%. While slightly smaller than other pullbacks, it suggests the vulnerability of substantial leverage. 💥 2021-04-14 → 07-20: Medium-term crash (deepest in the whole cycle) On April 14, Coinbase swiped ~$64.8 K on the day of listing, and the high-level on-chain congestion, energy controversies and Chinese regulatory news fermented, and the maximum single-day drop on May 19 was more than -30%, and finally bottomed out ~$29.8 K on July 20, with a cumulative decline of about -54%. It took 3 months to return to a new high. 🌊 2021-09-07: El Salvador Fiat Day "Waterfall" On the first day of becoming El Salvador's fiat currency, Bitcoin plummeted from ~$52 K to ~$42 K intraday due to wallet failure + long liquidation, with a maximum instantaneous drop of about -17%, and recovered some of the losses on the same day. Key observations 1️⃣ 30 – 40 % "washout" is the norm in bull markets: the last round was truly fatal only once (-54% April–July), and the rest of the quick pullbacks were repaired within a few weeks. Here, as long as there is twice the leverage, it will be cleared. 2️⃣ Triggers: From macro panic (2020) to leverage overload (January and February), to policy and public opinion shocks (May and September), almost every time accompanied by on-chain or derivatives deleveraging. 3️⃣ The recovery speed is directly proportional to the depth: the deeper the drop, the longer the repair time; The -30 % level usually takes weeks, and the -50 % level takes months or even longer.
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