Capital Flows
Capital Flows
BTC-2.46%
ETH+1.74%
The macro regime continues to push capital out the risk curve as the credit cycle is in full swing We have not even seen the final move yet, and everything is setting up for this Let's dig in 🧵👇
We have seen a significant compression in credit spreads as inflation swaps have rallied What does this mean? Recession risk decreased but inflation risk has been increasing. In this type of environment the Fed should be way tighter, especially with inflation above 2% and the last CPI print showing acceleration.
Gallery 1
What is the Fed doing though? They are sitting on their hands and using the excuse of "path dependent language. As real rates on the short end fall, this is pushing assets like Bitcoin UP
Gallery 1
I have been laying out this dynamic in the credit cycle videos which can be found here:
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
This Credit Cycle Was Made by Central Banks—and Will End With Them
This will continue to push Bitcoin up until the Fed has to overcorrect and the economy starts feeling the pressure of higher yields, once these overlap, there will be massive selling pressure in BTC. These drivers for BTC have been laid out here:
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
The Melt-Up Before the Collapse: Building a Testable Thesis in Real Time Across Equities and Bitcoin
Gallery 1
Until the unwind begins, i am holding all longs I have opened:
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
HOLDING ES, RTY, and BTC long everything was laid out in this thread nothing has changed see the risk reward I laid out we continue to print $
All of this is setting up for FOMC which I laid out how to think about it here:
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
Some important things for macro flows this week: 🧵 We remain in a regime where stocks are skewed to the upside and bonds are skewed to the downside. Within this skew, we are going to see traders begin to get positioned for FOMC. Between now and FOMC, the major prints are the JOLTS and ADP print
Gallery 1
The most recent report is here laying everything out and I will be expanding on this further today:
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
The Credit Cycle, Money, and Monetary Correlations
Gallery 1
@profplum99 @Dionysus_666 well yeah been long with leverage if we make a top here, I will get stopped out in the money still so Im just holding winners at this point any thoughts on ES or ZN returns post FOMC? whatcha thinking for the trade?
Capital Flows
Capital Flows
We are entering one of the most violent periods in markets but this isn't driven by a recession, it's driven by the credit cycle The sheer amount of money being added to the system right now is creating an environment for equities that is very rare Let's dig in 🧵👇
Sourced fromtwitter
73.76K
251
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.